UMBC vs. Vermont Prediction, Pick & Odds: Expect a Shootout
The America East Conference matchup between the UMBC Retrievers and Vermont Catamounts is here to help bring legal sports betting to the Green Mountain State, and we offer our best UMBC vs. Vermont college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.
To secure a third consecutive season with at least 18 wins, UMBC (5-11, 0-1) needs to put in some effort. Currently enduring a six-game losing streak, the Retrievers haven't defeated Vermont (11-5, 1-0) since the regular season finale in 2021.
To go along with our College Basketball Best Bets for Tuesday, here is our best UMBC vs. Vermont prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UMBC vs. Vermont prediction
Over 153.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Vermont is in no jeopardy of losing this game outright, as it has won 24 consecutive home games against conference opponents. However, we are unsure if laying the points is smart, considering the Catamounts are 0-3 ATS as double-digit favorites this season. Thus, we are more attracted by the contrarian play of the Over, as none of Vermont’s last 10 games have exceeded 149 points, and it has held each of its previous eight opponents in night home games to 65 or fewer points.
We expect fireworks between these two teams, especially in Vermont’s case, as UMBC ranks as the seventh-worst defensive team in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Thus, the Catamounts should maximize most of their offensive possessions, as they take care of the basketball at a top 20 rate (they turn the ball over on 14.2% of their possessions). In addition, 37% of Vermont’s points (34th-most in the country) come from beyond the arc, as six of its top eight scorers shoot better than 35% from beyond the arc.
For an idea of how good Vermont’s offensive spacing is that usually leads to its barrage of 3-pointers, the Catamounts entered their game against Bradley with the Braves being the best team in the country in defending the 3-point line at the time (21% allowed). Vermont lit them up for 11 3-pointers on 29 attempts (37.9%), which is better than its season average.
We are also making the Over a three-star play, as UMBC plays at the third-fastest tempo in the country, and maximizing possessions in a game with an offense as good as Vermont’s suggests points should be scored in bulk.
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UMBC vs. Vermont best odds
Over bettors have several options on where to play across our best sports betting apps. We think that FanDuel makes for an excellent choice for Thursday's game.
KenPom has this game as an 87-70 Vermont victory, so we are happy to be getting four extra points compared to what the analytics say.
UMBC vs. Vermont odds
Caesars initially saw its total get bet up from 153.5 to 154.5 before returning to its original number. UMBC has seen the Over cash in 11 of its 15 games, while Vermont has an O/U record of 6-8.
Our best sports betting sites are in unison with a point spread of Vermont -16.5. However, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 have all reached highs-17.5, so it appears either sharp action is driving the lower point spread, or the sportsbooks felt they had enough liability on UMBC at the higher number. The Retrievers are 7-8 ATS, while Vermont has covered just four of its 14 games.
UMBC vs. Vermont game info
- Date: Thursday, Jan. 11 at 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU/ESPN+
- Location: Patrick Gymnasium, Burlington, VT
UMBC-Vermont pick made Thursday at 10:14 a.m. ET.
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