Uncovering potential big-money college football teams for 2022

Uncovering potential big-money college football teams for 2022. 45 teams have won more than 75% or at least 11 games ATS in a season in the last 10 years. The 45 in this chart went 282-98 SU and 295-80 Ats (78.7%) the rest of the way after their first four games.  

Narrowing the list of potential ATS breakout teams for 2022. Looking for teams that have enjoyed stellar Ats seasons over the last 10 years.

30 of the 45 teams in the chart above have winning records after three games. This is less than the 80% I prefer, but it's better than no break points. There are 61 teams for 2022 still eligible for our list.

There are still 30 teams that meet the criteria for the BIG MONEY criteria. The remaining shared traits are winning record after three games and winning percentage.

Another 80% of the ATS teams were scoring at least 28.5 PPG after their first four games. Illinois does not qualify for this benchmark.

The defensive benchmark for ATS success is around 20 PPG. Of the 30 teams that are interested in qualifying, 20 of them reached this benchmark.

Only five of the 45 college football teams in 2022 had new head coaches. 24 of them brought back the same coach from last season.

Trait 6: Had at least 11 starters back from the prior year’s team. About 80% of successful teams brought back at at most 11 players.

The most important trait for successful ATS teams is running the same offensive system for the offensive coordinator as the prior season. 32 teams in the last 10 seasons fit this criteria. Applying this qualifier to the list of 30 teams for 2022, we award just 14 checkmarks.

Trait 8: Brought back the same starting quarterback from the previous season. For 2022, 16 of 30 candidate teams earn checkmarks.

Trait 9: Team won fewer than two-thirds of its games in the prior season. 36 of 45 teams had a record of 66.7% winning percentage or worse the previous season, so they weren't elite in that year. For 2022, 22 teams earn check marks, 8 do not.

Penn State and Tennessee are the top candidates for big-money college football teams for 2022.

Penn State is undefeated in the Big Ten East and has a home-field advantage. They play Northwestern this week. They are looking to become a big-money team in 2022.

Tennessee is a team that is going to be a big bettors' choice for the rest of the season. The team is coming out of its bye and plays at LSU on October 8.

There are 10 more teams that meet the criteria in six of the seven traits.

Air Force looked great in blowing out Nevada on Friday night. The team has a good running attack and good quarterback Haaziq Daniels.

Alabama is a potential big-money team for 2022. Sportsbooks might be worried about Alabama being too good last season. Alabama's offense has put up 55, 63 and 55 points in its last three games.

The Florida State Seminoles are a team that has won both of their games. The only game they didn't cover was the 47-7 season-opening win vs. Duquesne.

Maryland has won three games in a row and is 3-1 SU and ATS this season. The Terps almost upset Michigan on Saturday.

Minnesota is the favorite in the Big Ten West. The Gophers are running the football up and down the field. Coach P.J. Fleck's team won and covered its final three games last season.

Oregon State is on a four-game winning streak and has posted outright wins in two games that were virtual toss-ups. The Beavers are also showing great balance offensively and have limited some big-time offenses to 24 PPG.

South Alabama is a potential big-money college football team for 2022. The Sun Belt Conference has already pulled off a lot of great feats in the past. South Alabama was responsible for one near-upset, falling short, 32-31, at UCLA.

Syracuse is 4-0 after a big win over Louisville. They lost to Virginia, but they had 17 starters return for 2022. Syracuse has a seven-game ACC slate to end the season.

Tulane lost to Southern Miss last week, but the team has won more games than last season. The team brought back 18 starters and has a gritty quarterback in Michael Pratt. Tulane is an underdog this week at Houston.

Utah lost the season-opening game at Florida. Since then, the team has gone 3-0 SU and ATS while outscoring opponents 142-27.