US Open Semifinal: Keys vs Sabalenka Prediction
The 2023 US Open has been one for the ages, and there are still four headline singles matches to go. We could have another Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz final in the men’s draw, while the women’s draw could feature an all-American final with Coco Gauff and Madison Keys.
They’ll both need to win their semi-final matches to play in the final of one of the four biggest tennis events of the season.
Keys, a 28-year-old American, has never won a Grand Slam but reached the finals of the US Open in 2017. This marks her fifth Grand Slam semi-final, but she has a tough test ahead in Aryna Sabalenka, who won the Australian Open this year.
Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
- Moneyline: Not surprisingly, Sabalenka is the favorite for the Keys vs Sabalenka prediction. The 25-year-old Belarussian is a -275 favorite, while Keys is a +220 underdog.
- Spread: Sabalenka has a -3.5 (-138) games handicap.
- Over/Under: The total games over/under is 21.5.
- Other Bets: Other tennis odds include Sabalenka to win in three sets (+240), Keys to win in straight sets (+450), and Sabalenka to record the most aces (+125).
Keys vs. Sabalenka Information
Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka
Location of the game: Arthur Ashe Stadium. New York, NY.
Date & Time: Thursday, September 7. 8:15 p.m. ET.
How to Watch: ESPN & Fubo
Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Analysis
Madison Keys Recap and Analysis
Few people would have expected Keys vs Sabalenka prediction as one of the two semi-finals in the 2023 US Open.
It’s no surprise that Sabalenka is in this spot, but Keys has largely flown under the radar, especially with much of the national spotlight going to fellow American Coco Gauff, arguably the favorite now to win the tournament. Keys, however, is playing the best tennis of her career.
She has been especially impressive in her last three matches against higher-ranked opponents. Keys defeated Liudmila Samsonova 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 in the third round and followed that up with a 6-1, 6-3 win over third seed Jessica Pegula in the Round of 16. She beat Marketa Vondrousova 6-1, 6-4 in Wednesday’s quarter-final match.
Key Injuries
Keys isn’t dealing with any injury concerns.
Betting Trends to Know
- While Keys is definitely a surprise semifinalist as far as tennis predictions go, she has been impressive this season with a 33-11 record, including 19-7 on hard courts.
- She is 8-2 in her last ten matches and 1-2 in three career matches against Sabalenka. She lost to Sabalenka earlier this season at Wimbledon and last beat her at the 2021 German Open.
Aryna Sabalenka Performance Recap and Analysis
Sabalenka’s tennis stats have been impressive through her first five matches at the US Open, and with Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina eliminated from contention, it feels as though the tournament is hers to win. She hasn’t dropped a set and has needed just six hours to win five matches.
Sabalenka showed no signs of slowing down, despite the New York heat, in her quarter-final victory over Qinwen Zheng, beating the Chinese player 6-1, 6-4 in just 1 hour and 11 minutes. Her service game was brilliant, winning 88 and 81 percent of points on first and second serve, respectively.
Key Injuries
Sabalenka doesn’t have any injury concerns. Both players are fortunate to have won their matches in quick fashion yesterday with the one-day turnaround.
Betting Trends to Know
- Sabalenka is 2-1 in three career matches against Keys. She’s 49-10 this season, including 8-2 in her last ten matches and 29-5 on hard courts.
Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka Betting Picks
Nobody has won more than three games in a single set against Sabalenka so far in this tournament. An all-American US Open final would be great for ratings, but Sabalenka should spoil those plans.
- Moneyline: Sabalenka -275
- Over/Under: Under 21.5 (-120)
- Spread: Sabalenka -3.5 (-138)
- Keys vs Sabalenka prediction: Sabalenka def. Keys 6-4, 6-3
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