USA vs Netherlands prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Women's World Cup 2023 group-stage match

The Netherlands will seek revenge as they take on the United States in a pivotal Group E match at the 2023 Women's World Cup in Wellington, New Zealand.

Four years ago in Lyon, the United States topped the Dutch 2-0 to win the 2019 final through goals by Megan Rapinoe and Rose Lavelle.

With a rematch on hand, the two sides sit in largely different situations. The Netherlands sport many of the same stars that played in that final four years ago, with the spine of the team mostly intact. Meanwhile, the United States have ushered in a completely new backbone of youth, with most of the team from that trophy-winning squad on its way out.

Yet it's the retooled U.S. that remains alone atop the FIFA rankings, while the Dutch have dropped two spots since then, from seventh to ninth. So, while they seek revenge, the U.S. will continue a push towards an historic three-peat, not haunted by ghosts of the past.

USA vs Netherlands odds

As overall top tournament favorites and ranked No. 1 in the world by FIFA, the United States are understandably going to be favorites in nearly all single matches throughout this tournament unless they are devastated by injuries or put forth a string of poor performances.

They are indeed favorites here, but not nearly to the level we've seen them labeled as of late, owing to the top European talent in this Netherlands squad.

Goals are thought to be at a premium here, as both teams earned shutout victories in their opening matches, and neither unleashed an onslaught of goals up front.

USA vs Netherlands match facts

• Date: Thursday, July 27
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. ET (Wed, July 26) / 2 a.m. BST / 11 a.m. AEST
• Location: Wellington Regional Stadium (Wellington, New Zealand)
• Official: Yoshimi Yamashita (JPN)
• Last meeting: USA 2-2 Netherlands (July 30, 2021 | Olympic quarterfinals)

USA vs Netherlands projected lineups & team news

United States

USA head coach Vlatko Andonovski made two tweaks to his strongest lineup against Vietnam, with Rose Lavelle coming off the bench and Julie Ertz slotted into central defense. Here against the toughest group opponent they'll face, we'll see the strongest possible XI for the United States and the one we're likely to see moving forward through the tournament.

As far as those two players are concerned, Ertz should move into midfield as Alana Cook enters to partner Naomi Girma at the back. Lavelle, meanwhile, played 30 minutes against Vietnam, a very positive sign for her as she returns to full fitness from a knee injury. It remains to be seen whether she'll be fit for a start here, but it's likely she could go at least an hour.

Netherlands

The Dutch deployed a first-choice starting lineup against Portugal in their group-stage opener, but seeing as they have one less day to recover than their opponents, a few changes could be necessitated.

The Netherlands are loaded in central defense, meaning head coach Andries Jonker could elect to bring on Aniek Nouwen if he wishes to give one of his regulars a rest, or sees a tactical tweak to make. Exciting up-and-coming 19-year-old Esmee Brugts started at wing-back against Portugal, but it's possible that Jonker could turn to a more experienced player like full-back Kerstin Casparij for that spot, giving them a bit more defensive solidity against such a strong USA forward group.

Up front, Katja Snoeijs could enter if needed, but it's more likely that the established strike duo of Lieke Martens and Lineth Beerensteyn stay put. They are notably without Vivianne Miedema who tore her ACL in April.

USA vs Netherlands key stats

• This match is first time that the two finalists from the previous Women's World Cup have been drawn together in the next tournament's group stage.
• With over 215 international appearances, Dutch defensive midfielder Sherida Spitse is the fourth-most capped player in this Women's World Cup field behind Christine Sinclair, Caroline Seger, and Sophie Schmidt.
• At 22 years and 345 days old, Sophia Smith's brace against Vietnam made her the youngest player in U.S. history to score multiple goals on her Women's World Cup debut.

USA vs Netherlands prediction

• Moneyline lean: USA (-141)
• Handicap lean: USA -0.5 (-150)
• Score prediction: USA 2-0 Netherlands

While the U.S. could have done better against Vietnam in their opener, they did the business in relatively comfortable fashion. The same cannot be said for the Netherlands, who did little to inspire confidence in their narrow 1-0 victory over Portugal.

Protecting an early set-piece goal, the Dutch struggled to break down a Portugal side happy to sit back and absorb pressure, looking to hit back on the break. While the Netherlands were never truly threatened by the Portuguese counter, they also struggled to break the bunkered opposition down.

Obviously they will face a different kind of defensive setup against the U.S. but against some of the best defenders in the world, there's little to suggest they can find a way through.

USA vs Netherlands: best bet

• Pick: USA to win to nil
• Odds: +150 (BetMGM)

All in all, the Dutch forward unit was extremely poor against Portugal — a worrying sign for them as they hope to back up their runner-up finish from four years ago with another positive showing Down Under. Without Miedema, they look to be missing a cutting edge up front.

While the Dutch out-passed Portugal 321-219, they lagged in ball progressions with just 15, and they created just four defensive line breaks. When they did get into shooting positions, they put all five of their shots on target into central positions on frame, with the early header the only one finding a way through.

The Dutch also only attempted four crosses the whole match against Portugal, meaning they sport a one-dimensional attack, and if they can't unlock the U.S. defense with through-balls or dribbles, it will be hard to find a goal with such lack of width and pace.

USA vs Netherlands prop bet

• Pick: Rose Lavelle score or assist
• Odds: +125 (FanDuel)

Rose Lavelle is an essential part of this U.S. squad, end of story. Her health is paramount to a potential third straight Women's World Cup title.

In the final stages of fitness build-up after a knee injury, her 29 minutes against Vietnam were enormously promising, and a return in this match is likely. Andonovski could look to remain safe with her health and sit her again, so wait until lineups are released for this play, but with six days to rest, she should be back against their strongest opponent in Group E.

Lavelle looked no worse for wear in her half-hour cameo on Friday, completing both her dribbles, winning two of three ground duels, and generating three shot-creating actions. If she can stretch that across 60 or even 90 minutes of play, she will have a great impact in the final third and play a big role in this game.