USA vs New Zealand Predictions & Odds

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24 August 2023

Jalen Brunson may not be the most talented player on this American roster, but head coach Steve Kerr has entrusted the Knicks point guard as the team's leader for the FIBA World Cup. Read more as we break down their upcoming matchup against New Zealand.

The 2023 FIBA World Cup is officially in full swing, and all eyes now turn to the perennial favorites as the USA begins their quest for gold in a tilt against New Zealand on Saturday.

The USA romped through their friendlies in the lead-up to the World Cup, while the Kiwi squad had their sights aimed high after claiming bronze at the FIBA Asia Cup.

FIBA World Cup odds for Saturday’s contest heavily tilt toward the American side, but we're zeroing in on team leader Jalen Brunson in our FIBA picks and predictions for USA vs. New Zealand.

USA vs New Zealand odds

USA vs New Zealand picks and predictions

Just like NBA teams, FIBA squads tend to take after their leaders. This is why you can understand why it was barely halfway through the first week of USA basketball training camp when head coach Steve Kerr announced that Jalen Brunson would be the starting point guard and de facto captain of this USA squad.

While Brunson is hardly the best player or most talented of this bunch, he is an incredibly skilled, even-keeled, and team-first athlete.

And perhaps just as importantly? He had to learn how to shine at the NBA level while sacrificing his own numbers next to a transcendent talent in Luka Doncic.

For a USA team filled with guys who have had little to no experience making that same sacrifice, Kerr could hardly have picked a better model. And it’s been apparent in the way that the American team has played in the exhibition games.

While the USA is infamous for sleepwalking through non-tournament play at times, this American team handled their business in every game prior to the tournament. They play hard and they play together, and it all starts with Brunson.

How Brunson beats opponents at the NBA level is a combination of incredible strength and coordination. He’s built like a fire hydrant and uses his chest to bump off bigger, longer opponents to create space. He’s also a master of footwork, using endless pivots and stepthroughs to create angles for a good shot.

NBA guards, and hell —even some wings — can’t contain Brunson. So the poor Kiwi guards who are not nearly as athletically gifted are going to tear like tissue paper when he goes at them.

Brunson is coming off a pair of lower-scoring games against Germany and Greece, which is why this line is available at this price. JB is a big game player, and with the tournament beginning in earnest, there is little chance of a repeat performance. In the friendlies against defending world champions Spain, the New York Knicks star point guard was a perfect 10-10 from the field for 23 points.

Now that the games are going to count, Brunson is going to prove to everyone exactly why Kerr had so much immediate faith in him.

My best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 13.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

USA vs New Zealand same-game parlay

Jalen Brunson 12+ points (-185)

USA -36.5 (-110)

Anthony Edwards 20+ points (-135)

We’re taking Brunson to record 12+ points and combining that with a cover by the American side and a leading-man-level performance from Anthony Edwards.

While the spread is vast, there are two reasons (outside of the obvious) that we can expect the USA to have a good shot at covering it. One is that the point differential matters in FIBA play, so the Americans are going to play to win every possession.

Furthermore, don’t think for a second that the USA players didn’t take notice of Canada’s blowout win over France on Friday. One statement win deserves another, and the Americans will be keen to remind everyone that they’re still the top dog.

As for Edwards, he’s been the breakout star of the USA team during the friendlies and was my second choice for a best bet for Saturday’s action. He’s clearly their number one option as a closer, and his skill level just keeps skyrocketing.

The athletic gap between him and most of the people attempting to defend him in this tournament is getting unfair. I fully expect a star showing against New Zealand on Saturday.

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USA vs New Zealand spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Saturday’s game is almost comical, with the USA currently listed as 36.5-point favorites.

While this USA team is not on par with some of the American Olympic teams of old, they have star talent at every position and two of the best dirty-work players in the NBA in Josh Hart and Bobby Portis. This is a team that is not going to lose their edge or take any win for granted, and that makes them incredibly dangerous to bet against.

As mentioned, the name of the game in FIBA group play is point differential. In other words, it matters not just to win, but by how much. Teams will play to the horn, and that means the potential for an all-time offensive performance by the USA is always on the table.

The New Zealand team, lovingly nicknamed the “Tall Blacks”, is the 26th-ranked team in the world and are coming off a successful qualifying stage. New Zealand finished third in the 2022 FIBA Asia Cup, and in their last tune-up game before the World Cup, they played a quality game against a well-coached Italian squad.

Still, it would be a shock if this game was competitive for more than a quarter. The USA is deeper and better at every position and has shown a real killer instinct.

The total for Saturday’s game is hovering between 185.5 and 186.5, depending on the sportsbook. Whether that seems like a reasonable number or not is entirely down to how you feel about the offensive firepower on this USA squad.

The USA went 5-0 in their showcase games, with an average margin of victory of 20.6 points. For what it’s worth, the totals in the five USA exhibition games were 191, 154, 186, 194, and 190. In most cases, that was a result of the USA running up the score, and the one outlier number at 154 came against a Luka-less Slovenia that the Americans shut down completely on the defensive end.

It’s certainly possible that happens again here, as open shots are going to be tough to come by for the Kiwi side.