USC vs. Notre Dame Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 7

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12 October 2023

USC vs. Notre Dame Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 7

The marquee game of college football's Week 7 has the 5-2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish as home favorites against the undefeated USC Trojans, and our top USC vs. Notre Dame prediction based on the college football odds from our best sports betting apps is the perfect complement to the matchup.

The USC Trojans held on for a triple-overtime win against the Arizona Wildcats last week, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly noted the Trojans had the second-lowest postgame win expectancy (41%) in a victory in Week 6.

USC boasts an undefeated 6-0 record and will look to strengthen its CFP National Championship resume against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday. Notre Dame suffered its second loss of the season last week and is no longer in the championship discussion.

Louisville defeated Notre Dame with a score of 33-20 last week, marking the first time in school history that it beat AP top 10 opponents in consecutive seasons. The loss snapped Notre Dame’s 30-game ACC regular-season winning streak, and it had covered in 10 consecutive such games before the loss.

Our best USC vs. Notre Dame prediction pairs perfectly with our USC vs. Notre Dame player props (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USC vs. Notre Dame prediction: Week 7

Notre Dame is playing its fourth consecutive ranked opponent in Week 7, and for it to come out victorious, its offense will have to playbetter than the previous three weeks.

Over the last three games, the Fighting Irish have averaged 18.3points per game, which would rank 114th in FBS if extrapolated over an entireseason. Part of the issue is that quarterback Sam Hartman has faced 38pressures in the last two weeks, the most of any FBS quarterback. While that isan issue when facing a Trojans defense that ranks third in the FBS in totalquarterback pressures, the Fighting Irish should be able to protect him betterin this home game when the offensive line can communicate better, just as itdid when the unit allowed zero sacks against Ohio State three weeks ago.

While the Fighting Irish offense has looked stagnant recently,it is certainly capable of big plays, as Notre Dame entered last week with 40plays of 20 or more yards, which was tied for third in FBS. The Fighting Irishwere just 3-for-13 on third down against Louisville, but they still managed 20points despite those inefficiencies and turning the ball over five times.Before the Louisville game, Hartman had faced 14 ranked opponents and produceda 22-13 touchdown-interception ratio and a 127.0 efficiency rating despitecompleting just 55.3% of his passes. Thus, the offensive ceiling is still high.

Notre Dame’s defense will get a challenge unlike any it hasfaced before when lining up against the No. 1 offense in FBS per SP+ rankings.The Fighting Irish had difficulty containing the big-play ability of Cardinalsrunning back Jawhar Jordan, who rushed for a season-high 143 yards and scoredtouchdowns of 21-plus yards on consecutive drives. Notre Dame’s defense lookedgassed in its third straight game against a ranked opponent and now must find away to slow down defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.

While the Fighting Irish rank third in passing yards per gameallowed (146.6) and have allowed just 22 plays of 22-plus yards, they only facedone offense ranked in the Top 35 of SP+ this season.

USC’s ability to spread the field and get the ball out in spacewill put an emphasis on tackling, and Notre Dame’s defense ranks 82nd intackling efficiency, per PFF College. USC’s defense is even worse at 110th inthat metric, so if the Fighting Irish can keep the Trojans out of thebackfield, they should have plenty of opportunities for explosive plays (USChas the Pac-12’s fourth-worst defense in terms of PPA).

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USC vs. Notre Dame best odds

Caesarsis our go-to shop as Over backers, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites with a total as low as 61.

BetRivers is as high as 62, suggestingthat the number at Caesars has room to come up. However, we would not putanyone off waiting to see what the forecast in South Bend will look like overthe next several days, as the total will likely come down some if the chancefor precipitation increases.

USC vs. Notre Dame odds

Thistotal at the best sportsbooks is down significantly from the lookahead line of 66.5 from the summer,likely because Notre Dame’s offense has underperformed recently. At FanDuel,the total rose two points to 63.5 before Under backers weighed in and returnedthe line to its original number. There is dead-even 50/50 action on either sideof the total to this point. The Under has cashed in three of the previous fourmeetings between these teams.

BetRiversis the only shop offering a spread of Notre Dame -2, while all others have theFighting Irish as 2.5-point favorites. Notre Dame dropped as low as -1.5 atFanDuel on Sunday morning, then was bet as high as -3 later in the day beforesettling back in at -2.5. The Fighting Irish have received the slight majorityof the point spread wagers (56%).

NotreDame is 4-2-1 ATS this year, while USC has covered in just two of six games.