Using History to Handicap the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

The $2 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff is shaping up to be among the most competitive and exciting races of the Nov. 6-7 Breeder”s Cup World Championships at Keeneland. The expected field for the 1 1/8-mile event is stacked with elite fillies and mares.

Bill Mott has won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff five times with four different horses. He won it with Ajina in 1997 and Escena in 1998. He returned to the winner”s circle with Unrivaled Belle in 2010 and Royal Delta in 2011-‘12.

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff has been dominated by favorites and short-priced contenders. Favorites have gone 15-for-36 (42%) in the Dist Aff and 26 of the 36 winners (72%) went off at less than 5-1.

To win the Distaff, you need a horse ready to peak on the day of the championship. Six of last 11 Distaf winners were beaten in their final prep run.

Established Grade 1 winners have accounted for 13 of the last 14 editions of Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Unrivaled Belle had placed second three times at the Grade one level.

Don't overlook the 3-year-olds in the Distaff. They have won 11 of the 36 editions of this race.

Seven of the last 10 Distaff winners have won the race at Saratoga during the summer of their Breeders’ Cup-winning season. The Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes has been a productive prep race for the Distaf winners.

Monomoy Girl won the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She is a short price in the betting. Swiss Skydiver is fresh off a victory in Preakness Stakes. Horologist is an improving 4-year-old. He won two Grade 1 races and is conditioned by Bill Mott. The winner of the Dist Aff will be announced on the day of BreedERS' Cup.