VCU vs. Saint Mary's Predictions, Odds & Picks: Gaels on March Madness Upset Alert

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15 March 2023

VCU vs. Saint Mary's Predictions, Odds & Picks: Gaels on March Madness Upset Alert

The VCU Rams will look to extend their nine-game winning streak against the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Here is our best VCU vs. Saint Mary's prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

The Rams have won nine games in a row, and they are 17-2 in their last 19 games this season. Just one of their last eight wins was by single digits. They do have some questionable losses on their resume, such as defeats at the hands of the Duquesne Dukes and Jacksonville Dolphins, but they also beat the Pittsburgh Panthers and Vanderbilt Commodores.

The Gaels’ metrics all look very good. They’re 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They beat the Gonzaga Bulldogs earlier this season, and they also have a win over the San Diego State Aztecs. They are 5-2 in their last seven games, with both of their losses coming to Gonzaga.

Here is our best VCU vs. Saint Mary's prediction (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

VCU vs. Saint Mary's odds

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If you’re feeling ambitious, you could take the Rams' moneyline, as there is a very real chance that they win this game, as detailed in our March Madness upset predictions. The Gaels are phenomenal defensively, but when they are cold offensively, they have a hard time putting teams away. This has led to losses against far inferior opponents throughout the season.

We recommend sticking with the spread because it is still sizable. Even though the moneyline of +160 may be enticing, you are going to be very happy you took the spread if this ends up being a one or two-point game at the end. Based on how these two teams play, no matter who wins, it’s going to be a nail-biter down the stretch.

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The Rams' last two losses this season were by margins of three and four points. Though the Gaels are 5-2 in their last seven games, they do have some narrow escapes, such as a three-point win over the San Diego Toreros and a seven-point win over the BYU Cougars.

Based on how each of these two teams has been playing of late, the Rams are going to hang around on Friday, and the Gaels aren’t going to have the offensive firepower to put them away. Their defense may ultimately get them the win, but the Gaels are in serious trouble with this matchup.

VCU vs. Saint Mary's best odds

Caesars (-110)

March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.

Each of the five sportsbooks has a different spread and price combination for this game. FanDuel and BetMGM are offering a spread of +4.5 with inflated juice, so there is very little value in wagering at either of them. PointsBet has this number at +4, but the odds are more expensive than at DraftKings.

Therefore, it comes down to either DraftKings or Caesars. While DraftKings is enticing with reduced vig, we’re recommending taking the extra half-point for the more expensive price. It is very reasonable for the Rams to lose this game by exactly four points, so it is worth eliminating the chance of a push.

VCU vs. Saint Mary's odds analysis

The Gaels opened as 3.5-point favorites, and despite 62% of bettors backing the Rams, the spread has moved in favor of Saint Mary’s. At one point, this line was as large as 5, but it has slowly started to retreat to its opening number. With the total set so low, this spread should not go off at greater than two baskets.

The total for this game opened at an incredibly low 122.5. It’s not surprising to see bettors backing the Over, but it is surprising they aren’t backing it by more. With a number so low, you’d think at least 60% of bettors would be supporting the Over, but instead, just 57% are. The number has gone up slightly at some of our best sportsbooks.