Can Gaels Grind Out March Madness Cover vs. Huskies?

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19 March 2023

Can Gaels Grind Out March Madness Cover vs. Huskies?

Saint Mary's and UConn meet on Sunday in a March Madness contest for one of the final Sweet 16 berths. Read on for our Saint Mary's vs. UConn prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

Those who expected UConn to fold against Iona as Rick Pitino outcoached Dan Hurley were sorely mistaken as one of KenPom’s top teams handled its business with ease in the opening round. Now the Huskies will face their second consecutive matchup against a team known as the Gaels as they take on Saint Mary’s in the Round of 32.

The KenPom rankings would consider Sunday’s matchup between 5-seed Saint Mary’s (27-7) and 4-seed UConn (26-8) as a game that should be played in the Sweet 16, instead of the Round of 32. But as a quirk of the seeding, two of the teams most beloved by the metrics are facing off on the first weekend of March Madness

With the point spread providing some leeway, can Saint Mary’s elite defense grind out a cover against the dynamic Huskies?

Here is our best Saint Mary's vs. UConn prediction (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saint Mary's vs. UConn odds

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Saint Mary’s handled an outmatched VCU side in its opening-round win to get here as the Gaels’ eighth-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency shined against a Rams offense that ranked as one of the least explosive units in the tournament field. Although UConn's fourth-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency would figure to present a brand-new challenge for the Gaels, Saint Mary’s is equipped to grind out a cover in this matchup.

The Gaels have experience against elite offenses, claiming one of their three 2022-23 matchups with Gonzaga, the top-ranked offense in the country this season. Limiting VCU to 51 points is indicative of the Gaels playing their best defensively at the right time. Another feather in the cap of Saint Mary's is its ability to slow the pace to limit scoring chances for the opposition.

Saint Mary’s checks in with the 359th-ranked adjusted tempo in college basketball. Against teams like Gonzaga that work to speed you up (44th in adjusted tempo), that can occasionally result in mismatches on days where Saint Mary’s No. 42 adjusted offensive falls flat. But UConn ranks outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo and could have trouble playing with enough pace to blow out the Gaels on Sunday.

Saint Mary's vs. UConn best odds

DraftKings: +3.5 (-110)

The betting board doesn’t feature many opportunities to find an edge on the Saint Mary’s point spread as all of our best sportsbooks feature the Gaels at +3.5 with standard -110 odds.

Saint Mary’s style of play is conducive to lower-scoring games featuring limited possessions, so every half-point matters when it comes to betting the Gaels on the spread. With the line currently greater than one possession by the hook, we like Saint Mary’s as a four-star play. The recommendation would reduce to three stars at +2.5.

Saint Mary's vs. UConn odds analysis

Uconn opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has remained there across our recommended sports betting sites. An overwhelming 71% of point-spread wagers have been placed on the Huskies as of Sunday morning.

The total opened at 129.5. It has remained at that number at several shops while dropping to between 128 and 128.5 at others. The Under is backed by 54% of the betting action.