Vikings vs. Broncos Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11: Sunday Night Football

sportsbookreview.com

19 November 2023

Denver hosts Minnesota for an exciting Sunday Night Football tilt, and our top Vikings vs. Broncos prediction is based on the best NFL odds.

The Minnesota Vikings lost starting quarterback Kirk Cousins for the season and will once again be without superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson in Week 11, but that doesn't seem to matter.

Recently acquired Joshua Dobbs is quickly becoming somewhat of a legend in Minnesota, and the Vikings ride into Sunday Night Football on a league-best five-game winning streak.

Minnesota entered the week trailing the Detroit Lions by just 1.5 games in the NFC North, and a team that was once believed to be in contention for a top draft pick is suddenly a playoff threat.

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos (4-5) have also bounced back this season, as they have three straight wins. Two of those victories came against Super Bowl odds contenders in the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills the past two weeks.

Vikings vs. Broncos NFL player props or Vikings vs. Broncos parlay (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Vikings vs. Broncos prediction: Sunday Night Football

Broncos -2 (-110 via BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

What Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs has done during his short time since being traded to Minnesota is remarkable. Dobbs became the first player with 400-plus passing yards, 100-plus rushing yards, and zero interceptions over his first two games with a team, one of which came just days after he was given the playbook.

Additionally, Dobbs is also the fourth player in Vikings history with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown in consecutive games. However, while he's produced an eye-popping 88 total QBR over two games in Minnesota, Dobbs is now heading into a matchup against a defense that completely stifled two of the NFL's best quarterbacks in consecutive outings.

Denver held Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to a combined 60.9% completion percentage, an average of 210.5 passing yards, a 1-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and 31 total points. The Broncos’ defensive resurgence is impressive after they allowed 40.7 points per game over their first three contests while giving up 7.2 yards per play with an efficiency rating of 13, all according to ESPN Analytics.

In the five games since then, Denver has allowed 20.8 points per game, 5.8 yards per play, and recorded an efficiency rating of 52. The Broncos have allowed a touchdown on just six of 42 drives (14.3%) since Week 6, the fourth-lowest touchdown rate allowed in the NFL during that span, according to PFF.

This is a three-star play, as Denver’s defense ranks in the top eight in EPA/play since Week 6, in addition to EPA per dropback and red-zone touchdown rate. And with the cold weather and high chance of precipitation in Denver on Monday night, we prefer to back the team that's more accustomed to those elements instead of one that plays its home games indoors.

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Vikings vs. Broncos best odds

BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 (-110)

While FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a spread of -2.5, that shop is giving Broncos backers something to think about, as it's posting a -105 price at a half-point higher spread.

That will be viewed as more enticing than laying -110 odds with a spread of -2. However, given how frequently Minnesota finds itself in one-possession games (nine of 10 in 2023, and 12 total in 2022), we'll take every point we can get while opposing the Vikings.

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Vikings vs. Broncos odds for Sunday Night Football

All initial line movement on the point spread went in Denver’s favor, as most of our best sportsbooks opened with the Broncos -1 or -1.5. Caesars was the only shop to post -3 briefly, but all others have stayed with a ceiling of -2.5, with most fluctuating between -2 and -2.5. The point spread for this game is getting lopsided action, as 75% of the early wagers are backing Denver. Minnesota is riding a four-game road cover streak.

Caesars and bet365 are the only two of our best sports betting sites offering a total of 43, while all other books are at 43.5. The totals at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 all dipped to 42.5 at some point this week, but that seems to be the floor. Bettors drove that number up across all of our best live betting sites whenever it reached that low. Early wagers are split, with the Over getting 58% of the support.