Wales vs Australia Prediction, Odds & Picks
It’s make-or-break day for Australia and their chances to avoid historic Rugby World Cup humiliation. A win over Wales in their matchup in Lyon (3:00 pm ET, Peacock) is a must, or the Wallabies will miss out on the quarterfinals of the tournament for the first time.
Following their 22-15 loss to Fiji last Sunday, Australia have no wiggle room in Pool C with only today’s match and next Sunday’s pool finale against Portugal to come.
2023 Rugby World Cup Pool C Standings
- Wales – 10 points (defeated Fiji and Portugal)
- Fiji – 6 (lost to Wales, defeated Australia)
- Australia – 6 (defeated Georgia, lost to Fiji)
- Georgia – 2 (lost to Australia, tied Portugal)
- Portugal – 2 (lost to Wales, tied Georgia)
If Wales win, they will all but lock up top spot in Pool C, unless they meet unexpected trouble against Georgia in Nantes on October 7.
In the process, Australia would be staring at elimination from the 2023 Rugby World Cup, with Fiji’s final two pool matches against Georgia and Portugal.
A loss to the Wallabies wouldn’t necessarily be a mortal blow for Wales, as their win over Fiji would see them advance on a head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams can finish on equal points.
But it would put them in a very perilous position, unless they were able to come away from this match with at least one of two bonus points.
Wales vs Australia Odds
Odds are via Bovada.
Spread
- Wales +0.5 (-115)
- Australia -0.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Wales -109
- Australia +105
- Draw +2300
Over/Under
- Over 45.5 (-110)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
Will Wales and Australia Have Another Close Contest?
While Wales were able to escape with a 32-26 win against Fiji after Semi Radradra’s late knock-on, Australia weren’t as fortunate.
The Wallabies led 3-0 and 8-6 in the first half, but Fiji scored 16 straight points to take full control of the match. Australia did manage to come away with a losing bonus point thanks to a late converted try and a penalty miss by Fiji at the end. But it was not a performance to be proud of for the Aussies.
There haven’t been too many such performances for a while for the Wallabies. They have now won just one of their seven matches in 2023 and have three wins and a dozen losses in their last 15 games.
Last Fifteen Matches for Australia
- 22-15 L to Fiji (2023 Rugby World Cup)
- 35-15 W vs Georgia (2023 Rugby World Cup)
- 41-17 L vs France (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
- 23-20 L vs New Zealand (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
- 38-7 L vs New Zealand (2023 Rugby Championship)
- 34-31 L vs Argentina (2023 Rugby Championship)
- 43-12 L vs South Africa (2023 Rugby Championship)
- 39-34 W vs Wales (2022 Autumn Nations Series)
- 13-10 L vs Ireland (2022 Autumn Nations Series)
- 28-27 L vs Italy (2022 Autumn Nations Series)
- 30-29 L vs France (2022 Autumn Nations Series)
- 16-15 W vs Scotland (2022 Autumn Nations Series)
- 40-14 L vs New Zealand (2022 Rugby Championship)
- 39-37 L vs New Zealand (2022 Rugby Championship)
- 24-8 L vs South Africa (2022 Rugby Championship)
One of those three wins was a thrilling 39-34 win over Wales in their final 2022 Autumn Nations Series match last November.
In that match, Wales led 34-13 with less than 30 minutes remaining, but Australia scored the final 26 points, including the go-ahead try in the waning moments.
Similar will and resolve will be needed to secure a desperately needed win.
Australia made the last eight of all nine previous editions of the Rugby World Cup, with six appearances in the semis and four trips to the final. No matter how badly they have fared recently, it would still be a major failure to be unable to keep that run going.
Australia are also looking to improve upon an impressive all-time record against Wales.
The Wallabies are 31-13-1 all time against Wales, though the latter had won three in a row before last year’s epic in Cardiff. Seven of their previous meetings were in World Cup play, with Australia holding a 5-2 edge in those matches.
Wales vs Australia Recent Head-to-Head Results
- 39-34 Australia (November 26, 2022 – Cardiff)
- 29-28 Wales (November 20, 2021 – Cardiff)
- 29-25 Wales (September 29, 2019 – Tokyo)
- 9-6 Wales (November 10, 2018 – Cardiff)
- 29-21 Australia (November 11, 2017 – Cardiff)
Overall, nine of the last twelve meetings between Wales and Australia have been decided by five or fewer points. Are we in for another close encounter today?
Wales vs Australia Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Wales to win
Picks: Wales ML (-109 at Bovada) & Wales team total over 22.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
Wales nearly capitulated against Fiji and beat Portugal by only 20 points, so they haven’t exactly been outstanding themselves. But they inspire a lot more confidence at the moment than the Wallabies do.
Despite their recent results, I don’t discount Australia’s potential to step up like when they last faced Wales. Sometimes adversity can bring out a team’s best.
However, based on what they have shown thus far in the Rugby World Cup and in the many months prior, it’s hard to see that happening.
Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup
While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.
In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:
If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.
