Warriors vs. Bucks NBA Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions for Saturday
Saturday's matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks doesn't quite live up to the intrigue of previous meetings between these two recent title winners, and our Warriors vs. Bucks NBA player props based on the best NBA odds
In just about any other year, Saturday's showdown between the Golden State Warriors (18-20) and Milwaukee Bucks (26-12) would be must-see TV as a potential title preview between NBA Finals odds contenders. Instead, oddsmakers have priced the Bucks as sizable favorites in a clear mismatch on paper.
Milwaukee blew out the Boston Celtics on Thursday, halting a 1-4 run to open the new year and closing the gap for the No. 1 seed in the East. The Warriors won their last game, too, in a high-scoring affair against the Chicago Bulls that underscored this team's defensive woes.
Here are our best Warriors vs. Bucks NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via ourbest NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Warriors vs. Bucks NBA player props
Stephen Curry Under 6.5 assists (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a curious number for Curry, who has finished with seven or more assists just seven times in 36 starts this season. That's a 19.4% hit rate at this number, yet we're catching an implied price of 54.6% that he goes Under it again on Saturday.
Curry posted nine assists in Friday's win over the Bulls, his most since finishing with 11 dimes in a Dec. 2 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. In the six weeks between those two games, he averaged a mere 4.7 assists and cleared this number just three times across 17 starts (17.6%).
This Bucks defense has regressed in the first year under Adrian Griffin, ranking 19th in defensive rating (116.0) and 24th in opponent points per game (119.4). Yet Milwaukee still ranks 16th in opponent assists per game (26.6) thanks to an aggressive approach on the perimeter that attempts to pressure ball-handlers and cut off easy passing lanes.
That could spell more driving opportunities for Curry, but I'd expect him to find more daylight as a scorer than a distributor on Saturday. The market seems to agree, as the Under is dealing anywhere from -130 to -145 across the rest of our best sports betting sites.
The clear outlier is at DraftKings, where the Under is trading at reasonable -120 odds. I'll gladly pay a little extra at that price on an inflated total for Curry.
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Khris Middleton Under 16.5 points (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
At some point, every elite scorer in the NBA reaches a stage when the buckets aren't falling quite like they used to. We've reached that place with Middleton, and the results aren't pretty for the longtime Bucks star.
Entering Saturday, the 32-year-old wing is scoring at his worst clip (14.4 PPG) since 2014-15, and his usage rate (24.1%) is the lowest since 2016-17. While his shooting percentages are slightly higher on lower volume, you can see his decline in his free-throw percentage (83.6%), which is the lowest of his career.
He's coming off a season-worst five-point effort on Thursday, which is worse than it seems given that he played just 20 minutes in a blowout win. Yet he also shot 2-for-9 from the field - his worst shooting display of the season - and he finished without a free-throw attempt for the second time in a week and the 12th time this season.
All of that is to say: I'm fading Middleton as a scorer until further notice, especially at a number that he's cleared once in his last four games and just 12 times overall in 33 starts this season. With Giannis Antetokounmpo surging and Damian Lillard shaking off his recent slump, I don't see Middleton flourishing as a scorer on Saturday.
Andrew Wiggins Under 1.5 threes (-145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
We're going with three Unders for Saturday's contest, and this one comes with the steepest price. I still feel it's worth betting at these odds given what we've seen from Wiggins as of late and what he'll face in this matchup.
Wiggins' effort has been panned this season, which is easily his worst across the board since joining the Warriors in 2020. He's been especially abysmal from deep, shooting a career-worst 29.4% from three while making 0.9 triples per game - his fewest since his sophomore season in 2015-16.
Coach Steve Kerr inserted Wiggins back into the starting lineup on Friday, and the 6-7 forward responded with one of his best games of the season (17 points, eight assists). But he still made just one of his five 3-point attempts, marking his eighth consecutive game with one made triple or fewer.
Wiggins has made multiple threes in just seven of 34 games (20.6%), and he faces a Bucks defense that ranks second in opponent 3-point percentage (33.5%) entering Saturday. That can be a noisy stat in general, but in this case, it makes sense given that Griffin's scheme is predicated on pressure along the perimeter.
Even if Wiggins draws another start in this one, he found nearly all of his success on Thursday by driving to the hoop and making plays for his teammates. I'd be surprised if he risks another opportunity by suddenly getting trigger-happy from deep.
Warriors-Bucks NBA player props made Saturday at 1:45 p.m. ET.
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