Warriors vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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13 January 2024

Warriors vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Damian Lillard's 3-point shooting had been on the decline, and with the interior edge the Bucks can hold over the Warriors tonight, our NBA picks don't think this is the game for him to bounce back.

After back-to-back blowout losses at home, Steve Kerr said that the Golden State Warriors had lost their belief, competitive spirit, and confidence. Winning cures all however, and a strong road win against the Chicago Bulls last night had them looking decidedly full of self-belief. The NBA odds, however, disagree, tabbing the Dubs as heavy underdogs tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a get-right win of their own, having demolished the Boston Celtics in the first half of the TNT double-header on Thursday so badly that they sat their starters for the entirety of the second half.

Both teams will be looking to build on their newfound success as Golden State heads to Fiserv Forum on Saturday, January 13.

My NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Bucks look to take advantage of Damian Lillard’s shooting slump.

Warriors vs Bucks odds

Warriors vs Bucks predictions

Beating the brakes off the Boston Celtics has done wonders to take the pressure off the Milwaukee Bucks, but despite their 26-12 record, all is not well in the Cream City. Most of the concern in the media and among fans has centered on their porous defense, but to my eyes, the more concerning thing is their offense. Because, while the Bucks have the tools for an elite offense, it’s still not nearly as good as it should be.

That’s in part because the Bucks, so far, are getting by on the idea of Damian Lillard more than Lillard himself. While he won them a series of clutch games to open the season, he’s mostly been a distant second fiddle to Giannis Antetokounmpo as the Bucks climb the offensive rankings week after week.

Lillard is scoring fewer points, less efficiently, and just generally having a much lower impact on the game than might have been expected. In particular, he’s struggling with his 3-point shot, the foundational skill that makes him a superstar.

Dame is shooting just 35.2% from deep this season on nearly three fewer attempts than his last year in Portland. He’s slumping much worse than that lately as well.

Over his last five games, Lillard is shooting 20.5% from downtown. Perhaps more importantly, he’s averaging fewer than eight attempts per game. For him to hit this prop, he has to both exceed his average attempts as well as more than double his efficiency through January to date.

And this is a game that the Bucks will be aiming to win with size. Not to say that Dame’s efforts will go to waste, far from it, but it’s going be the threat of his shooting more than the shooting itself that is critical to Milwaukee’s game plan.

Giannis is simply too big, too skilled, and too quick for anyone on the Golden State Warriors to reasonably guard. Even Draymond Green struggles with Giannis’ size at times, and asking the likes of Dario Saric, Andrew Wiggins, or Kevon Looney to stick with Antetokounmpo simply spells death.

So, shots in the paint will be the path of least resistance, and while it is strange to say, Lillard has been fine to hang out in the passenger role a lot this season.

Some of Dame’s struggles no doubt stem from the natural difficulty of adjusting to playing the Robin role after a career spent as Batman. His strong performances whenever Giannis misses a game seem to validate that he’s having trouble as the No.2 guy. He’s also been very open about the difficulties in his personal life that have sapped some of his joy for the daily grind of the NBA game this season.

Whatever the reason, Dame Time has been an infrequent occurrence this season, making the Under on these Damian Lillard odds my favorite bet for Saturday’s game.

My best bet: Damian Lillard Under 3.5 threes made (-160 at SIA)

Warriors vs Bucks same-game parlay

Damian Lillard Under 3.5 threes made

Steph Curry Over 6.5 assists

Warriors +11

My same-game parlay for Saturday is all about the superstar guard matchup between Lillard and Steph Curry. In addition to my best bet, I’m banking on a strong passing performance from Steph to the tune of Over 6.5 assists to go with a Warriors cover at +11.

Without Draymond Green or Chris Paul, all of the Warriors' playmaking duties fall to Steph. Including last night, in the six games this season that Steph Curry has played without CP3, he’s averaging seven assists per game.

The Chicago Bulls are worse than the Bucks, but they have much stronger perimeter defenders, namely, Alex Caruso. The Bucks will either have Malik Beasley, Cameron Payne, or Andre Jackson Jr. guarding Curry. That the rookie, Jackson Jr., is easily the best option among those three is damning with faint praise.

Defending Curry takes practice, great team communication, and accumulated experience. The Bucks simply don’t have any of that. The only advantage they have is rest, which, as we saw against the Celtics, can be critical, but it’s also not necessarily definitive.

Outside of one bad night against the Portland Trail Blazers in mid-December, Steph has also been a strong performer in back-to-backs this season, with averages at or better than his season-long marks in most cases.

The Warriors are coming off a strong come-from-behind win. It was an important and encouraging performance for many reasons, including improved offensive efforts from many of the Warriors' key starters, like Klay Thompson and Wiggins.

While their defense has been wretched over the last two weeks, they’ve quietly been a Top-5 offense. The Bucks' offense has fallen to merely league average in that same stretch with no gains on the defensive end, despite the rest disadvantage I think Golden State keeps this game competitive.

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Warriors vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Warriors at Bucks opened with the home team as -9.5-point favorites, and it’s now available between -10.5 and -11.5 at most sportsbooks.

In theory, this game is all set up for the Bucks just like their previous matchup against Boston. It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Warriors, as well as the third game in four nights. The Bucks haven’t played since they blew the doors off the Celtics on Thursday, and even then, they only played one competitive half because the Celts sat their starters for the final 24 minutes.

But the Bucks are only 3-7 ATS with a rest advantage this season. Their offense could easily push this into blowout territory early, but if it doesn’t, their poor defense will allow the Warriors to stay attached.

In a reversal of last year, this season’s Warriors are much stronger on the road than at home. They’re 10-6 against the spread on the road this season compared to just 8-14 ATS in the Bay. They’re also 4-2 ATS with a rest disadvantage. They have been resilient despite their recent highly public series of defeats.

Given that Golden State’s best offense comes from the perimeter, where the Bucks are weakest, I give them a better chance than this spread to keep this close.

The total for this one has been hovering between 245.5 and 246.5, some of the highest non-Indiana Pacers numbers you’ll see this season.

It’s bizarre to see given how both these teams won titles so recently on the backs of elite defenses, but the Warriors and Bucks have been two of the NBA’s worst on that side of the ball for most of this season.

The Warriors might have a chance to be okay with Green in the lineup, but without him, they are getting routinely run out of the gym because they can’t stop anybody, and without Green’s genius, opposing teams are having much more success targeting Steph on mismatches. It’s no surprise given the two absolute routs they played recently, but they’ve been the NBA’s worst defense over the last two weeks per Cleaning the Glass.

The Bucks haven’t been much better, and their statistical profile would be nearly as bad as Golden State’s had Boston been remotely competitive on Thursday night. That both teams are well suited to attacking each other where it hurts most is how a total gets this high. I’m still a little unsure which version of these teams will show up Saturday night however, which makes me hesitant to play this number.

Oddsmakers have underestimated the efficacy of the Warriors' offense on the second night of back-to-backs (or perhaps equally, the futility of their defense). The Over is 4-2 in the six such games they’ve played this season.