Kings vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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14 January 2024

Kings vs Bucks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

While the Bucks are far from a perfect team, we think they're better than the visiting Kings and should cover the spread as such. Find out why in our NBA betting picks for Sunday, January 14 below.

The Milwaukee Bucks were in a bit of a tailspin, but they just picked up two key wins over the Celtics and the Warriors.

In both games, however, they were playing with a rest advantage. Tonight against the Sacramento Kings, it'll be Milwaukee who's playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Does an aging Bucks squad have enough left in the tank to keep up with Sacramento’s run-and-gun style?

My free NBA picks for Kings vs. Bucks on Sunday, January 14 believe that despite a rest disadvantage, Milwaukee should be strong NBA odds favorites to cover the spread.

Kings vs Bucks odds

Kings vs Bucks predictions

I have been a Milwaukee Bucks skeptic for the most part this season. I loved the Damian Lillard trade in concept, and I still think there are unexplored synergies to be tapped into between him and Giannis Antetokounmpo as an on-court pairing, but I have not been thrilled by the reality.

I think their coaching has failed to leverage their singular talents into something greater as a collective whole, and while they’ve been one of the NBA’s best offenses, they have the potential to be the runaway leader. They’ve also been about as bad on defense as could have been feared.

The idea that Giannis and Brook Lopez guarding the interior would be enough has not come to pass, and they’re still searching high and low for players on their roster to step up as perimeter defenders.

But for all that, I think this Sacramento Kings team is still a tier or two below. The Kings were last year’s best offense in the NBA, but they rank merely 14th this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

For a team that does not have the personnel to cobble together an above-average defense, that is simply put... a disaster. The problems are myriad. After an All-NBA caliber start buoyed by strong perimeter shooting and his usual mix of slashing, De’Aaron Fox has hit a wall.

Kevin Huerter’s season-long slump has seen him relegated to the bench in favor of Chris Duarte, who is just not close to as good as Huerter at his best.

Domantas Sabonis is having another productive season, but Mike Brown has deemphasized the dribble handoff game that made Domas such a devastating offensive hub. His inability to protect the rim is a painful tradeoff to make every night without it.

The Kings are getting nice seasons from Keegan Murray and Malik Monk, but that’s not enough to compete with the NBA’s best teams, or even sometimes just good ones. The Kings' recent point differential looks strong, but their victories have come against awful teams. That they got run out of the gym by the 76ers missing Joel Embiid was downright alarming.

The Bucks are at a rest disadvantage on Sunday, but they weren’t overly taxed against the Warriors last night and they didn’t have to travel.

It’s counterintuitive because they have a lot of older players, but Milwaukee has been remarkably resilient when facing a rest disadvantage this year. The Bucks are a sterling 8-3 against the spread in such situations this season.

However, the biggest reason to be bullish on the Bucks’ chances in this one is of course Giannis. The Kings have nobody who can even pretend to guard him, nor do they have any real rim protection at center.

When the chips are down, the Bucks will be able to reliably go to Antetokounmpo for a bucket, which is why Bucks -4.5 is my best bet on Sunday.

My best bet: Bucks -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kings vs Bucks same-game parlay

Bucks -4.5

Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ points

De'Aaron Fox Under 26.5 points

For my same-game parlay, I’m pairing my best bet with Giannis to score 30+ points and De’Aaron Fox Under 26.5 points.

While Lillard has somewhat struggled by his standards this season, Giannis has made effective use of the spacing his new All-Star teammate provides. Giannis is in the midst of his most efficient shooting season on a per-possession basis ever, per Cleaning the Glass, and the only one remotely in the ballpark is his 2018-19 MVP campaign.

As this is a back-to-back, there’s a good chance Khris Middleton will be on a significant minutes restriction, which will leave more of the offensive responsibilities squarely on Antetokounmpo’s shoulders. The reason I’m going with the smaller alt points prop number is to hedge a bit against the possibility of a blowout.

Fox, meanwhile, is averaging a miserable 18 points per game over his last six outings and hasn’t scored 30 points once in that span. His true shooting in January is 49.9%, and he’s failing to get to the foul line at all.

He has 11 total free throw attempts in his last five games and failed to record a single free throw attempt when the Kings got crushed by the Pelicans last Sunday. While the Bucks’ defense is weak on the outside, Fox just hasn’t looked like himself and this number is not in keeping with his recent performance.

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Kings vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened between 4.5- and 5.5-point favorites for Sunday’s game, and with Milwaukee on a back-to-back, it’s unlikely that shifts much unless there are unexpected additions to their injury report.

These teams have been pretty close in point differential over the last two weeks, but again, the Kings' rating is boosted by wins over the dregs of the NBA, including the Hornets, Pistons, and the injury-ravaged Grizzlies.

Since Fox began slumping, they’re at risk of being blown out by any competent team, let alone one with the level of superstar talent helming Milwaukee.

Sunday’s total has come in between 248.5 and as low as 247.5. To put it mildly, oddsmakers are not giving these defenses much credit.

And with good reason. The Kings have been a Bottom-10 defense all year and the Bucks have been well below average as well. The Bucks are also one of the NBA’s best offenses, and while the Kings haven’t been as strong as their record-setting form of last season, they still can heat up the ball in a hurry.

Something to watch in this one is the foul game. Giannis and Dame are two of the NBA’s best foul drawers, and the Kings often fall prey to teams that can leverage that particular skill. Even if Milwaukee’s shots aren’t falling, that’s a reliable way they can tilt this number toward the Over.