Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Curry and Co. bounce back on the road?

Can the shorthanded Grizzlies stay hot at home? Or will the desperate Warriors turn things around on the road with a victory in Bluff City? Read on for our Warriors-Grizzlies NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Memphis Grizzlies have been no strangers to drama over the last week. Ja Morant was suspended for two games and will be away from the team for at least four more. Brandon Clarke suffered a season-ending injury, and Steven Adams remains out indefinitely.

The Grizz have lost three straight, but they’ll look to get back on track against a Golden State Warriors team that's dropped two consecutively with Steph Curry back in action. Both teams are desperate for a win, but who can bettors trust in this Western Conference showdown?

Here is our best Warriors-Grizzlies NBA pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Warriors vs. Grizzlies pick

Warriors -3.5 (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's no reason to sugarcoat it: Golden State has been bad on the road in 2022. The team is 6-25 straight up as the visitor and 4-10 as the road favorite. Since Curry returned to the lineup following an extended injury layoff, the Dubs have suffered an eight-point loss and a nine-point defeat to the Thunder. 

Despite those stumbles, Golden State is now squarely in the playoff picture after five straight home wins prior to the team's current road trip. The Warriors now need a victory to stay in contention and maintain their No. 5 seed. 

The Grizzlies should be even more desperate for a win. Memphis has fallen behind the Sacramento Kings and into the No. 3 seed after losing three straight, and the Suns are just two games back. 

The Grizz have been stellar at home, and Golden State has been struggling on the road, but we can’t rely on trends only. The Warriors are nearly at full strength, while Memphis is missing its star, a key starter, and a critical reserve.

We’re fully expecting Steph (who went off for 40 points against the Thunder) and Co. to handle their business and deliver a road triumph. The line is just 2.5 at all of our featured books, but we can sell one measly point to bring our odds from -105 or -110 to a juicy +120.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies best odds

DraftKings (+120)

DraftKings and PointsBet offer this one at the standard odds, but there’s no reason not to sell the single point and bet this one up to -3.5 at DraftKings.

I’m comfortable with this play up to -4.5, and those odds are +140 at DraftKings and +120 through PointsBet. For bettors not willing to take the plunge on the additional point(s), all of our other featured books offer the -2.5 wager at standard -110 odds.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds

Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds analysis

The line opened at Grizzlies +1.5, but it's been shifting in favor of the visiting team. Golden State has been atrocious on the road both straight up and against the spread. Memphis is a perfect 2-0 ATS as the home dog and 19-11-1 at home overall. Despite Memphis’ strong play at FedEx Forum, 59% of the wagers are on the Warriors to cover.

The total opened at 235.5, and you can get it for half a point in either direction, depending on your book of choice. It’s a rather lofty total, considering the Warriors are 1-7 across their last eight, and the Grizzlies are 2-6.

These teams hit the Over in both prior matchups this season. But it will be much more difficult for Memphis to score with Morant out. Golden State can win this one with sound defense, and bettors have laid 52% of wagers on the Under.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies game info

• Date: Thursday, March 9, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
• Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN

Warriors-Grizzlies pick made 3/9/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.

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