Warriors vs. Kings Game 3 odds, prediction: NBA picks

After entering the first round as massive underdogs, the Kings have shocked the league with two wins on their home floor over the defending NBA champions, who hadn’t fallen behind 2-0 in a series since 2007.

Now the Warriors are back on their home court, and the betting market is all in on the Dubs as modest favorites – even with Draymond Green suspended for Game 3 and two losses already on the ledger for Golden State in this matchup.

Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which tips off at 10 p.m. ET on TNT.

Warriors vs. Kings odds

• Warriors -5.5 (-115), moneyline -250
• Kings +5.5 (-105), moneyline +200
• O/U 240.5 (-110)

Warriors vs. Kings prediction and analysis

(10 p.m. ET on TNT)

Before the odds were released for Thursday’s game, I was ready to back the Warriors against the spread in a quintessential “backs against the wall” spot for the defending champions at home.

Then I saw the opening line, which was as high as -7.5 in favor of Golden State before news of Green’s suspension.

Even that didn’t knock this line too far down, and I can’t justify laying this big of a price on a team that simply hasn’t earned it to this point.

To start, let’s at least acknowledge the case for the Warriors, because it’s a compelling one: they’ve won 33 of their 41 home games this year (80.5%) with the NBA’s fourth-best record as home favorites (22-13-1 ATS).

They’ve also posted a stellar 7-2 ATS record over the last two decades following consecutive playoff losses, which hasn’t happened since the 2019 Finals.

Yet there’s a reason Golden State is facing adversity it hasn’t seen in years: it isn’t nearly as good as those teams of yesteryear.

And this price completely dismisses what we’ve seen through the first two games of this series.

Once again, the Warriors didn’t seem to have much of an answer for De’Aaron Fox, who cooled off from three (2-of-10) but still led the Kings with 24 points, nine assists and four steals in Monday’s win.

Both triples were huge: he hit one in the first quarter to snap his team’s 0-for-11 start from deep, and he buried one with 2:17 left to take control of the game for good.

This time, Domantas Sabonis (24 points) joined the scoring parade after one of his least productive outings of the year in Game 1.

He was bruised and battered by the end of Game 2 – he’s listed as questionable for Thursday but seems likely to play – yet his size proved too much for the Warriors, who struggled to keep him off the glass (4 offensive rebounds) or the free-throw line (8-of-12).

Now they’ll have to try to corral him without Green, whose absence simply can’t be overstated in this contest – especially on the defensive end.

Before he was ejected in Game 2, the Kings had scored 91 points in roughly 41 minutes.

With him sidelined, they poured in 23 points over the final seven minutes and posted a ridiculous 153 offensive rating to put the game away.

Since Kevin Durant left the team in 2019, the Warriors are 31-45 straight up in 76 games without Green, and he’s only ever missed one playoff game in his career: that fateful Game 5 loss in the 2016 Finals, when his suspension swung the entire series in Cleveland’s favor.

The biggest difference between that game and this one?

Golden State was up 3-1 in that series and was clearly the better team on paper.

That isn’t the case here.

And until the market catches up to the offensive brilliance we’ve seen from Sacramento, we’ll gladly keep taking the points.