Kings vs Warriors NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

Domantas Sabonis won't have to deal with Draymond Green in Game 3, but he will have to deal with a larger Warriors front line and their renewed focus on boxing out, which our NBA picks see hurting his bottom line.

The Golden State Warriors are backed into a 0-2 corner in their first round series with the Sacramento Kings, with Game 3 tipping off in San Francisco tonight.

Despite back-to-back losses, Draymond Green’s suspension, and a number of key role players listed as questionable Thursday, oddsmakers are giving the defending champions the benefit of the doubt. The NBA playoff odds have Golden State as a 6-point favorite for Game 3.

I dig into the spread and Over/Under for this Western Conference clash and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. Warriors on April 20.

Kings vs Warriors Game 3 best odds

Kings vs Warriors Game 3 picks and predictions

When an offense is as good as the Sacramento Kings, you can’t give them extra chances to score. That’s something the Warriors are finding out the hard way, with Sacramento crashing the offensive glass in the opening two games of his Western Conference quarterfinal set.

The Kings have snatched up 29 total offensive rebounds, and that’s helped power 41 second-chance points for the most potent offensive attack in the NBA. Nine of those offensive boards have come from center Domantas Sabonis, who has posted overall rebounding efforts of nine and 16 so far in this series.

Sabonis has a rebound prop of 13.5 for Game 3 with the Under priced as high as -128. He averaged 12.4 boards per game in the post-break slate and his projections for tonight’s game in Golden State flirt with 13 rebounds but not much more. My outlook has Sabonis grabbing 12.8 rebounds, but the floor could be lower considering what we will see from the Warriors.

With Draymond Green out and the Dubs potentially down defensive stoppers Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton Jr., head coach Steve Kerr will roll out a bigger lineup featuring more minutes from Kevin Looney, but also upticks from interior bangers like JaMychal Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and Anthony Lamb.

On top of that additional size, Kerr threw more zone defense at Sacramento in Game 2 in order to mask some of the Warriors’ defensive shortcomings with guys like Jordan Poole, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson struggling to contain the Kings’ speedier perimeter players.

Sabonis operates from the high post in the Kings’ offense, either working off pick-and-rolls or handoff screens, and will find himself battling a taller and packed Golden State interior on the offensive glass. And with Kerr emphasizing the box-out on that end after getting exposed the past two games, those chances for offensive boards won’t be as plentiful.

On the defensive end, Sabonis and Sacto take on a Golden State offense that will embrace the home-court edge after two rough shooting games on the road, not allowing for as many rebounding opportunities. The Dubs boast the 12th-best rebound rate at home (51%) versus the fifth-worst on the road (48.2%).

The Warriors shoot better than 48% inside the Chase Center and will see an improvement on their 3-point touch in their own gym after shooting just 32.2% from beyond the arc in the opening two games of the series. The Dubs fired at an NBA-best 39.1% from distance at home this year.

While Sabonis was a monster on the glass with 16 rebounds in Game 1, followed by nine in Game 2, he snatched 14 or more boards only 10 times in his final 26 outings of the regular season, averaging 12.3 in that span.

The Under 13.5 on his rebounding prop is as expensive as -139 at some shops, however, you can find that bet as low as -108 at BetRivers/UniBet books.

My best bet: Domantas Sabonis Under 13.5 rebounds (-108)

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Kings vs Warriors Game 3 spread analysis

The Game 3 spread is an interesting line that isn’t done taking shape ahead of this 10 p.m. ET tipoff. Books opened Golden State as big as a 7-point home favorite and we saw that tick to -7.5 with early play on the desperate Dubs.

However, with the league suspending Warriors forward Draymond Green for Game 3 after he stomped on the chest of fallen Kings center Domantas Sabonis in Monday’s 114-106 loss at Sacramento, the spread took a dive to -6. That line dipped as low as Golden State -5.5 with players like Jordan Poole (ankle), Gary Payton Jr. (illness), and Andrew Wiggins (shoulder) listed as questionable.

Despite the results of the first two games and those missing pieces, the betting market has some interesting splits in terms of ticket count versus handle on Game 3. According to BetMGM, 52% of bet count is taking the points with the Kings while 76% of the money wagered is riding on the Warriors as home chalk.

That opinion on the home side is warranted considering how good Golden State has been inside the Chase Center this season — especially when compared to its performance on the road. The Warriors boasted a post-break net rating of +11 as hosts, going 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their final dozen home stands of the regular season.

While Sacramento couldn't steal a win inside in its two trips to the Bay Area earlier in the season, it did manage to cover in both games and is the best road bet in the NBA at 27-14 ATS. The Kings own the second-highest net rating on the road, at +7.7 since the All-Star break, and their high-powered offense doesn’t skip a beat in opposing gyms.

Golden State’s defense is far better at home — 108.4 rating at home (3rd) versus 118.3 on the road (28th) — but many of its key defensive pieces are either out or up in the air for tonight’s Game 3. The Kings are 14-18 SU but 19-13 ATS when getting the points, including a 13-7 ATS count as road dogs.

Kings vs Warriors Game 3 Over/Under analysis

The Game 3 Over/Under opened at 238.5 points with the series swinging back to San Francisco. But with Green’s absence taking a major cog out of the Golden State defense, as well as defenders like Wiggins and Payton questionable, this total has ticked up to 240.5 points as of Thursday afternoon.

According to BetMGM action reports, the handle on tonight’s total is relatively split, but 70% of the tickets are taking the Under.

After a high-scoring track meet in Game 1, which featured 249 combined points blowing past the closing total of 237.5, Game 2 was more of a defensive grinder, with Sacramento winning 114-106 and staying well below the 238.5-point total on Monday.

Game 2 boasted a pace rating of 103.0, which was a tick slower than the Game 1 tempo of 105.5, but the downtick in scoring was due to both teams unable to make from beyond the arc.

Golden State shot 48% overall from the field but wasn’t great from distance, shooting just 13-for-40 from beyond the arc. The Warriors also coughed up the ball 20 times and received just 21 points off the bench — a significant shortage of support from a unit that ranked seventh in scoring off the pine this season (37.9 ppg).

The Kings were also shaky offensively, making nine of their 38 shots from distance. But they made up for that lack of long-range pop with 25 points off turnovers and got 36 points from the reserves. That scoring depth has played a big role in the first two games and will be even more important tonight if the Dubs run shorthanded.

The Warriors did roll out zone looks in the second half, which hindered the Kings offense and allowed Golden State to hide some defensive liability. With Green out and top one-on-one defenders in Wiggins and Payton questionable, Steve Kerr could lean into the zone defense even more in Game 3.

If Golden State can shoot at a high percentage — or at least better than the first two games — they'll force the Kings to start possessions off the inbounds and allow them time to set up the zone on the other end, which will drag the pace of the game down.

Kings vs Warriors betting trend to know

Since 2007, NBA playoff teams down 0-2 in the series and playing Game 3 at home are 79-47-9 against the first-half spread. However, as books got wise to this trend, they started padding 1H spread and that has left this “0-2 trend” to go 15-15-2 1H ATS since 2015.

Golden State opened as a 4-point 1H favorite and even with Green suspended and key players questionable, the Warriors remain 4-point favorite in the opening 24 minutes despite the full-game spread sit at -6.

Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Warriors.