Warriors vs Kings NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

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30 April 2023

Warriors vs Kings NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

Malik Monk has been a welcome star for the Kings in their first-round series with Golden State and our NBA betting picks break down why you should expect another clutch scoring performance in Game 7 — read more below.

Game 7: The two sweetest words in the English language.

Not many would have predicted that the Sacramento Kings would have a chance to close out the defending champion Golden State Warriors at home when the season began, and perhaps fewer still after they dropped three in a row before a game at Chase Center. They’ll have a chance to do just that on Sunday, with a roaring home crowd cheering them all the way.

The Kings have been full of surprises, utterly resilient, and a joy to watch. If the Warriors are going to win this series now, they’ll have to play like champions and get it done on the road, where they have been historically poor this season.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 7 of Warriors vs. Kings turn to Malik Monk, whose play has been one of the primary reasons that Golden State now faces elimination.

Warriors vs Kings Game 7 best odds

Warriors vs Kings Game 7 picks and predictions

There are X-factors, and then there is what Malik Monk has done in this series against the Golden State Warriors.

When the Sacramento Kings originally signed Monk on the heels of a standout season with the Lakers last offseason, it was a nice story more than anything else. It was cool that Monk and De’Aaron Fox were reuniting in the pros, and Monk seemed well-suited to give them a scoring punch off the bench as they tried to end the longest playoff drought in North American pro sports.

But what Monk has done this season, and particularly in these playoffs, has revealed that he has a lot more to offer than just a sixth-man spark off the bench. Monk has been a dynamic two-way player, scoring at all three levels, and he has the Warriors on their heels.

Monk has never looked more comfortable attacking the rim in his career than he does right now. He’s still taking open in-rhythm threes, but off offensive rebounds, in transition, or any pass that isn’t right on the mark. he is catching, putting his head down, and attacking the rim with force. Not only is he finishing inside at a high level, but he’s also drawn 10+ free throws in three of the six games and is hitting them at a 90% clip.

Kevin Huerter has also been in a shooting slump most of the series, which has opened up more opportunity for Monk. After averaging 22.3 minutes a night in the regular season, Monk is up to 29 per game in the playoffs. If Kevin Huerter freezes up in Game 7, don’t be surprised if Monk is once again in the closing lineup.

Against the Warriors' two big alignments with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green, Monk was the only player on the Kings other than Fox comfortable isolating and putting Looney in the mix and attacking off the dribble. Monk was also a crucial part of the Kings' Game 6 strategy to attack Steph Curry more. Monk worked in isolation and in pick and roll to go at Curry relentlessly, hoping to wear him down and limit his offensive game.

Monk has averaged 19.8 points per game on 60.5% true shooting in the series, and that’s even accounting for the lone clunker in Game 3. He’s become a crucial part of the Kings’ offense, and he’s proven to be a matchup problem for a number of Golden State’s high minute players. With the series on the line, I’m expecting more of the same from Monk on Sunday.

My best bet: Malik Monk Over 17.5 points (-117)

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Warriors vs Kings Game 7 spread analysis

The line for this game has flipped, from the Warriors as -1.5-point favorites to 1.5-point dogs, and there’s good reason to believe in the momentum shifting toward Sacramento. Outside of Game 3, when nobody on the Kings was prepared to match Golden State’s desperation, the Kings have been the better team or right there with them.

The Kings finally targeted Curry in the pick-and-roll in Game 6, something they had done only sparingly in the previous games. They eviscerated Jordan Poole as well, who added nothing of value back on the offensive end (he finished 1-9 from two). The Kings also revived their transition attack from earlier in the series, attacking off make-or-miss, and using their youth and superior speed to hit the Warriors where it hurt. The Kings consistently got better shots.

They also went away from Harrison Barnes in Game 6, riding rookie Keegan Murray in his place to a team-leading 45 minutes played. Murray added shooting, rebounding, playmaking, and defense, and looks completely reborn after a quiet first few games in the series.

It’s hard to bet against the greatness of the Warriors, but this Kings team is playing better right now. My only hesitancy is that the Warriors have experience playing in Game 7s, and while the Kings have met every challenge so far, you never know how a young team will react to that environment.

Warriors vs Kings Game 7 Over/Under analysis

You would never know that the Kings were one of the NBA’s worst defensive teams during the regular season. Fox has been nails defending on an island, Monk made multiple game-changing blocks in Game 6, and Domantas Sabonis — while struggling on offense — did incredible work denying the Warriors on the interior. The Warriors finished 18-46 in the paint, an area that Golden State made a point of to start attacking more after Game 2.

But Game 7s can unnerve even the most steely-hearted players. The stakes are massive, crowds get audibly anxious, and defenses are more locked in on opposing plans of attack than in any other game of basketball a player has played in their life. The best players play massive minutes, get tired, and miss more. I expect the Warriors to weather that a bit better than the Kings, but I also expect both offenses to underperform.

The deeper a playoff series goes, the more they trend toward the Under, and Game 7 is the deepest of all deep playoff waters. This line has fallen from 230.5 to 229.5, and I’d probably bet it as low as 228.