Warriors vs Knicks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 February 2024

Warriors vs Knicks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Chef Curry's shot has been stuck in the walk-in the past few games, but his cold streak creates a buy-low opportunity that our NBA picks are jumping on as the Warriors visit the Knicks this evening.

The New York Knicks' stretch of injury misery continued this week, when ascendant star PG Jalen Brunson was sidelined with a neck injury shortly before Tuesday's tilt against the Pelicans.

With the Golden State Warriors 8-2 in their last 10 games and visiting tonight, the Knicks are praying (better find a church) that Brunson can suit up, tilting NBA odds that currently see them as 4-point underdogs.

For now, with a fringe MVP odds candidate's status up in the air, my free NBA picks will dissect what we can about this matchup, and help our bankrolls make a leap on February 29.

Warriors vs Knicks odds

Warriors vs Knicks predictions

In these situations — where Jalen Brunson's potential absence could affect pretty much everything about how the Knicks approach this game — it's best to ask yourself what, if anything, won't be affected by this variable.

It's certainly what sportsbooks are doing, with virtually no Knicks player props available (except Brunson, obviously lol) as of Thursday morning, further limiting selection in a spot where I'd already stray from the spread and total until we know more about Brunson. And it's likely we won't for some time; he was clear of the injury report all day Tuesday and announced out less than two hours before tipoff — this looks like a pretty touch-and-go situation.

So, what's a punter to do? I'm tempted to target what's by far the most stable and dependable part of the Warriors' ethos.

We're seeing depression in Stephen Curry odds for points markets tonight, partly because Curry has been colder than a February jog in Central Park over the past few games. Steph has remarkably scored more than 20 points just once in the past five outings while going 8-for-37 (22%) from 3-point range over the last three.

Clearly, neither of these things is going to last. Curry's better at shooting a basketball than any human that has ever walked this Earth, and it's only a matter of time before he snaps himself back into a groove with GSW's resurrection of its season approaching the playoff push.

There are several other reasons to target Curry beyond an appealing buy-low.

Firstly, before this mini-funk, he was averaging 33.9 points over his previous 10 games, and Golden State's current success streak correlates almost perfectly with him going nuclear. With Andrew Wiggins out for personal reasons, his scoring will be even more crucial tonight. Despite mighty struggles earlier in the season, Wiggins had been competent on offense this month (15.4 ppg on almost 55% shooting over his last nine), and Curry's bound to see extra looks in his absence.

Furthermore, the Knicks allow 3-pointers at a Top-10 frequency, while opponents also convert at an above-average rate against them from distance. This is a recipe for disaster against Curry, and likely to only get worse for New York with OG Anunoby — not only its best perimeter defender, but likely the NBA's — sidelined.

The spotlight of a national TV game in the building where he broke the all-time 3-point record is somewhat anecdotal, but Curry's one of the league's premier showmen, and will likely be taking this game more seriously than he did the other night, when he went 6-for-21 against the f***ing Wizards.

My best bet: Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Warriors vs Knicks same-game parlay

Stephen Curry Over 27.5 pointsIsaiah Hartenstein Over 6.5 pointsJosh Hart Over 28.5 points + rebounds +assists

So, full disclosure, I'm writing this SGP pick mid-afternoon ET, several hours after the piece was initially published this morning. This was due to the lack of availability of Knicks prop markets earlier this morning.

Since then, Curry's scoring market has moved a point in our favor, but I'm still fine taking the Over on 27.5 for the sake of this pick.

Elsewhere, Isaiah Hartenstein makes his return to the lineup, with a huge size edge on the Warriors in the middle. While there's no denying Draymond Green's an apex defender who's very much been back on his bullshit lately (I mean locking down the interior, not recklessly assaulting people), Hartenstein's a deft-footed 7-footer who can impose on Draymond, especially with his verticality on lobs. Add in the potential for putbacks against an undersized center (Knicks lead the league in OReb%), and this looks like a solid second leg.

The third leg — Josh Hart to stuff the stat sheet — is somewhat contingent on Brunson sitting again, but is a play I still like with him suiting up. Within Brunson, Hart becomes one of the Knicks' lead playmakers by default, on top of a necessary scoring outlet. He's arguably the best-rebounding guard in the NBA and will wax the glass regardless, already averaging 29 PRA on the month — many of those minutes played alongside Brunson. He's cleared the 28.5 total in four straight, with plenty of potential to again tonight.

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Warriors vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis

Again, I'd stay away from betting the spread or total in this game given Brunson's status. He's become a borderline-heliocentric force for New York's offense with Randle and Anunoby in suits, and everything about this matchup changes if he's given the green light.

The Knicks were 2.5-point underdogs to the Pelicans before Brunson's injury was announced on Tuesday. They ended up losing by 23.

If you're really tempted to play Woj and try to get ahead of the injury news, the Warriors took the early sharp money, with most books now trading at GSW -4 or -4.5, quickly moving from an opening of -3 or -2.5 at most outlets. Curiously, industry benchmark-setter was one of the last books to post, meeting others at -4 after early money poured in.

The total's set at an accessible 223, with mild movement to the Under since a 224 opening, but I still want nothing to do with it. New York can look offensively challenged on good nights and with its three leading scorers all sidelined Tuesday, getting decent looks was a true challenge.

Golden State's defense has been elite of late (third in D-rating over the last 15 games), which is likely helping the early Under leans, but most handicaps here get immediately blown up if Brunson plays. Approach with caution.