Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/18/2024
This season, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks weekday game, providing best bets along the way. By using in-depth knowledge on the Knicks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end. These bets will include moneylines, totals, spreads, and player props.
On Thursday night, the Knicks began a four-game West Coast road trip, with a visit to Portland. New York was able to clamp down on defense to earn a 105-93 victory as Jalen Brunson’s 45 points carried them offensively. New York held Portland to just 40.5% from the field, and disrupted them on offense, forcing 17 turnovers from the Trail Blazers.
From a betting perspective, we had our second consecutive perfect night. The Knicks immaculate defense ensured the season-low 205-point total wasn’t eclipsed, and we double downed on a solid defensive showing, as OG Anunoby got Over 1.5 steals, finishing with 2.
On Saturday night, the Knicks extended their win streak to 3, taking down the Sacramento Kings 98-91. Their dominant defense was on full display once again, and Jalen Brunson became the 4th player in Knicks history to put together back-to-back 40-point games, as he finished with 42 points.
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Tonight, the Knicks (40-27) continue their road trip with a visit to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors (35-31). Golden State is currently sitting in the 9th seed in the Western Conference and appears destined to feature in the play-in tournament, with -2000 odds to do so. Golden State has been dealing with a nagging Steph Curry injury and dropped 3 of their last 4 games before he returned to the lineup on Saturday night. Curry made an instant impact, scoring 31 points in a road win against the Lakers, and further hammered home the fact that this team will only go as far as he can take them. The Warriors dynasty is in the rearview mirror, and Golden State is a remarkably average basketball team. They have the 11th ranked offense and 15th ranked defense, and if they were named anything else, they’d be pegged as an easy first round exit. However, the Warriors still have the aging core of Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. And while the trio may have lost a step or two in recent years, they are still more than capable of making waves down the stretch.
Golden State may still have the ‘Splash Brothers’ keeping them relevant, and these two teams couldn’t be further apart in terms of playstyle. A flashy Golden State offense will turn heads, but they have been nowhere near as effective as a truly dominant Knicks defense. Since OG Anunoby made his Knicks debut on January 1 of this year, New York has gone 15-2 with him in the lineup, and 8-10 while he was on the sidelines with an injury. In those 17 games with Anunoby, New York has allowed just 98.2 PPG, more than 8 points less than the league’s best defense, beating out the 106.6 PPG allowed by the Minnesota Timberwolves. To put it into perspective, New York still has a stellar defense without Anunoby, as they allowed 106.2 PPG in the 18 games he was on the sidelines. However, a 30th ranked pace of play makes these numbers look better than they are, and they are still the 7th ranked defense on the season. With Anunoby in the lineup, the Knicks have the best defensive rating, and he truly transforms the Knicks into a defensive powerhouse. There is no ceiling on this team as long as they stay healthy and continue to dominate on the defensive end of the floor.
This will be a very intriguing matchup tonight in California, as there are few better places than Warriors home court to truly test New York’s defensive mettle. The Warriors have only had a sub 220 closing total once this season, and that was a 216-point total against the Timberwolves in the first few weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve routinely been in the 230’s, until tonight. The 211.5 total is by far the lowest for the Warriors this season, as it just emphasizes how good this Knicks defense is expected to be. Anunoby is the top wing defender in the league. And with Brunson doing much of the heavy lifting on offense, and Julius Randle still on the sidelines, the Knicks have filled their starting lineup with other defensive workhorses. Isaiah Hartenstein has been immaculate at defending the paint with Mitchell Robinson out. Hartenstein averages just 2.8 fouls per game, which has allowed him to stay out of foul trouble and play heavy minutes as the Knicks only NBA caliber big man. DiVincenzo is known for the 3 ball, but his quick hands on defense generates plenty of turnovers and deflections, making him a lethal combo with Anunoby.
Golden State will struggle to score at the same rate as they are used to this season, and New York will test their mental strength when they go through long droughts. The spread is set at 5.5 points in favor of the Warriors. And even though they are the home team, there is no way I’ll be stepping in front of this Knicks defense in what should be a low-scoring game. This spread is more than generous enough to take a stab with the free points, and we’ll even be sprinkling on the +170 moneyline too. New York’s perimeter defense is the best in the league, and when the ‘Splash Brothers’ get shut down from deep, Golden State will struggle to score every single time they march down the court. We can’t expect another 40-point outburst from Brunson, but there are enough offensive weapons on New York to keep this one close, if not win outright.
The second bet of the night will be on the total, and we have no choice but to take the Under once again. The Knicks have gone Under the total in 11 of their last 12 games, including 5 straight heading into tonight’s game. While this is obviously a very low total for the Warriors, who can easily score into the 130’s on a nightly basis, this is also a high total for the Knicks standards. Their defense has been truly dominant, and Golden State will be forced to match their defensive intensity, as they won’t be able to outgun New York in a shootout. A total of 211.5 is still high enough to leave us some wiggle room with the Under.
Pick: New York Knicks (+5.5) 3 Units
Pick: New York Knicks ML +170 1 Unit
Pick: Knicks vs Warriors Under 211.5 1 Unit
2023-24 Season record:
ML Record: 10-4
Spread Record: 20-16
Total Record: 14-10
Player Props Record: 18-30
Total: 62-60
Up 2.3 Units
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