Warriors vs. Knicks Prediction, Picks, Odds
Warriors vs. Knicks Prediction
Golden State Warriors Preview
The Warriors’ roller coaster of a season went through another loop two weeks ago when Steven Kerr opted to bring Klay Thompson off the bench for the first time since his rookie season in 2011-12. The four-time champion responded to the decision by scoring 35 points before he dropped three the very next game in a perfect microcosm of his up-and-down season.
In five games since being relegated to the bench, Thompson averaged 19.8 points (2.6 above his season average) on 44.9% three-point shooting.
The second half of the Splash Brothers was replaced in the starting lineup by rookie Brandin Podziemski, who demonstrated an impressive ability to keep the ball moving and come up with offensive rebounds while also scoring roughly 10 points per night.
The Dubs rank fifth in defensive and sixth in offensive efficiency since the start of February. They still turn the ball over at a rate above the league average but are just 19th, which is a substantial improvement from where they previously were.
Golden State also shot 39.3% from long range during that span, which is a major reason the offense popped so greatly.
As well as the team is playing, Steph Curry is nowhere near his best. He averaged just 20.2 points on 27.6% three-point shooting over his last five outings. He’s also been a mixed back in New York, scoring more than 29 three times but fewer than 22 four times in his last seven games in Madison Square Garden.
Chris Paul made his return to the lineup from an injury on Tuesday against the Washington Wizards and scored nine points with six assists, finishing as a +17 in 22 minutes.
New York Knicks Preview
The Knicks might just be the second-best team in the Eastern Conference at full strength. They dominated the league after trading for OG Anunoby around the new year and were great even after he went out, though they hit a rut just before the All-Star break.
For the year, the Knicks are eighth in scoring differential per 100 possessions (and seventh at home, +5.9)—but over the last eight games, they rank just 27th in this department.
Jalen Brunson (questionable - neck) has been everything for his squad. He averaged 32.4 points and 7.7 assists in February and scored 33 or more in six of his last nine games.
Donte DiVincenzo also shone in an enlarged role, averaging 22.3 points and 4.8 threes on 39% long-range shooting during the month. But even despite their efforts, the Knicks are 21st in threes and 28th in percentage since Feb. 1.
Despite the injuries and cold streak, New York still ranked eighth in rebound rate over the last few weeks. Unfortunately for them, the Warriors lead the league in that category. This creates an interesting matchup since the Knicks allowed the third-fewest second-chance points during that time, while Golden State led all teams in second-chance points.
If there is an area for the Knicks to exploit, it’s Golden State’s constant change and lack of continuity. With Andrew Wiggins out for personal reasons, Klay still transitioning to the second unit, and Paul’s return, the bonds forged through the New York fire could give them an advantage whenever the starters are off the court.
For what it’s worth, both teams rank in the top eight in bench net rating.
Warriors vs. Knicks Betting Pick
It’s easy to understand why the Warriors are favored in this game. The real question is whether they will cover the 4.5 points.
As famous of a venue as MSG is, the Warriors have the fifth-best road net rating and are 7-1 away from their building in February.
With all of that said, the Warriors only played a couple of tough opponents recently and had mixed results. If Brunson plays, his tenacity and shot creation are enough of a reason for us to take the Knicks with the points—but only if he plays.
Warriors vs. Knicks pick: Knicks +4.5 at BetMGM
How to Watch Warriors vs. Knicks
When: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV: TNT
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