Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2024 MLB Playoffs and World Series

The longest active drought in Major League Baseball is active no more. In their 63rd season as a franchise, the Texas Rangers finally won their first World Series, and in the most savage way possible, going a perfect 11-0 on the road, repeatedly ripping out hearts in Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Houston and Arizona.

Well done, Rangers.

Now, can you become MLB's first back-to-back champion in more than two decades?

An awful lot will change before Opening Day 2024.

Dozens, perhaps even hundreds, of free agents will find new homes, trades will go down, offseason injuries will occur, guys will retire and top prospects will "graduate" to become top Rookie of the Year candidates.

But given what we know about rosters (and what we think teams might try to do this offseason), here are some way, way, way too early projections for next season's standings and postseason bracket.

From last year's way-too-early predictions, we only got five out of 12 postseason teams correct. Not great, though also not that terrible considering how much changed throughout the offseason.

Of the seven misses, we did have Milwaukee (87 wins), Tampa Bay (86 wins), Arizona (86 wins), Texas (83 wins) and Baltimore (81 wins) all at least in the mix for a playoff spot. The only egregious miss was Miami (projected for 65 wins), and, well, I still don't understand how the Marlins (-57 run differential) edged out both San Diego (+104 run differential) and Chicago (+98 run differential).

Also, had the correct teams losing in the ALCS (Houston) and NLCS (Philadelphia) for what extremely little that's worth.

But now, I humbly submit the following to Freezing Cold Takes.

Biggest Unknown: How desperate are the Yankees?

The New York Yankees are basically already committed to exceeding next year's luxury tax threshold.

Just between Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton, they're at $108 million. Throw in Carlos Rodón, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Tommy Kahnle and the dead/retained money owed to Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson and you're looking at $188.3 million. That's before even getting into arbitration projections for the likes of Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, Nestor Cortes, etc.

Staying under $237 million just isn't feasible here.

And there was talk at the end of the regular season about owner Hal Steinbrenner ordering a "full audit" this offseason that would lead to "massive changes."

What exactly does that mean?

Are the Bronx Bombers going to follow the lead of the 2023 New York Mets and spend like there's no tomorrow, hoping for a much better outcome than what happened this season in Queens?

Or after posting their worst record (82-80) since 1992, are they going to enter the winter meetings with "Everything (except for Judge and Cole) Must Go!" flyers, hoping to trade away anyone and everyone who has underperformed over the past two seasons?

As far as offseason #content is concerned, the Yankees' level of aggression/desperation is probably the biggest variable outside of Shohei Ohtani. (Who they can't reasonably be expected to sign when they've already got Stanton clogging up the DH spot, right? Right?!)

If they're making trades and swinging big for the likes of Aaron Nola and Cody Bellinger, it'll be a wild ride through December.

Other Big Unknowns

• Are the Baltimore Orioles actually going to spend money this offseason to try to defend a rare division crown?
• Will the Tampa Bay Rays get any resolution on Wander Franco? And might they trade away Tyler Glasnow's $25 million salary?
• Can the Red Sox improve their pitching staff enough to get out of the basement?

Projected 2024 AL East Standings

1. Baltimore Orioles (95-67)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70; wild card)
3. New York Yankees (89-73)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (86-76)
5. Boston Red Sox (79-83)

Biggest Unknown: Will anyone challenge the Twins?

With all due respect to the Minnesota Twins, this division was just plain terrible in 2023.

Is there any good reason to expect that to change next year?

Detroit is finally, mercifully no longer stuck with paying Miguel Cabrera $30+ million per year, but the Tigers are likely going to lose their best player (Eduardo Rodriguez) to free agency. While they now have the room in the budget to try to make a big splash or two, is there any point in doing so until they're at least a little bit closer to looking like a contender?

Chicago is in a similar boat, with what currently projects to be a much lower opening day payroll than it had seven months ago. They could be in a good spot to make a push in 2025, but next season is already looking like another lost cause.

Kansas City is nowhere close to the end of its rebuild. The World Series just featured two teams who each had 100+ losses two seasons ago, but it feels like the Royals will be lucky to contend again before Bobby Witt Jr. hits free agency in four years.

Cleveland is the best candidate to make a run at the Twins after a season full of rookie pitchers making good first impressions. Do they have enough offense, though? Are they willing to pay to get better hitting? Would they trade Shane Bieber for an outfielder who can occasionally homer? (Sending him to St. Louis for Tyler O'Neill almost makes too much sense for both teams.) Is shortstop Brayan Rocchio ready to make a real impact after getting a few little tastes of the majors this year?

For now, the division seems to clearly run through Minnesota again, even though the Twins need to figure out how to resign/replace Sonny Gray in the rotation.

Other Big Unknowns

• Are the White Sox done with Tim Anderson?
• Is this the year Royce Lewis gets and stays healthy for Minnesota?
• Is there any chance in hell Javier Báez declines his four-year, $98 million player option to stay in Detroit?

Projected 2024 AL Central Standings

1. Minnesota Twins (86-76)
2. Cleveland Guardians (81-81)
3. Detroit Tigers (75-87)
4. Chicago White Sox (67-95)
5. Kansas City Royals (57-105)

Biggest Unknown: Is there any chance Shohei Ohtani stays with the Angels?

He won't pitch in 2024 and he is likely headed for at least half a billion dollars in free agency, but where will Ohtani land?

It is, without a close runner-up, the biggest domino ready to topple at some point in the next two months.

What are the chances he remains an Angel?

And where can we actually place bets on where he's going to sign?

Here's maybe the bigger question for the AL West forecast, though: Even if he did stay with the Angels, would it matter? Because I don't know if you've looked lately for Ohtani's career numbers in the postseason, but they do not exist. The Halos have had one of the greatest spectacles in MLB history for the past six years and have yet to even produce a winning record.

And it's not like there's a vacuum atop the AL West standings.

Texas does have a ton of pitchers hitting free agency, but Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray are all coming back, along with every noteworthy hitter except for Mitch Garver. The Rangers will be just fine in their quest to return to the World Series. And Houston and Seattle have little more than a corner outfielder (Michael Brantley and Teoscar Hernández) and a veteran catcher (Martin Maldonado and Tom Murphy) hitting free agency. The Astros might also lose Hector Neris (player option), but both teams return well intact in 2024.

At least the Angels should still finish ahead of Oakland, though.

Should.

Other Big Unknowns

• Will Jacob deGrom actually be able to make it back to the mound for the Rangers by August?
• What about Robbie Ray for Seattle, who underwent his Tommy John surgery in early May, more than a month before deGrom?
• Or Houston's Luis Garcia, who got his TJ done in between those two aces? After this year's three-way photo finish, those three timelines could be crucial.

Projected 2024 AL West Standings

1. Seattle Mariners (93-69)
2. Houston Astros (91-71; wild card)
3. Texas Rangers (90-72; wild card)
4. Los Angeles Angels (70-92)
5. Oakland A's (52-110)

Biggest Unknown: How desperate are the Mets?

Yes, it's the exact same unknown as the AL East: WTF will the NYC team do?

As with the Yankees, the Mets are already committed to about $200 million for next season. Just under $50 million of that is the retained money due to Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and James McCann, while the combination of Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Jeff McNeil, Omar Narváez*, Adam Ottavino* and Brooks Raley^ make up the other $147.425 million.

Throw in somewhere around $20 million due to Pete Alonso in his final year of arbitration plus at least another $20 million to fill out the rest of the roster even if they do absolutely nothing in free agency and Steve Cohen seems destined for another luxury tax payment.

They could get under the $237 million threshold by trading away Quintana and/or Alonso.

They also could just embrace the luxury tax life once again by signing Shohei Ohtani and/or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Patience is a virtue, but it hasn't been Cohen's way of running the franchise. He threw a ton of money at Francisco Lindor pretty much immediately upon taking the reins. After the Giants balked at Carlos Correa, Cohen called $315 million dibs and then changed his mind, too. And he kept insisting he wouldn't embrace a fire sale at this year's trade deadline...until he did.

If you think you know what the Mets are going to do this offseason, you're only deluding yourself.

They are the ultimate wild card.

Other Big Unknowns

• With seven $18+ million salaries on the books, how will the Phillies go about replacing Aaron Nola?
• Is Charlie Morton coming back to Atlanta at 40 years young for another $20 million?
• What will become of the Marlins with Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John) out for the year and Jorge Soler ($9 million player option) all but certain to leave?

Projected 2024 NL East Standings

1. Atlanta Braves (98-64)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (91-71; wild card)
3. New York Mets (84-78)
4. Washington Nationals (69-93)
5. Miami Marlins (65-97)

*player option
^club option

Biggest Unknown: Who wants it the most in 2024?

This offseason is something of a "Choose Your Own Adventure" book for the entire NL Central.

The Milwaukee Brewers are at a crossroads with a ton of key players entering their final season before free agency—including Brandon Woodruff, who underwent shoulder surgery in October that was initially feared might keep him sidelined for all of 2024. Do they trade away Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, etc. while they have good value? Or do they add to their talent pool in hopes of capitalizing on what might be their last ride as a contender for a few years?

The Chicago Cubs are presumably going to lose Cody Bellinger, but could they add one or two of the many coveted starting pitchers in this free agent cycle?

If the Cubs don't load up on quality pitching, might the St. Louis Cardinals do so, hoping to bounce right back from their worst season in more than three decades? Or, if they don't, will Paul Goldschmidt be on the trade block?

Might the Cincinnati Reds do some major spending on pitching to provide some support to their very-young-but-very-talented nucleus of batters?

And amid all the uncertainty, might we even see the Pittsburgh Pirates throw their hat in the ring? They don't have enough pierogies to sign Shohei Ohtani, but they've got a nice little core brewing in Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller, David Bednar, Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz. They don't need to go nuts this offseason in order to have a fighting chance. Sign one more arm. Sign one more bat. Maybe plan on calling up Paul Skenes over the summer if things are going well. Stranger things have happened.

Other Big Unknowns

• Will the Cubs keep Kyle Hendricks on a $16 million club option and/or end up with Marcus Stroman's $21 million player option?
• Does 19-year-old OF Jackson Chourio—one of the highest rated prospects—crack Milwaukee's opening day roster?
• Will Joey Votto be back with the Reds?

Projected 2024 NL Central Standings

1. Chicago Cubs (90-72)
2. Cincinnati Reds (87-75)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (84-78)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93)

Biggest Unknown: Where do the Dodgers invest all of their money?

Earlier this week, we published projected price tags for the top free agents in this year's cycle, including a prediction for where each player might sign. And all sorts of folks were up in arms about how many of those top free agents (three of the 10) landed with the Dodgers.

Newsflash: Los Angeles has a lot of money to spend this offseason.

Mookie Betts ($30 million) and Freddie Freeman ($27 million) ain't cheap, but if the Dodgers decline club options on Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson and Alex Reyes, they're going to enter free agency with a payroll just a shade over $100 million.

It'll be more like $150 million after accounting for arbitration figures on Will Smith, Walker Buehler, etc, but their 2024 budget may well be $300 million or greater.

They could sign Shohei Ohtani. And Josh Hader. And Matt Chapman. And bring back Clayton Kershaw for another year. And still have like $30-40 million to play with.

The Dodgers took it pretty easy in free agency last year, not signing a single player to a multi-year deal. But that wasn't some sudden foundational shift in roster-building philosophy. It was the calm before the storm, knowing they'd be investing heavily in this year's class of free agents.

We'll see who all they end up getting, but don't bother squinting too much at the current roster to try to figure out what the Dodgers will look like in March. They're going to be busy for these next few months.

Other Big Unknowns

• Is San Diego really committed to getting below a $200 million payroll? Committed enough to trade away Juan Soto?
• After whiffing on their big swings last offseason, could the Giants outbid the Dodgers for Ohtani? And/or land a co-ace for Logan Webb?
• If Arizona made the World Series ahead of schedule, can it repeat on schedule in 2024?

Projected 2024 NL Central Standings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (97-65)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73; wild card)
3. San Diego Padres (88-74; wild card)
4. San Francisco Giants (82-80)
5. Colorado Rockies (54-108)

Wild Card Series

NL1: No. 3 Chicago Cubs over No. 6 San Diego Padres
NL2: No. 4 Philadelphia Phillies over No. 5 Arizona Diamondbacks

AL1: No. 6 Texas Rangers over No. 3 Minnesota Twins
AL2: No. 5 Houston Astros over No. 4 Tampa Bay Rays

Division Series

NL1: No. 1 Atlanta Braves over No. 4 Philadelphia Phillies (third time's the charm for Atlanta)
NL2: No. 3 Chicago Cubs over No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers (third time's not the charm for LA)

AL1: No. 1 Baltimore Orioles over No. 5 Houston Astros (Houston's ALCS streak finally ends)
AL2: No. 2 Seattle Mariners over No. 6 Texas Rangers (Seattle's ALCS streak finally begins)

Championship Series

NL: No. 1 Atlanta Braves over No. 3 Chicago Cubs
AL: No. 2 Seattle Mariners over No. 1 Baltimore Orioles

2024 World Series

No. 1 Atlanta Braves over No. 2 Seattle Mariners