Updated MLB World Series 2024 Odds For Every Team

Spring training is barely underway, but the 2024 World Series will be here before you know it.

And while there are a few marquee free agents still out there who could shift the lines a bit when they sign their long-awaited contracts, let's take a look at updated World Series odds with the offseason almost complete.

Perhaps most notable is that both of those algorithms have the Cardinals winning the NL Central by multiple games, but the Cubs have that division's best World Series odds. Also notable is that both projections have Baltimore winning 85-86 games with minimal hope of winning the World Series, but the O's have the fifth-best WS odds at +1200.

We'll go division by division through the majors, noting each team's current World Series odds with some thoughts on why each line is where it is.

Odds current as of Monday morning.

New York Yankees (+1000)
Baltimore Orioles (+1200)
Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
Tampa Bay Rays (+3500)
Boston Red Sox (+5000)

Every other division has at least one team at +15000 or worse with just no hope whatsoever of winning a World Series this year. But even the supposed-to-finish-in-last-place Red Sox will enter Opening Day with a viable postseason pulse—especially if they loosen the purse strings and go get one of the big free agents still available. (Jordan Montgomery perhaps?)

Tampa Bay is intriguing at +3500, if only because the Rays are perennially undervalued in the preseason. They did trade away Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot and Luke Raley, and their catcher situation remains a gigantic question mark. But they should be solid, as always, particularly if Shane Baz can legitimately contribute in the rotation and/or if highly touted prospect Junior Caminero locks down the shortstop gig in the presumed continued absence of Wander Franco.

Toronto feels a bit stuck in no-man's land in the aftermath of the Shohei Ohtani flight tracker fiasco. The Blue Jays lost a lot to free agency and didn't add much beyond Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Maybe it pans out and they improve, but it sure doesn't seem like the No. 6 seed in last year's AL bracket got any better this offseason.

(If you have Toronto behind Tampa Bay in your preseason AL East projections, you aren't alone. FanGraphs has the Rays down for two more wins in 2024 than the Blue Jays.)

Should be a fascinating battle between the Orioles and the Yankees for this divisional crown, though.

The Orioles won 101 games last season. They signed Craig Kimbrel in hopes of replacing Felix Bautista as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. And, more importantly, they traded for Corbin Burnes, giving them an established ace for the first time since, what, Erik Bedard in the mid-2000s? Mike Mussina in the late-1990s if you don't count Bedard? Either way, it's been a minute.

It's a good thing they added Burnes, though, because both Kyle Bradish (UCL) and John Means (elbow) might not be available to start the season. If both of those starters are out indefinitely, it more clearly looks like the Yankees' division to lose.

Of course, New York isn't without its own question marks in the rotation. Gerrit Cole is as elite as it gets, but which versions of Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Rodón will they get? If those three perform anywhere close to their ceilings, the addition of Juan Soto to the lineup should take care of the rest.

Minnesota Twins (+2000)
Detroit Tigers (+6000)
Cleveland Guardians (+7000)
Kansas City Royals (+13000)
Chicago White Sox (+25000)

As far as the 2024 World Series goes, the only thing about the Chicago White Sox worth keeping an eye on is if, when and where they trade Dylan Cease to an actual contender. It's plausible Eloy Jiménez could be on the trade block, too, but Cease is the big one with two seasons left before hitting free agency.

Kansas City's odds aren't great, but you know what? Neither were Arizona's odds at this time last year. The Royals—signing Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith and more—have been as active this offseason as any team aside from the free-spending Dodgers and the trade-happy Braves. It's probably not enough for a 106-loss team to become a serious threat to the Yankees or Astros atop the AL hierarchy. But would it blow your mind if they won the AL Central?

After finishing 10 games below .500 in 2023, Cleveland did a lot of nothing this offseason, opting to pin its hopes and dreams on what will probably be the youngest roster in the majors. We'll see how a full season of Bo Naylor and Brayan Rocchio in the lineup and the second season of Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee in the starting rotation pans out, but tied with the Miami Marlins at +7000 feels fair here.

Detroit is the team most likely to keep Minnesota from repeating as division champs. The Tigers lost Eduardo Rodriguez to Arizona, but they've added a lot in his place and will be in business if rookie Colt Keith and former highly-touted Casey Mize make major contributions. They might also have enough room left in the budget for one more big splash, but we'll see about that.

It makes sense for the Twins to be the favorite here, but they look a lot different from last year, and not in a good way.

Gone are Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Jorge Polanco, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor and several other key contributors on last year's 87-win team, and they haven't added much to replace them. Getting Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani in the Polanco trade could pan out, but the only free agents they've signed are almost-38-year-old Carlos Santana and a reliever who had a 6.00-plus ERA over the past two seasons with Kansas City (Josh Staumont).

The Twins were stuck between a rock and a broke place as they waited to find out what would come of the Regional Sports Networks contracts, but recognizing why they couldn't spend to improve doesn't change the fact that they didn't spend to improve. And if they slip to .500 or worse, the AL Central will be w-i-d-e open in 2024.

Houston Astros (+800)
Texas Rangers (+1400)
Seattle Mariners (+2000)
Los Angeles Angels (+15000)
Oakland Athletics (+40000)

For the second successive year, the only interesting thing about the Oakland A's is getting more information about whether they'll remain in Oakland. The rebuilding of that roster is nowhere near complete.

The Angels' odds wouldn't be this high if they played in the AL Central, but making the playoffs from this division is going to be mighty difficult. They couldn't pull it off once with Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and doing so without him will only be that much more difficult. They did sign six relief pitchers in free agency, though, if you're into that kind of thing.

As far as the AL West's contenders go, Seattle is one heck of a third-best candidate.

The Mariners made a ton of trades this offseason, though it remains to be seen if they actually won any of them. But getting Jorge Polanco to play second, trading for Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley and signing Mitch Garver might be a cumulative step in a positive direction. The corner-outfield spots are more questionable than they were a year ago, but they should have a great starting rotation once again and they certainly have options for filling out their lineup on a nightly basis.

The reigning World Series champion Rangers are going to be absolutely loaded on offense and will likely add top prospect Wyatt Langford to that mix before much longer. They also added David Robertson and Kirby Yates in hopes of sprucing up what was a questionable bullpen last year. The only real question is the health of the starting rotation for the first half of the regular season, but they could be scary good if they get healthy around the All-Star Break and are still in a good spot to make the playoffs.

But after seven consecutive trips to the ALCS, Houston is understandably the front-runner. Not only are the Astros the favorite to win the AL West, but they have the lowest World Series odds of any American League team.

They didn't make many moves this offseason, but signing Josh Hader was massive. We'll see how Houston decides to handle save situations with Ryan Pressly also still in the mix, but that is going to be the best back-of-the-bullpen one-two punch in the majors.

Like Texas, though, Houston has some rotation health concerns. Luis Garcia is recovering from Tommy John surgery and presumably won't be available until at least July. Lance McCullers Jr. also has an ill-defined target return timeframe of "over the summer." And now both Justin Verlander and J.P. France reported to spring training with shoulder issues, though there's no immediate indication either will miss Opening Day.

Who wins this division might just boil down to whose rotation can get and stay healthy. In which case, maybe Seattle's line is too low?

Atlanta Braves (+450)
Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
New York Mets (+4500)
Miami Marlins (+7000)
Washington Nationals (+20000)

We shall see what actually happens, but the NL East is the division that is least up for debate from top-to-bottom, starting with the Nationals as the clear choice to finish in the basement.

The Nats do have something building. They've got a few foundational pieces already in the majors and several sensational prospects in the pipeline. If you had to place a bet today on which of the Nationals, A's, Rockies or White Sox will win the most games in 2025, Washington is the obvious pick. But this team is likely at least another year away from legitimately competing for a playoff spot again.

The Marlins should finish ahead of the Nationals, but no higher. They were outscored by 57 runs last season, lost their ace (Sandy Alcantara) to Tommy John surgery, lost their best slugger (Jorge Soler) to free agency and have yet to sign a single free agent to an MLB deal. The big question is whether they hang onto Jesús Luzardo or trade him and his three years of team control for a serious haul of prospects.

Six months ago, it looked like the Mets were punting on 2024, but it's clear at this point—after signing three free agents to eight-figure salaries and trading for Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor—that they're at least going to try to win some games. The problem is that aside from Kodai Senga, their rotation is just one wild card after another. Two of the three outfield spots are also questionable, which makes it hard to see them keeping pace with the Phillies or Braves.

After re-signing Aaron Nola, the Phillies are basically running it back again with what has gotten them to back-to-back NLCS—but also to back-to-back years finishing 14 games behind Atlanta in the NL East standings. The big question mark here is at closer. They have a lot of viable options, but perhaps no great ones. Plenty of offense, though, and a solid rotation. They can always trade for a closer at the deadline.

Atlanta remains the NL East's team to beat, though, and even more so with the additions of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Aaron Bummer and Jarred Kelenic. It's really just a question of whether the Braves or Dodgers should open the season as the favorite to win the World Series. DraftKings has Los Angeles slightly ahead, but Atlanta is a strong No. 2, deservedly well ahead of the best the American League has to offer.

Chicago Cubs (+2800)
St. Louis Cardinals (+3500)
Cincinnati Reds (+4500)
Milwaukee Brewers (+9000)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+15000)

Pittsburgh has made a handful of intriguing moves this offseason, most recently taking a flyer on Yasmani Grandal. It wouldn't be a major stunner if the Pirates finished top-three in the NL Central for what would be the first time since 2016. But this might even be a generous line for a franchise that hasn't won a multi-game postseason series since the 1979 World Series.

Milwaukee going straight from winning the NL Central to projected to finish in a distant fourth place pretty well sums up the state of the Brewers after they traded away Corbin Burnes, Mark Canha, Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor and non-tendered Brandon Woodruff and Rowdy Tellez. The decision to sign Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million deal while otherwise blowing things up was...strange. But they could always trade him for prospects if he makes a successful return from the torn ACL.

The Reds are +4500 to win the World Series, but they're a very real threat to win the NL Central if the pitching acquisitions—Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas, Emilio Pagan and Brent Suter—pan out at all. Would still love to see them trade one of their surplus of infielders for another arm, but this is the team with the worst WS odds who actually feels like a reasonable candidate to pull it off.

St. Louis should be back with a vengeance after an atypically poor 2023 campaign. The Cardinals signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Keynan Middleton and also traded for a few other bullpen arms to address their pitching woes. Lynn and Gibson are far from sure things to actually improve the rotation, then again, it can't be much worse than what they had toward the end of last season.

The Cubs are DraftKings' favorite in the NL Central, but barely. And that's because they've barely done anything this offseason aside from replace Marcus Stroman with Shōta Imanaga. Hector Neris was a nice one-year pickup, and trading for Michael Busch could be a great long-term move. But is Chicago going to make one more big move before Opening Day? If not, this is going to be quite the three-horse race for the NL's No. 3 seed.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+350)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+3500)
San Francisco Giants (+5500)
San Diego Padres (+6000)
Colorado Rockies (+40000)

The Rockies have the same odds as the Oakland A's, but with a payroll nearly three times as high. What a mess. Feels like they are going to be in the basement of the NL West for at least the next half-decade.

San Diego set out to cut costs this offseason, and it certainly succeeded in that regard. The Padres' payroll is only slighter higher than Colorado's and slightly below the MLB average, one year removed from spending over $250 million for 82 wins. (A better $/win ratio than either New York team, at least.) Did they trim too much salary to even put up a fight, though? They need to add another starting pitcher and another outfielder before they can be taken seriously for a wild-card spot.

Similar story for the Giants, though they at least appear to be trying to build a contender, even if they are doing so in a budget-conscious way. The big question for San Francisco is the Jordan Hicks signing. If he can successfully make the transition from bullpen to the starting rotation, they might be solid. Don't forget, they should be getting Robbie Ray back from Tommy John surgery at some point in the second half of the season.

The Diamondbacks have definitely improved since reaching the World Series last October, adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation, trading for Eugenio Suárez and signing both Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk to one-year deals. This +3500 line is a product of the Dodgers being such a heavy favorite to win the NL West. The Snakes should be better than the Cardinals who are also at +3500, but the Cardinals have much better odds to win their division.

And then there's Los Angeles, whose stockpile of star power has gotten out of control. Atlanta could/should be just as good this season, but the Dodgers—after adding Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández and more—would be the much bigger disappointment if it doesn't reach the World Series. This team could be historically great, and the World Series odds reflect that.