Wednesday wagers: Conquist can conquer foes at Saratoga

There’s a good deal of variety in Wednesday’s week 3 opener at Saratoga, with a steeplechase event and the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. There also are turf sprints, including one for juveniles, a turf mini-marathon and a pair of one-lap heats on dirt.

Here are my five favorites plays on the day.

Best bet: Conquist (race 10)

Best value bet: Outlaw Kid (race 7)

Race 1

No. 3 Hoffman (9-5, morning-line favorite) crossed the wire first in a minor stake when last seen by daylight, but was DQ’d for going off course at one point. The rest are running for second if he can replicate that feat, but aside from his maiden win two back, the resume isn’t overwhelming. No. 1A L’Imperator (2-1) looks like the stronger part of the entry consisting of him and No. 1 Modus Operandi. The former graded-stakes winner on the flats looked good in a maiden victory two back before disputing the pace and tiring late in the Belmont Gold Cup last time out. No. 5 Gold (12-1) won in gate-to-wire fashion in just his second stateside jump try before hitting the shelf. He may need one, but could hit the exacta with a good setup.

How I’d bet it (based on a $100 budget): $8 exacta box 1/3, $2 exacta 1,3/5

Race 5

No. 1 Quality G (7-2) was twice stakes-placed before going on a long vacation. The return race last month left plenty to be desired, but perhaps the class drop will wake him up with the rust shaken off. No. 10 Billy’s Got Issues (8-1) showed dramatic improvement with added distance in his last turf effort. He’ll be tested for class but could relish going a route of ground today. No. 9 St. Joe Louis (3-1, morning-line favorite) placed second in five of six starts last year, going off the favorite four times in that span. Tough to endorse on top, but he’s working well for his return for Chad Brown (24 percent at the meet, 34percent off 180-plus-day layoffs).

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/9/10, $3 exacta 1/9,10, $2 win 10

Race 6

No. 7 Athena Beach (5-2) is 4-for-4 lifetime, with all four of her victories coming at Penn National. If she carries even 90 percent of her form over in her first start against state-breds, she should take this heat. No. 1 Ichiban (2-1, morning-line favorite) looked strong in victory on opening weekend at Saratoga and is a threat wheeling back while stepping up for Linda Rice (32 percent). No. 5 Big Hazel (7-2) beat Ichiban in a maiden heat when last seen, consider.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/5/7, $2 exacta key box 7/1,5

Race 7

No. 9 Outlaw Kid (4-1) won three of four turf sprint tries before being burned up in a speed duel in a Grade 2 at Woodbine. This is a softer spot, and Javier Castellano regains the mount. No. 2 Our Shot (7-2) won a turf dash at Keeneland two-back before settling for second in a minor stake at Monmouth. Luis Saez has the call on this logical alternative. No. 1 Bring Me a Check (12-1) steps up and scales back, but he has won two straight and the price is fair.

How I’d bet it: $2 exacta box 1/2/9, $3 exacta 9/1,2, $2 win 1

Race 10

No. 8 Conquist (9-2) nearly wired a similar group at Belmont when last seen and doesn’t face much legitimate pace pressure on paper. Saez should fit this horse like a glove. No. 11 Your Mission (4-1) has faltered in five straight as a favorite but has the speed figures to compete. No. 9 Wayward Ghost (10-1) finished with plenty of late interest going shorter on debut.

How I’d bet it: $10 exacta 8/11, $6 exacta 8/9, $4 exacta 11/8

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper based in New York.