Week 16 NFL Milestone Bets
While Darius Slayton can be hit or miss, he'll have all the advantages he'll need for a big game on Monday night, including a weak Philly secondary and a pass-heavy game script. Read more in our NFL Milestone picks for Week 16.
Milestone and Alt Overs are a great way to find big plus-money plays. bet365 has Milestone markets for basically every prop so bettors can look into different markets other than the standard yardage props.
On this Christmas edition of Milestones, my free NFL picks are looking at three separate pass-catchers and hitting a rainbow of yardage from 25 to 50 to 75 yards.
I’m looking for some garbage-time production in some but think all three players are being undervalued in their individual spots. Merry Christmas and here are my Week 16 best Milestone bets.
Week 16 milestone picks
Picks made on December 23 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 16 milestone bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver David Moore had the game-sealing touchdown last week late in the fourth quarter — a 52-yard score. His usage is on the rise as he's cutting into Trey Palmer’s snaps/routes.
Last week, Palmer didn’t see more than a 55% snap share in either half as Moore is getting mixed in more often. He was added to the active roster last week following the team hitting their maximum three practice squad elevations, so he's here to stay.
He's gaining trust with Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay passing game has a great matchup vs. the 30th-ranked pass defense since Week 10 that could be without two starters in the secondary.
This is an offense that runs 3-WR sets at 73%, struggles to run the ball, and is giving Moore more looks. Now let’s get to the best part.
Moore’s receiving total is a whopping 8.5 yards. That's making his 25-yard Milestone a solid +310 which is worth a full unit in this spot. If Moore continues to get more snaps, this 25+ total could be done early.
David Moore prop: 25-plus receiving yards (+310 at bet365)
Sometimes bettors don’t incorporate garbage time possibilities enough when looking at prop Overs. The New York Giants enter this week as the biggest dog at +13.5 and are projected to have a heavy passing game which could see a near-100% pass rate late.
Tommy DeVito’s passing attempts have moved from 27.5 to 28.5 and THE BLITZ is projecting over 32 passes from the underdog. That’s a decent amount of balls for a receiving corps that continues to have low totals despite a high chance of garbage-time yards.
Darius Slayton’s receiving total is sitting at 27.5 yards which is shorter than two other New York pass catchers. This is a receiver who led the team in route share (91%) targets (8), and air yards (97) last week.
He’s hit the 50-yard mark in half of DeVito’s starts and gets to face a defense that allows the most completions per game at 25.6 per match.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary is also going to be without starting corner Darius Slay which is a bump for the New York receivers. DeVito also takes a ton of sacks so there's big yardage to gain on the majority of his dropbacks.
Slayton could get 50 yards alone in the second half with the Giants likely trailing and if New York moves to Tyrod Taylor, I’m still OK with this as there isn’t a downgrade from DeVito to Taylor. It’s a one-unit play.
Darius Slayton prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+300 at bet365)
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride is a bad man. I was on his TD last week at good plus money but he failed to find the end zone despite a 10-catch, 102-yard performance vs. the Browns.
He has an insane 32% target share over the last three games and faces the Chicago Bears’ pass-funnel defense this week as a 4-point dog which could mean more late action with a negative game script.
Chicago's rush defense has been stout of late which is why this opponents have a 67.4% pass rate vs. the Bears over the last three weeks, which is the highest rate in football. This is also a defense that allows the fourth-most completions per game at 24.7.
The final thing that's making this a great play this week is that Marquise Brown has been ruled out so there are more targets to go around.
Brown has exited early in the Cards’ last two games and McBride has totaled 18 catches (20 targets) for 191 yards and a score. A big-volume day is coming again for the emerging TE.
You can take his 100 yards for +475, but I’m not getting greedy and taking the 75+ at +170 for a full unit.
Trey McBride prop: 75-plus receiving yards (+170 at bet365)
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