Week 2 preview: Illinois result could alter trajectory of KU’s season

Kansas head coach Lance Leipold leads his team onto the field before an NCAA college football game against Missouri State Friday, Sept. 1, 2023, in Lawrence, Kan.

Illinois coach Bret Bielema knows how much Friday’s game means to his opponent.

As he put it in a press conference Tuesday, “Kansas has targeted this game for a long time.”

“You know, when we agreed to move this game to Friday, they moved their (Missouri State) game to Friday so it’s not as big a break or they didn’t gain two days of advantage,” he said in a press conference Tuesday “… I know they got new jerseys from 1941 that they’re going to debut, so there’s a lot of thought that has gone into this game, and I think that’s awesome, I think that’s what college football is all about.”

But the longtime head coach at Wisconsin and Arkansas suggested that the Illini are prepared to enter a hostile environment, prime-time slot, ESPN2 broadcast, new black KU jerseys (on which, really, only the helmet logo is from 1941) and all. After all, they beat Penn State at Beaver Stadium in Bielema’s first year, and have continued their upward trajectory since then with an 8-5 season in 2022.

“Our guys in particular with the attitude that we preach, the mentality of being an underdog with an chip on your shoulder, this actually plays into our (approach),” he said, “and I’ve been told too that we are the underdog, so I think there’s a lot of different things that we can play to that we really embrace.”

KU overcame a slow start against Missouri State for a dominant 48-17 win Friday; Illinois stumbled even more out of the gate Saturday against a tough Toledo team but used a Caleb Griffin game-winning field goal to escape with a win. The Fighting Illini defense, which gave up 12.8 points per game in 2022 (the best mark in the nation), allowed 28 points to the Rockets; however, their offense, and its new quarterback Luke Altmyer, an Ole Miss transfer, made some gutsy throws down the stretch.

“He was better than I thought he was going to be, just based on, maybe, the past,” KU defensive coordinator Brian Borland said.

Both teams will need to elevate their performance dramatically to earn a favorable result Friday.

“The excitement is definitely around this week, but we’re just going to keep game-planning like every week and get ready for Illinois,” said cornerback Kwinton Lassiter, who got his first career interception against Missouri State.

A win for KU could send the Jayhawks on a similar trajectory to last season’s breakout 5-0 start; a home loss, especially with all the scrutiny and expectations, could prompt some reevaluation ahead of a winnable road date at Nevada.

Kansas Jayhawks (1-0, 0-0 Big 12) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0, 0-0 Big Ten)

• David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, 6:30 p.m.

• Broadcast: ESPN2

• Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network (in Lawrence, KLWN AM 1320 / K269GB FM 101.7 / KKSW FM 105.9)

• Betting line: KU -3.0; over/under 57.5

• Series history: Illinois leads 3-2

What to watch for

1. Receiver reserves: One of the deepest positions on KU’s roster has become a bit shallower in the early going. Starting slot receiver Luke Grimm caught Jason Bean’s first touchdown pass of the season last week but left the game soon after with an unspecified injury, while backup outside wideout Tanaka Scott did not dress for the game due to a hurt hamstring. Leipold described Scott as questionable and Grimm as “wait and see.” If Grimm can’t go, onetime Minnesota transfer Doug Emilien, who has just two career receptions in three collegiate seasons, would be in line to start and make an impression. Trevor Wilson, who already had an acrobatic catch against Missouri State, and freshman Keaton Kubecka have gotten more reps in Scott’s absence.

2. Converted players: KU is very familiar with moving players from one position to another — that’s practically constituted Torry Locklin’s whole existence while in the program — but Illinois has a couple of converts playing key roles this year, two of whom Leipold mentioned by name as players to watch Monday. Playmaking wide receiver Isaiah Williams is a former quarterback, while defensive back Miles Scott, a receiver as a freshman, ran back a game-changing interception for a defensive touchdown against Toledo.

3. A long-awaited (or dreaded) debut: KU’s offense was effective enough last week that it ended each of its 12 drives with something other than a punt (six touchdowns, two field goals, two ends of halves, a fumble and a turnover on downs). The result was that Damon Greaves, a 23-year-old freshman from Australia’s Prokick academy, did not make his first appearance as a Jayhawk. “If there’s one guy you don’t want to play, that’s your punter, and he didn’t get to play tonight,” Leipold said afterward. It would be a miracle for KU to get through another game without having to deploy Greaves, and chances are he’ll see the field for the first time Friday. He’ll be facing off against a fellow Prokick product in Illinois punter Hugh Robertson, 30, the third-oldest player in college football.

Spotlight on…

Jalon Daniels: Leipold’s remark Monday that Daniels had taken, in that day’s practice, “by far the most team reps that he’s had since the first week” was the most optimistic news to come out of KU’s camp about the starting quarterback’s ongoing back injury in a while, especially when taken together with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s reiteration that he took “a lot of reps” the following day, and the reports from Action Network’s Brett McMurphy on Sunday and ESPN’s Pete Thamel on Thursday that Daniels is “expected to play” (if not necessarily start). Of course, Leipold’s press conference last week, in which he referred to the fresh depth chart that had Daniels first, mentioned Daniels practiced, and said the Jayhawks would use everyone available, was just as indicative of a prospective Daniels start then. If the junior star does make his season debut this week, he’ll need to get acclimated quickly and attack a potentially vulnerable Illinois secondary that lost three players to the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.

Inside the numbers

131: The number of years since Illinois and Kansas last faced off in Lawrence. KU won 26-4 — how often does one see a 4-point score this century, outside of the 2004 Iowa-Penn State barn-burner? — in its third year of existence as a college football program.

78.6: Jason Bean’s completion percentage against Missouri State, his highest single-game mark (in an appearance with more than one attempt) since North Texas faced SMU on Sept. 7, 2019.

0.1: Altmyer’s per-carry average on 25 career rushes at Ole Miss (for 3 yards) before he transferred to Illinois and had nine rushes for 69 yards in his debut against Toledo; KU will need to close the rushing lanes it left open for Missouri State quarterback Jacob Clark last week.

Prediction

KU wins 21-20. This game has felt like a toss-up ever since KU released its schedule. Once again, expect the Jayhawks to take some time to adapt to Illinois’ physical playstyle and, generally, the pressure of a prime-time matchup against a Big Ten Conference foe. Altmyer and running back Reggie Love III should rip off some big runs against the still-suspect KU defense, and the Jayhawks’ well-rounded backfield could struggle to find similar space. But KU will instead create openings out wide and up the seam for critical deep passes to swing the result in their favor. This one should come down to the final drive.