What is OKC Thunder's best-case scenario for 2023-24 NBA season?

The Thunder’s over/under win total this season is 44.5, according to FanDuel. 

If you want to get crazy, the Thunder is +4200 to win the West, meaning a $10 bet would pay $420. 

OK, that’s probably not going to happen, but what is the best case scenario for the Thunder this season?

That’s the first question in today’s Thunder mailbag. 

@shakethedealer: What is the best case scenario for the Thunder this season? What are some realistic trade scenarios that the Thunder might explore?

The best-case scenario is a top-six seed, meaning the Thunder bypasses the play-in tournament to clinch its first playoff appearance since the 2019-20 season. 

The Thunder (40-42) finished four games behind the No. 6 seed Warriors (44-38) last season. But 44 wins might not be enough this year, in what’s expected to be a tougher Western Conference. For example, Denver won 48 games as the No. 6 seed in 2021-22. 

As for realistic trade scenarios, it’s far too early to even know what’s realistic. I don’t expect the Thunder to make a splash, though. Look for more moves around the margins. 

@KentnNicholson: Is Victor Oladipo healthy? What would we do with him? Is it a buy-out, or release or what?

Oladipo underwent surgery in April to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee. There’s no timetable for the 31-year-old former All-Star to return. And given Oladipo’s extensive injury history, it’s no guarantee if he’ll ever return to NBA action. In the last four seasons, Oladipo has averaged 25.5 games played per season. 

The Thunder acquired Oladipo from the Heat this offseason in exchange for two second-round picks. It was a salary dump for Miami, and it’s unclear if Oladipo, who played for the Thunder in the 2016-17 season, will report to OKC at any point. 

Oladipo’s expiring $9.5 million contract is the reason he’s still on the roster, and having that trade-friendly number on the books is the main reason to keep him around. 

I think Oladipo will be waived by the start of the regular season if no deal arises. That seems more palatable than rostering Oladipo at the expense of losing a younger player. 

@Andrewbooboo2: If you offered Aleksej Pokusevski an extension before the season, what would you consider a fair contract?

I wouldn’t offer Poku an extension, and I don’t see the Thunder doing it, either. 

But say the Thunder is set on extending him. Maybe something like three years for $24 million? Even that seems high. 

Poku is still 21, but he’s been oft-injured and too inconsistent. What would his market be in free agency? I doubt it’s robust. 

Bol Bol just signed a one-year, $2.2 million contract with Phoenix. Does Bol Bol or Poku have more untapped potential? It’s close, and that’s the point. 

@hollybailey25: What are the odds that the arena doesn’t get approved? What are the chances the Thunder leaves OKC if the new arena isn’t voted through?

I’ll give the arena vote an 80% chance of passing. I have to imagine the city did polling before putting this plan together. If the vote fails, I think there will be another vote on another plan and so on and so forth. Even if it fails, I think there’s less than a 10% chance the Thunder leaves in the next decade. 

Relocating a team is hard, and an all-Oklahoman ownership group is not going to be motivated to move the team. No owner, not even Thunder chairman Clay Bennett, owns more than a 19% share of the team, which would further complicate a move. 

Here’s the worst-case scenario for Thunder fans: The vote fails and ownership sells a majority stake to an outsider. That’s when other cities would circle like sharks. 

@JohnSa1962: Outside of the regular starters, are there any other players who will be immune to the “Did not play” (DNP) coaches decision fate this season?

Fun question. 

First the expected starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren. If those guys are healthy, they’re playing. 

Jaylin Williams, given the Thunder’s lack of centers, should have a regular role. And I wouldn’t expect a healthy Kenrich Williams or Isaiah Joe to get tagged with a DNP, but who knows? Mark Daigneault is a mad man. 

No one, especially outside of those eight, is immune from a DNP. Not Vasilije Micic, not Cason Wallace, not Ousmane Dieng. And not Aaron Wiggins — which we know all too well.