What we learned: Tapit Trice's slow breaks are a concern

Despite leaving himself with several lengths to make up late, Tapit Trice won the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in a dramatic fashion. He likely did not win by as many lengths as expected for a heavy favorite. Nevertheless, Tapit Trice put his gears together and caught the leader Classic Car Wash on his way to a two-length margin victory at the wire.  

In terms of the Kentucky Derby, Tapit Trice’s slow-breaking habit might be a concern. This is not a situation where a horse breaks slow one time and starts normally otherwise in other races. Including his bad start in the Tampa Bay Derby, Tapit Trice has broken slowly three times in a row now.

To Tapit Trice's credit, he fixed the poor early position in the Tampa Bay Derby by moving his way up on the backside to a better spot while passing a couple of horses.

The pacesetter Dreaming of Kona set lively fractions of 23.63 and 46.96 seconds while under pressure from Zydeceaux. After the half-mile, jockey Luis Saez opted to guide Tapit Trice outside to set up his expected run.

But on the far turn, Tapit Trice still had plenty of lengths to make up from his wide position. Saez rode him hard and took out the crop in an effort to encourage the rally. For a brief moment, it looked like he could lose.

But Tapit Trice finally began to warm up in the early part of the stretch and made up the necessary ground in a hurry. As Tapit Trice made his way to the front in a flash late, chalk players who took him at 2-5 breathed a sigh of relief that the unproven favorite backed up their confidence in him.

Can Tapit Trice run like this in the Kentucky Derby in a 20-horse field? The race is not normal. It requires horses to break well out of the gate and establish a good position that minimizes the chances of heavy traffic. If Tapit Trice does not fix the break problem, he will start the Derby in 20th.

Sure, deep closers such as Mine That Bird, Orb and Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby in the last 15 years. The latter two runners benefited from vicious fractions and a pace collapse, and Mine That Bird had good luck on his side while cutting through the field like butter on the far turn.

Mine That Bird also moved in a nimble manner with the ability to weave in and out flawlessly as a small horse. In contrast, Tapit Trice took forever to find his best stride in the Tampa Bay Derby. Once Tapit Trice started to finally move, he enjoyed a clear path ahead on his way to prevailing late.

Tapit Trice gives the impression of a colt who needs to build momentum in the clear to give his best shot. What if he finds himself stuck on the inside of the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field while receiving constant bumps?

Beyond the Kentucky Derby, Tapit Trice has a bright future in Grade 1 races. His slow-breaking habit will not stop him from winning in normal-sized fields as long as he can fix the position around the first turn.

But for now, Tapit Trice has a style that feels contrary to winning the race that everyone wants to focus on at Churchill Downs in May.

In terms of speed figures, Tapit Trice probably will earn figures that do not matter when analyzing him because he will always just do enough to get the job done. Speed figures cannot accurately measure the ability of a unique closer such as Tapit Trice. They can only measure the final time in relation to par.  

For those interested anyway, Tapit Trice completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.37, which earned him an 88 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. He is capable of better Beyer numbers. But it is unclear how much faster Tapit Trice can run until he finds himself in a race with better horses up front, such as Forte.

Classic Car Wash ran second and might end up as one of those long-shot bombs bettors can throw into the bottom of their superfectas if he competes in the Kentucky Derby. But he does not seem fast enough to win against the best horses. The same applies to the third-place Classic Legacy.

Tapit Trice will fare well in his final Derby prep race and might find his closing style a winning one in future races. When it comes to analyzing his chances in the Kentucky Derby, though, there are warning flags.