Kentucky Derby prep trends: Tampa Bay Derby is hard to read

It is more difficult finding a consistent winning style forthe Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby than it is for any other points prep forKentucky Derby 2023.

Where the history of other races have revealed clearpatterns, Saturday’s 43rd running at Tampa Bay Downs might as well be a game ofrock paper scissors.

As the odds-on favorite last year, Classic Causeway led the10-horse field from gate to wire on his way to a 2 1/2-length victory. In 2021,15-1 Helium closed from 10th to first. In 2020, King Guillermo carried 49-1 oddson a stalking trip to victory.

And on it went going back in time for the 1 1/16-mile race, which had been won by four consecutive long shots before last March.

Curated from Equibase, these were the past-performance linesof all the Tampa Bay Derby winners since 2000:

Of the 10 horses described by the Tampa Bay Downs racingoffice as probable starters Saturday, seven showed early speed in their pastraces, including Sam F. Davis (G3) finishers Groveland, second last month;Classic Car Wash, third; Classic Legacy, fourth; Zydeceaux, fifth; and PrairieHawk, ninth.

With his tactical versatility, likely favorite Tapit Triceflies in the face of those speed horses. The $1.3 million Tapit colt trained byTodd Pletcher conceded six places and 4 1/4 lengths before breaking his maidenin the slop Dec. 17 at Aqueduct. In an allowance race last out Feb. 4 atGulfstream Park, he was a close fourth before he pounced on an honest earlypace to win by eight lengths and earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 92, according to DailyRacing Form.

The prism of history provides a clearer image of the TampaBay Derby’s influence on the Kentucky Derby. Since Super Saver parlayed histhird-place finish in Florida to an 8-1 score in 2010 at Churchill Downs, only Tacitushas hit the board in Louisville, where he was promoted from fourth to third in 2019.

These were the horses who started in both the Tampa Bay Derby and Kentucky Derby since 2000, according to Churchill Downs:

More glaring has been the overall record of recent Tampa BayDerby winners. King Guillermo, Helium and Classic Causeway have gone acollective 26: 1-4-8 since. The only victory was Classic Causeway’s 26-1 upset onthe turf last summer in the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1).

After Street Sense and Super Saver successfully used theTampa Bay Derby as a way station to their Kentucky Derby triumphs, the Floridarace was upgraded in 2011 to a Grade 2 stakes. Graduates since have gone only 19:0-0-1 in the Churchill Downs classic, no doubt contributing to this year’s demotionback to Grade 3.

In Las Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby 2023, Tapit Tricewas best-priced at 15-1. Only Forte at 4-1 and Arabian Knight at 9-1 carried shorterodds. This suggests if Tapit Trice were to pay off his futures backers, theTampa Bay Derby might find its way back to a higher class.