Who is the Blue Jays’ MVP this season? A rundown of the leading candidates
Even with just a series split against the Philadelphia Phillies, a strong 14-6 record in September has all but guaranteed the Blue Jays’ chances to make the postseason. They’re not there yet but their playoff odds, per FanGraphs, stand at 100 percent and they’ll look to clinch their spot within the next week or so.
With that in mind, and with the regular season coming to a close soon, it felt like an appropriate time to ponder who has been the Blue Jays’ most valuable player this season. Unlike last year, when the clear choice was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who finished second in overall American League MVP voting — this year there is not a clear-cut answer on the roster, but a few candidates stand out.
Leading candidates
Alek Manoah
There has been no sophomore slump to speak of with Alek Manoah. In fact, the 24-year-old right-hander has seemingly continued to get better with each of his outings, even as he blows past his previous innings limit load. He has a 2.40 ERA in 29 starts, which ranks fourth in the AL, and his 5.1 bWAR leads all Blue Jays. His 183 2/3 innings pitched trails only Houston Astros starter, Framber Valdez, for the most in the league as he’s become a clear workhorse for his team, a rarity among young pitchers in this age of the game.
The Blue Jays are 16-13 in games he starts this season. He’s led them to a winning record, despite only receiving 3.6 runs of support per game from his offence, on average. (By comparison, the Blue Jays are 22-7 in José Berríos starts, but he’s received 5.9 runs of support per start.)
Manoah’s numbers point to his special performance but there are intangible factors, too, that lead to his team MVP candidacy. Manoah can be trusted to shut down a division rival. He’s a fierce and feisty competitor who’s among the most entertaining pitchers to watch. He’ll grind on the mound on days when he doesn’t have his best stuff, be it because of a stomach bug or otherwise. And, more often than not, he finds a way to give you all he’s got, even when he’s not 100 percent. In all, Manoah has proven to be a pitcher a team wants on the mound when a game is must win.
Ross Stripling
Where would the Blue Jays be without Ross Stripling? Perhaps not knocking on the postseason’s door. Since Stripling took over for Hyun Jin Ryu in the rotation in early June, he has a 2.86 ERA, a 3.19 FIP and a 0.94 WHIP across 17 starts (91 1/3 IP). This season, while pitching more innings than he ever has and making more starts, Stripling has put up some of the best numbers of his career, including a 4.1 percent walk rate and a 0.88 home runs per nine rate, both career-high marks.
Stripling succeeds because of his wide array of pitches and his ability to command each and throw them in whatever quadrant of the zone against both lefties and righties. His best pitch has been an improved changeup. Opposing batters have hit .207 against it and it’s been his best swing-and-miss pitch.
He is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing five earned runs in four innings against the Phillies on Tuesday, but leading into that, he hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs in 16 straight starts. His run of success has established him as one of the pillars of the rotation and made him a candidate for a Wild Card Series start. While maybe his numbers aren’t as elite as Manoah’s, he has been valuable to the team’s success to this point, especially considering the lack of rotation depth. If Stripling hadn’t stepped up, it’s hard to imagine who would have.
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman is having a better season than he’s perhaps getting credit for. His 3.32 ERA in 29 starts ranks in the top 10 in the AL. But by some numbers — including FanGraphs’ version of WAR which uses stats like FIP — the 31-year-old has been among the most valuable pitchers this season.
His 5.5 fWAR leads all AL pitchers and trails only Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola. His 2.37 FIP is only bested by Rodon’s 2.27 and no qualified pitcher has a wider gap between his FIP and ERA than Gausman’s 0.95, meaning he’s had some bad luck, bad bounces and defensive mistakes behind him.
Because of that, Gausman hasn’t been as successful at keeping runs off the board as Manoah, but with his nasty fastball and splitter combo, he does a lot of things better than anyone in Toronto’s rotation namely striking guys out, preventing walks and not allowing a lot of home runs (Manoah is good at that, too). Gausman has the best strikeout rate of any of the starters, at 28.2 percent. That’s down from his 30 percent the last two seasons but still very good. He’s also posted the best walk rate of his career, 3.9 percent, the third-best mark in the majors. And Gausman has allowed only 14 home runs all season, half of which have come in his last four starts before Wednesday.
Gausman has been everything the Blue Jays hoped he would be when the club signed him to a five-year deal and, most often this year, the team has been in good hands when he’s on the mound.
Jordan Romano
Jordan Romano has become one of the most reliable closers in the majors this year, with his 34 saves trailing only Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase for most in the AL. (Although, he has recently blown back-to-back saves for the first time in his career). The Blue Jays have a very good 29-19 record in one-run games, in part because Romano has become so effective at getting the last three outs. In fact, no pitcher in baseball has pitched in more high leverage situations than Romano, who leads the majors with a 2.11 leverage index (gmLI) this year. His 19 one-run saves are a franchise record and lead MLB this year.
The 29-year-old has found success using both his four-seam fastball and slider nearly equally. His strikeouts aren’t as high as they were last year (26.9 percent in 2022 compared to 33.6 percent in 2021) but his walks are down and Romano has still been effective at keeping the ball in the park. He’s made 58 appearances and he’s maintained, if not improved, his effectiveness as the year has gone on, averaging 98 mph on his fastball in September, the hardest he’s thrown it all season long. On top of that, he’s proven capable of getting more than three outs on a number of occasions this season. While his workload isn’t as much as a starter, the toughest three outs to get are the last. Romano has made it look easy for much of this season, which has been a luxury for the Blue Jays.
Honourable mentions
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t matched his near MVP performance from 2021, but even in a down year, Guerrero has been among the Blue Jays’ most productive hitters, with a 136 wRC+. He still ranks in the top 10 in the AL in hits (165), RBI (88) and home runs (30). He’s also played in 148 games this season, missing just one game. His best is elite, but even when Guerrero is just very good, he’s a huge piece of the lineup and still has the talent to change the game with one swing.
Bo Bichette
Like Guerrero, for much of this season, Bo Bichette hadn’t replicated the sort of offensive numbers he put up last year. However, a hot September has boosted his overall numbers — 129 wRC+ — enough so that they look similar to last year’s. Even in his up-and-down season, he ranks second in hits (171) and doubles (41) in the AL. He’s made 147 starts, including 145 at shortstop, a demanding position. When it mattered most, he’s played his best and is a big reason why the Blue Jays have played their finest baseball of the season over the last month.
Alejandro Kirk
In May and June, Alejandro Kirk hit .344/.435/.605 with 21 extra-base hits in 184 plate appearances while striking out just 9.2 percent of the time. He’s slowed down since but there was a good amount of time this year where he was Toronto’s best hitter and even now, he remains the only Toronto player to walk more (11.5 percent) than he’s struck out (10.5 percent). He’s also carried a huge load defensively, playing in 128 games, including behind the plate for more than 600 innings.
Matt Chapman
Matt Chapman got off to a slow start offensively, often on the wrong end of some bad batted ball luck and a deadened ball. But he’s been a much more productive player in the second half with a 150 wRC+ and .877 OPS. There has been some streakiness to his play with some hot and cold stretches. But his 27 home runs are second on the team. He still strikes out more than 27 percent of the time, but that’s down from the 33.1 percent he averaged the last two seasons and he trails only Cavan Biggio and Kirk in walk rate (10 percent). His defence has been game-changing, too, even if the advanced metrics don’t grade him as well this season and he’s certainly helped some pitchers’ ERAs.
Of all the candidates listed, Manoah probably gets my vote because of the innings he’s pitched and his ability to consistently come up big when he’s needed. But share in the comments who your pick of team MVP is because I suspect there are a variety of opinions on this.
