Who To Start for Fantasy Baseball in Week 22 (2023)
Welcome RotoBallers to my fantasy baseball start/sit article for the week ahead, August 21 - August 27. This week's article will focus on Ezequiel Tovar, Royce Lewis, Kyle Bradish, Logan Allen, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Hunter Greene, and Hyun Jin Ryu.
Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-racking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare any two players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, or the current week.
The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Syncwill automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Hopefully, this series will help both daily fantasy managers end their weeks strong and also get them comfortable with routinely using the tool during the week to make tough roster decisions. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, August 21 - August 27!
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Strong Shortstop Replacements
Ezequiel Tovar vs. Royce Lewis (3B/SS)
Our first comparison is between two shortstop-eligible players who have played well and could be available for fantasy managers who are now missing a starting SS. Ezequiel Tovar has put together a decent rookie season, slashing .264/.300/.439 with 14 home runs, 56 RBI, and seven stolen bases. Royce Lewis has only managed 113 plate appearances due to injury but has slashed an impressive .340/.381/.491. Which of these players is a better rest-of-season pickup?
RotoBaller gives Sunday's matchup a toss-up. Lewis draws the better matchup; despite this, their overall projections are nearly identical. While Tovar will be playing in Coors Field, he will face an objectively tougher matchup. Lewis is projected for a higher OPS, which may help break the tie.
Looking ahead to Week 22, the Rockies will face a tough road trip with three games at the Rays and three at the Orioles. The Twins will draw only slightly better matchups with two games at the Brewers and four against the Rangers.
Lewis has played almost every game since returning from the injured list on August 15 and has a higher prospect pedigree than Tovar. Tovar currently has a secure role with the Rockies but will have the disservice of not playing in Coors Field all week. Lewis' upside and better lineup context seemingly make him the better pickup for next week and the rest of the season.
Favorable Matchup Streamers
Our next comparison is between two stream-worthy starters who draw favorable Sunday matchups. Kyle Bradish has enjoyed a great season, going 7-6 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate. Logan Allen has compiled nearly identical numbers with a 6-5 record, 3.33 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 22.9% strikeout rate. Which pitcher offers more fantasy upside over their next couple of starts?
Bradish receives a slight recommendation for Sunday. Both draw strong matchups, but Bradish does have a slightly better projection for strikeouts and a quality start. While his win projection is minimally better than Allen's, there is no denying that the O's offense is much stronger than the Guardians'.
Bradish will draw another favorable matchup in his next start at home against the Rockies. Allen will face a tougher matchup at the Blue Jays. In terms of potential wins, Bradish has a clear advantage in offense support. He has also pitched deeper into games than Allen, averaging almost 6 1/3 IP/GS in six second-half starts compared to a little under six IP/GS for Allen.
While both are strong Sunday starts, Bradish's better matchup the following week and slightly better performance lately gives him the edge as the play to start.
Slumping Sluggers
Juan Soto (OF) vs. Manny Machado (3B)
These two teammates are both top fantasy picks who have not hit like it lately. Juan Soto has hit for some power but not much else in August, slashing .203/.261/.438 with four HR. Manny Machado has provided even less, slashing .172/.290/.293. Every week matters now, so who has the better chance of turning things around quickly?
The Padres have Sunday off, but it is still worth including these two in this start/sit article given the high investment fantasy managers had to put in for both players.
Looking to next week, the Padres will face tough matchups with three games against the Marlins and three at the Brewers. This does not bode well for either in terms of breaking out of their slumps. However, Soto has consistently provided more power than Machado throughout the season. At this point, some production is better than none, giving the edge to Soto.
Recently-Returning Starters
Hunter Greene vs. Hyun Jin Ryu
Our final comparison is between two starters who have recently rejoined their teams from the injured list. Hunter Greene (hip) will be returning from the IL on Sunday to face the Blue Jays after being out since the middle of June. On the other side, Hyun Jin Ryu has made three starts to this point and has a solid 2.57 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with a 14.5% strikeout rate. With start/sit decisions magnified at this point in the season, who is the better bet?
RotoBaller gives Greene a strong recommendation for Sunday. Greene is given a much better projection for ERA and WHIP while also receiving a higher projection for innings pitched. I think this matchup will be closer than projected, particularly as this will be Greene's first start back. Ultimately, it seems like Ryu is the safer floor play while Greene is the higher-upside play.
Greene will be at the slumping Diamondbacks in his next start, while Ryu will face the middling Guardians. Greene has the clear upside overall, but this decision will likely be determined by how long/well he pitches in his first start back on Sunday. Ryu has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, but he has been a high-floor, effective starter throughout his career.
Like the decision for Sunday, I would lean Greene for fantasy managers who are chasing strikeouts in roto leagues or end up being behind in points leagues and would favor Ryu if they are in a more comfortable position.
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