Who will finish top four in Premier League 2023/24? Betting odds and predictions for Champions League places
The battle to finish in the top four places in the Premier League is often one of the most exciting parts of the season, as sides all across the country are desperate to gain access to the riches on offer in the Champions League.
With the nature of a 'big six' in the Premier League, there is always at least two big clubs who will miss out on the pot of gold, and in the case of last season, three of the big six — Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea — all failed to finish in the top four.
They will all have a point to prove in the 2023-24 season and will look to regain a coveted top-four place, whilst Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle United will all look to maintain their status as top dogs in the league.
Will the top four be dominated by the big guns once again? Or will we see a surprise qualifier for the Champions League by the end of May?
Odds to finish in top four in Premier League 2023/24
With Manchester City favourites to win a fourth straight Premier League title under Pep Guardiola, bookmakers are expecting a tight race for the other three spots in the top four.
As it stands, there is only predicted to be one change from last season's top four, with Liverpool replacing Newcastle United, as Arsenal are placed at 1.37 odds to once again finish in the top four, whilst the two Manchester sides sit at 1.07 and 1.73 respectively.
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Odds updated as of August 9
Premier League top four prediction 2023/24
- Top 4 Prediction: 1. Man City, 2. Arsenal, 3. Liverpool, 4. Man United
Man City are almost certain to finish in the top four, whilst Arsenal's impressive transfer business — including the arrivals of Declan Rice and Kai Havertz — mean they will also be competing for the title.
There is a good chance fans will see a collective of five clubs fighting for the remaining two spots in the top four, with Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea, Tottenham and Newcastle all eyeing Champions League qualification.
Liverpool had a strong end to last season that saw them almost finish in the top four, and they have overhauled their midfield with the exciting additions of Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai. However, they have also lost a great deal of experience and quality with the likes of captain Jordan Henderson, Fabinho and Roberto Firmino all departing the club.
Man United have replaced long serving goalkeeper David de Gea with Cameroonian Andre Onana, while Mason Mount has also joined from Chelsea. Chelsea and Tottenham both have new managers in Mauricio Pochettino and Ange Postecoglou.
Newcastle's transfer business under their Saudi Arabian ownership has remained steady, though they smashed their transfer record to sign Sandro Tonali from AC Milan.
We predict it will be a tight race for the top four places potentially going to the final day, but feel Liverpool's end of season form is evidence they are far from a finished force under Jurgen Klopp, and will fare much better if they avoid the injury crisis that greeted them at times last season.
We also feel Man United will continue their development under Erik ten Hag, and the signing of Onana will allow his side to play a more progressive style of football than they were with De Gea who was poor at playing out from the back; whilst they are too far off challenging for a title, they will have enough quality to finish in the top four once again.
Newcastle will fall out of the Champions League places, more so due to the likes of Liverpool improving rather than large failures by Eddie Howe and the Magpies.
Premier League top four finishers since 1992
It may come as a surprise to fans, but until the 2001-02 season, not every team in the top four earned a place in the Champions League.
In the first-ever season of the Premier League, only champions Man United earned qualification to the Champions League.
However beginning in 1996-97, rule changes began where more and more teams earned qualification to the Champions League, leading to the current rules where the top four teams earn automatic qualification to the Champions League.
