Who Will Win the Premier League in 2023-24?
Using the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of each team lifting the Premier League title at the end of the season. As the campaign goes on, we’ll track the chance of each of the frontrunners in the title race.
11 December
It’s reached that point of the season. As an early Christmas present, Opta Analyst brings you the first in what will be a weekly running blog between now and the end of the campaign, updating you on where we’re at with the Premier League title race.
At the start of the season, we detailed how the Opta supercomputer saw Manchester City as overwhelming favourites to retain their crown, suggesting Pep Guardiola’s men won the title again in 90.2% of its 10,000 season simulations. However, in the last few weeks in particular, that percentage has significantly decreased.
City uncharacteristically wobbled during a four-game run that saw them draw three and lose one against Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and Aston Villa. In fact, it led to their chances more than halving to less than 45%, though Sunday’s comeback victory at Luton Town has boosted them back up slightly to 47.8%.
That makes City fairly heavy favourites still, but new Premier League leaders Liverpool are coming up fast. It was only four games ago that Jürgen Klopp’s side won the title in just 9.3% of the supercomputer’s simulations, but now 16 games in, that has risen to 31.5%. That comes after City’s stumble and Liverpool’s run of three wins in a row after their 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium.
They were not entirely convincing in any of those three wins it must be said, especially their 2-1 success at Crystal Palace on Saturday where they had looked anything but likely victors before Jordan Ayew’s red card. In typically ruthless fashion, though, Mohamed Salah – scoring his 200th Liverpool goal – and substitute Harvey Elliott turned it around, with Elliott smashing in the latest in a long line of stoppage-time winners the club has managed down the years in the Premier League.
Having had just a 3.5% chance at the start of the season, it is certainly promising for Liverpool that they are up to winning the title almost a third of the time in the supercomputer’s simulations. It therefore hopefully won’t sound too patronising to Aston Villa to say that it’s also a huge achievement for them to be up to a 4.1% chance.
Their 1-0 win over Arsenal on Saturday made it a historic 15th consecutive home victory in the league for the Midlands club and took them to within a point of Mikel Arteta’s men, and just two off the top. Few will have given Unai Emery’s men a chance at the start of the campaign, least of all the Opta supercomputer, with their likelihood standing at just 0.04% before a ball was kicked, and it was only up to 0.2% as recently as four games ago.
Back-to-back home wins against Man City and Arsenal have pushed them up, though, and that percentage would surely be higher if it weren’t for the fact the supercomputer factors in performances in recent seasons, which could be why it still isn’t throwing more of its robo-weight behind them. Villa are certainly one to watch, though.
Arsenal dropped to second place after Liverpool’s win and their defeat at Villa Park. Like Liverpool, Arteta’s side had been creeping up in the title percentages, as high as 26.4% following their late win at Luton last Tuesday. However, that has fallen to just 16.6% having lost two of their last four away games in the Premier League.
Outside of the top four, the Opta supercomputer doesn’t give much hope to the chasing pack. Tottenham’s 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle United was a much-needed boost for Ange Postecoglou’s side, who had picked up just one point from their previous five games. It leaves them with a 0.06% chance of storming back to win the league, but they will be more optimistic about their chances of a top-four finish.
The supercomputer gives Spurs a 13.3% chance of finishing inside the top four, behind the more obvious contenders of Man City (99%), Liverpool (97.4%), Arsenal (94.3%) and Villa (78.9%).
Newcastle are the only other team given any chance of winning the Premier League, albeit only doing so in a rather miraculous 0.04% of simulations. That presumably requires them to get players back fit soon as their injury issues continue to take a toll. Back-to-back three-goal defeats at Everton and Spurs in the last week have been a huge blow, but Eddie Howe’s men are still given an 11.2% chance of finishing in the top four again.
That’s more than can be said for Manchester United, whose topsy-turvy campaign took another dip with a 3-0 humiliation at Old Trafford at the hands of Bournemouth on Saturday. Despite being ahead of Newcastle in the table, Erik ten Hag’s side are given just a 1.7% chance of finishing in the top four, below even Brighton (3%) in the supercomputer’s reckoning.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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