Why Al Horford will stuff the stat sheet in Game 6
We had a bit of a Friday news dump this afternoon. When the offseason began, it wasn't a secret the Arizona Cardinals were shopping DeAndre Hopkins and expected to trade him. As the offseason wore on, the deal became expected, and plenty of rumors were flying around the draft that it could be imminent.
But then came word the Cardinals weren't going to trade him during the draft, so the draft came and went, and Nuk was still with the Cardinals. A month has passed, and Hopkins is no longer a Cardinal, only he wasn't traded. He was released.
While every team in the league is now free to sign Hopkins, dropping him is not free for the Cardinals.
Hopkins has a cap number of $29,988,890 in 2023 and $25,453,886 in 2024, the final two years of an extension he signed when he was traded to the Cardinals in 2020. Arizona will eat $21,077,776 in dead cap with the release of Hopkins, saving $8,911,114 in cap space.
I guess nobody else wanted to pay him that money, either.
OK, let's make some money.
�� The Hot Ticket
Rangers at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
- Key Trend: Jon Gray has struck out 19 hitters in his last three starts.
- The Pick: Gray Over 4.5 strikeouts (-111)
In his first start of the season, Texas' Jon Gray lasted over six innings against the Baltimore Orioles, striking out seven hitters. Unfortunately, he also allowed two solo shots, and those were the only runs the Orioles needed, as they won the game 2-0. Then things went a bit askew for Gray.
Over his next five starts, he pitched only 24 1/3 innings and had an ERA of 4.81. He also struck out only 12 hitters in that span, which looks even worse when you learn he walked just as many. Whenever you're walking as many guys as you're striking out, something isn't working, and you need to adjust.
Gray did.
After throwing his fastball roughly 50% of the time in his first six starts, Gray hasn't thrown it more than 40% of the time in his last three starts. He's stepped up his slider usage while mixing in a few more curves and changeups. The results have been promising.
Jonathan Coachman is joined by Mike McClure, Chip Patterson and Matt Snyder to dish out Friday's best bets!
After striking out only 14.5% of the batters he faced in his first six starts, he's struck out 25.3% of hitters since. He struck out eight in seven innings against Seattle, five in eight innings against Oakland, and six in five innings in his last start against Colorado.
Simply put, he's missing more bats now than he was to start the season, and his prop hasn't quite caught onto it yet. Plus, you know, he did strike out seven Orioles when he saw them earlier this season. All of this makes a total of 4.5 feel a bit low, doesn't it?
��The Picks
Celtics at Heat, Saturday, 8:30 p.m | TV: TNT
The Pick: Al Horford Over 9.5 points and assists (-120) -- We have no NBA or NHL playoffs tonight, which is a terrible way to spend a Friday, but I can't send you into the weekend without a play. I have no idea how this series is going to end. Before Game 5, I had a strong feeling Boston would win, but even so, I did not think it'd affect the final outcome. But watching the Celtics dominate from start to finish has me wondering if Miami will finish the job.
Part of the reason the Celtics dominated is that they look like the Celtics again. The team that played in the first three games was unrecognizable, and one of the players who has found his form is Al Horford. Horford averaged 12.8 points and assists in the regular season and averaged 11.1 through the first 10 games of the playoffs. Then his shot disappeared. From Game 5 of the Philly series through Game 3 against Miami, Horford shot 27% and averaged only 4.2 points per game. He's rebounded in the last two games, and I anticipate we'll see that continue Saturday. He was never as poor a shooter as he was for that stretch. Also, he's finished with at least 10 points and assists in 24 of 36 road games this year, including five of the eight this postseason.
⚽ Soccer
Borussia Dortmund vs. Mainz, Saturday, 9:30 a.m | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: Borussia Dortmund 1st half (-240) -- It's all so simple for Borussia Dortmund. Beat Mainz on Saturday, and you're the champions of the Bundesliga, ending Bayern Munich's 10-year run. A draw isn't likely to do so because it's hard to imagine Bayern losing to Koln knowing it needs to win. But can Dortmund do it? You'd think so, but Dortmund has been one of the most difficult teams in the world to figure out this year. Fortunately, it comes into this match playing well over the last month. Dortmund lost to Bayern 4-2 to start April and followed it up with a 2-0 loss to Leipzig in the DFB Pokal. That's when I assumed it was done for the year.
It hasn't lost since. It's won five matches and drawn two, outscoring opponents 24-7 during that stretch. While that run of play hasn't been against great teams, Mainz isn't a great team right now! Mainz pulled off a 3-1 upset of Bayern Munich last month and had a chance to grab one of Germany's European spots. Instead, it decided to lose its next four matches and has allowed at least three goals in each, getting outscored 13-3. Compounding matters for Mainz, it's been much worse on the road all year, and Dortmund's been much better at home. I think this one is over quickly, but I also fear Dortmund will shut it down once it takes control, so I'm doing something I've never done in this column. I'm betting Dortmund in the first half, as there's more value there than on the full match.
Aston Villa vs. Brighton, Sunday, 11:30 a.m | TV: Peacock
The Pick: Aston Villa (+102) -- While Manchester City has won the Premier League again, there has been more parity in the league than usual. Newcastle United finished in the top four, and Brighton -- the tiny little club from a resort town on the south coast of England -- clinched a Europa League spot earlier this week. And it's that achievement we are taking advantage of here. Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi admitted there would be a bit of celebration instead of practice following Wednesday's match, which makes you wonder how seriously Brighton will take their season finale against Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, Villa has plenty of motivation. A win here clinches a berth in the Europa Conference League, and European play would be a big deal for a club that has battled to establish itself in the league since returning from its relegation. Also, while it hasn't gotten much attention since the calendar flipped to 2023, Manchester City is the only Premier League team to average more points per match than Aston Villa's 1.85.
