MLB Odds, Lines, Best Bets for Friday, April 7: One moneyline and over/under pick for Twins-Astros, Brewers-Cardinals
After baseball bettors had to endure a condensed six-game slate on Thursday with the Mets, Phillies, Orioles, and Twins home openers getting pushed back a day due to weather, Friday's 14-game MLB slate is much more forgiving. Bettors can take advantage of softer early-season lines while still having some data available to aid their decisions.
Can Sonny Gray keep the Astros' offense at bay in his first home start of the year? Will Brandon Woodruff help lead the Brewers to a 6-1 start?
Below, we’ll break down two of our favorite bets (one over/under, one moneyline) to target in Friday's Twins-Astros and Brewers-Cardinals matchups.
Twins-Astros Odds, Best Bet for April 7
Twins fans making the trek to the newly freshened-up Target Field for their home opener better be bundled up, as Friday's forecast is projected to be in the mid-40s. Additionally, winds are expected to be blowing in around 10 miles per hour, which could lead to one of the more pitcher-friendly parks playing into both staff's hands even more so than usual.
Rather than betting a side in this matchup with the betting market already giving the Twins the slight edge, we'll refrain from going against the reigning World Series champs and focus our attention on the total. Although Astros' starter Jose Urquidy's first start of 2023 wasn't as sharp as he'd like (4.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 66 ERA+) he's still around a league-average starter (career ERA+ 109) and is capable of putting together a respectable start on Friday afternoon.
Urquidy was one out away from surrendering just one run over four innings against the White Sox last week, but he mislocated an 0-1 curve to Chicago catcher Seby Zavala, who deposited his mistake into the Crawford Boxes.
Better pitch execution on that at-bat could have resulted in a much different day for the Astros' middle-of-the-rotation starter. With the weather playing to his advantage, look for an improved pitching line from Urquidy, one that can result in this matchup falling UNDER the current total of 7.5 runs. Urquidy has fared well against current Twins hitters in the past, sporting a respectable .184 xOBA and .138 xBA over 31 plate appearances.
On the flip side, Twins' co-ace Sonny Gray has the ability to limit Houston's offensive output over five-plus innings of work, putting his bullpen in a stable spot to keep this game within striking distance. Although he struggled with his command by issuing four walks, Gray's first start of '23 went fairly well, shutting out the Royals over five innings of work.
Houston's offense hasn't been nearly as potent as it's touted to be, ranking below the league average in slugging and isolated power. With Gray likely being able to keep the ball inside the fences, expect a lower-scoring matchup in the Astros' first game away from the cozy Minute Maid Park.
Best Bet: UNDER 8 (-120)
Brewers-Cardinals Odds, Best Bet for April 7
It's early, but the vibe around the 2023 Brewers feels much different than in seasons past. After the Brew Crew's four-year postseason streak was snapped in '22, they've gotten off to a 5-1 start thanks to the new-look offense pulling its weight. On Friday night, the Brewers will look to keep its five-game winning streak intact when they send their co-ace Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 1.50 ERA, 2.13 xFIP) to the mound opposite St. Louis' Jack Flaherty (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8.05 xFIP).
While Flaherty was credited with the win in his first start against Toronto last Saturday, he was extremely fortunate to complete five shutout innings. Flaherty issued a career-high seven walks, pushing his BB/9 up to 12.6, and although he was able to mitigate damage, his 8.05 xFIP points toward some rougher starts in the near future, potentially starting tomorrow night against a red-hot Brewers offense.
Woodruff, meanwhile, is as consistent as they come in today's game, as he's essentially a shoo-in for a quality start every fifth day. We're not anywhere close to hitting the panic button in St. Louis despite a 2-4 start because the Cardinals have had arguably the toughest schedule to date, starting their season off against the Blue Jays and Braves.
It won't get easier against Woodruff on Friday, and while some bettors might look to bet on the Cardinals given the projected division winners are amid a three-game losing skid, we think they're a better bet on Saturday night when Jordan Montgomery gets the ball opposite Eric Lauer. Give us the Brew Crew to notch their sixth consecutive win at a relatively short price in the series opener.
