Why Cowboys are a sneaky good bet to win the NFC East over Eagles

After dominating the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday to pull even in the NFC East at 10-3, the Dallas Cowboys still have distant second-place odds to win the division.

Though they’re currently in first place on tiebreakers, the Cowboys have +225 odds to win the East compared to -275 for the Eagles. The reason is simple: Philadelphia’s remaining schedule is so much easier than Dallas’, and it leaves the Eagles in better position to own the tiebreaker at season’s end.

However, that doesn’t guarantee they will. The direction these teams are trending shows why Dallas’ odds may be worth a sprinkle.

First, let’s start by taking a look at each team’s remaining opponents:

What immediately jumps out are the three games remaining on Dallas’ schedule against teams with records over .500. The Eagles have none. But also worth paying attention to are the amount of games remaining against NFC opponents, because that’s likely to play a factor in tiebreakers.

If the Eagles win out — which is entirely possible — they’ll come out on top regardless of what Dallas does. The first tiebreaker is division record, and both teams are likely to finish 5-1. The next tiebreaker is conference record, where the Eagles currently hold a one-game advantage.

However, that’s where it helps that Dallas only has two games remaining in the conference and the Eagles have four. If the Eagles lose just one of their remaining games, Dallas would only need to beat the Lions and Commanders and split between the Bills and Dolphins to force the next tiebreaker, which is strength of victory. With a plus-188 win differential, the Cowboys currently hold a significant advantage in that category over the Eagles at plus-21.

So, how likely is it for the Eagles to lose one of those next four games? Well, I think it’s safe to assume they won’t be underdogs in any of them, which is exactly why they still hold an edge in the division. But we shouldn’t just assume they will win them all. Even before their current two-game losing streak, they were far from dominant this season — thus the small point differential.

The team on their schedule with the best chance to beat them is Seattle, which is riding a four-game losing streak. But it won’t be an easy game for the Eagles, who are on the road for a second straight week. Especially if Geno Smith is recovered from the groin injury that kept him out Sunday. The Eagles and Seahawks have actually been very similar over the last four weeks, ranking 14th and 15th, respectively, in offensive EPA and 30th and 31st in defensive EPA since Week 11, according to rbsdm.

If they pass that test, things get significantly easier, though playing the same team twice in the final three weeks could present another challenge.

As for Dallas, a three-game stretch against the Bills, Dolphins and Lions is significantly tougher, but those are all teams we’ve had questions about; the Bills are outside the playoff picture, the Dolphins haven’t beaten a team with a winning record, and the Lions are reeling after losing to Chicago. The Cowboys are likely to be favored over each, especially with how good they’ve looked in recent weeks.

So, while odds favor the Eagles to win the division due to an easier path, the Cowboys still hold value because of how much better they’re playing.