Why Each MLB Playoff Team Will-and Won’t-Win the World Series
The World Series is this month. There are eight teams in the playoff field. According to Baseball Prospectus, no team has a better than a 20 percent chance to win the World Championship.
The Giants won 97 games in the regular season. Logan Webb hasn't lost a game since May 5. The Giants have six relievers with an ERA below 3.00. Camilo Doval didn't allow a run in 14 innings in September.
The Giants have to play the Dodgers in the playoffs. The teams were very evenly matched in regular season. Brandon Belt is out for the whole season with a broken thumb. Jake McGee hasn't pitched since September 12. Kevin Gausman's ERA rose from 1.73 to 4.42 in second half, Anthony DeSclafani's from 2.68 to 3.03.
The Dodgers are the favorite to win the World Series. They have the best overall team this season in both run differential and total WAR. Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Trea Turner form the top of the order of any playoff lineup. Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen and Kenly Jansen are in a good form.
The Dodgers are missing Clayton Kershaw and Max Muncy. They have to face the Giants in the NLCS. They need to lose to one of the best teams in baseball before the World Series. The Yankees won the title twice in a row. It's hard to win multiple titles in one season.
The Brewers have a strong rotation and a good bullpen. They are in a weak division and will play the weakest first-round opponent in the field in Atlanta. They should be able to advance to the NLCS. The team is not as deep as the other two teams. It's a great advantage for them that they are playing the Braves.
Milwaukee's starters can't win 11 games all by themselves. The team has to score runs, too. Devin Williams will miss the postseason after punching a wall and breaking his hand. Christian Yelich hit just nine home runs all year. Josh Hader didn't go more than one inning in any game during the regular season.
Atlanta has the least imposing roster and the fewest regular-season wins of any playoff team. Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson form a mighty rotation. Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler hit 30 home runs each.
Atlanta has the least imposing roster and the fewest regular-season wins of any playoff team. Ronald Acuña Jr. is hurt and their bullpen isn't reliable. Atlanta posted the worst winning percentage for any playoffs team despite playing the easiest schedule in the majors.
Tampa Bay Rays are playing in the ALDS. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Morton are gone from last year's team. Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen are scheduled for games 1 to 3 of the series. The team's offense is the best in franchise history and the second-highest-scoring in MLB this year. Randy Arozarena is a favorite for AL Rookie of Year.
The Rays are the favorite to win the World Series. They have some weaknesses on offense and defense. They struck out more than any other team in the regular season. The starting pitchers are less important than other starting players, but still matter.
The Boston Red Sox are the favorite to win the World Series. They have a fearsome lineup with Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts. Nathan Eovaldi was one of the AL's best pitchers this season. Chris Sale is an X factor. Alex Cora has never lost a postseason series in his coaching and managerial career.
The Boston Red Sox won the wild-card game against the Yankees. They are going to play against a team that is not as good as the other contenders. J.D. Martinez is injured and José Iglesias is ineligible. The team's defensive performance and bullpen are also weaknesses.
Houston has a dangerous lineup, a deep rotation and a dependable bullpen. The team has made four consecutive ALCS appearances. The position players from that run are still around and mashing. Kyle Tucker will replace George Springer in the outfield. Houston's fielders ranked second in MLB in outs above average in regular season.
The Astros have a tough schedule. Their starters are not great, but their midseason trade additions were better before the deadline. The White Sox have the advantage in every pitching matchup.
The White Sox are the closest thing to the Brewers in the AL. They have a dangerous lineup, a deep rotation and a dependable bullpen. Houston has the best offense in MLB. The White Sells were missing Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert for most of the season. Robert was one of MLB's best players when healthy.
