Wild vs Flames Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 December 2023

Wild vs Flames Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Calgary Flames have had recent success against the Minnesota Wild, but our NHL picks are fading a certain Calgary skater for tonight's matchup. Find out who in our Wild vs. Flames betting preview!

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Calgary Flames host the Minnesota Wild in a Western Conference tilt during Tuesday’s NHL slate, with NHL odds having this game split down the middle.

Calgary has fared well over the past couple of seasons when these two teams meet, winning six of the past eight meetings. With that said, I've found an NHL player prop I can take advantage of by fading a certain Flames skater.

Find out who I'll be targeting in my free NHL picks for Wild vs. Flames on Tuesday. December 5.

Wild vs Flames odds

Wild vs Flames predictions

The Minnesota Wild enter this contest amidst a three-game win streak following the firing of Dean Evason and subsequent hiring of Hynes. While I'm not looking to back the Wild exclusively in this contest, I'm going to fade a specific member of Calgary: Nazem Kadri.

Even before the firing of Evason, the one good thing Minnesota has done this season is limit high-danger scoring chances. At 5-on-5, the Wild rank sixth in the league expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

A big reason for this defensive success at even strength has been the emergence of rookie defenseman Brock Faber, whose been terrific in his own zone. So, why does Minnesota still rank 27th in goals allowed per game?

The answer is two-fold. First, the penalty kill has been terrible, ranking last in the NHL. However, that area of the game could be nullified against Kadri and the Calgary Flames, a team that ranks just 26th on the power play.

Second, goaltender Filip Gustavsson has put together an inconsistent start to the campaign, but he's been a prime positive regression candidate all year which has finally started to come to fruition recently.

Over Gustavsson’s past two starts, he is 2-0 with a .961 SV% and 1.00 GAA. That could give Kadri some trouble in this matchup, and it’s also important to note he's failed to record a point in 12 of his past 20 games against the Wild.

My best bet: Nazem Kadri Under 0.5 points (+100 at SIA)

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Wild vs Flames same-game parlay

The biggest question mark regarding this game is Calgary goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who is listed as questionable after leaving practice on Monday following a puck hitting his hand. If he's unable to go, then Daniel Vladar is expected to get the nod in Markstrom’s absence.

I don’t trust Vladar at all to get the win for the Flames, but I think he can at least keep this game close in a low-scoring battle. Minnesota’s blue line has fared well at even-strenght, its offense... not so much.

At 5-on-5, the Wild rank 21st in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Additionally, Vladar is coming off his best start of the season against the Golden Knights, a game in which he stopped 27 of 28 pucks for a .964 SV%.

With that said, even in what could be a low-scoring battle, I trust Minnesota more than the Flames in all three zones.

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Wild vs Flames moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Wild opened as a +108 underdog and have since been bet all the way up to a pick ‘em. The market is clearly respecting how Minnesota has started to turn things around since the change behind the bench, and Markstrom’s potential absence likely also plays a role.

That brings us to the total, which is between 6.0 and 6.5 depending on the book. Goaltending is a volatile position as it is, and that will be the biggest concern for Under backers in this matchup.

However, at 5-on-5, both teams rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60 and bottom half in xGF/60. There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in four of the past five meetings between these two teams.