William And Mary Vs. Elon Prediction And More CAA Picks
In 2019 when college football initiated its most significant changes to overtime rules since adding extra periods more than 20 years prior, the first Football Championship game decided with the format change was William & Mary's 31-29 defeat of Elon.
The five-overtime marathon marked the first meeting between head coaches Mike London and Tony Trisciani, and the history-making encounter set the tone for the William & Mary-Elon series.
In three fall-season installments, the combined margin between the Tribe and Phoenix adds up to nine points with no game decided by more than four points.
"Two good CAA programs," Trisciani said of Elon and William & Mary's. Trisciani's Phoenix took last year's meeting in Williamsburg, 35-31, in a contest that was a cornerstone for Elon's return to the FCS Playoffs — and the only blemish on William & Mary's co-championship-winning docket.
"Mike's been able to develop his players and keep his players," Trisciani added. "He hasn't been hit hard by the transfer portal. They're able to run the football, they play really good defense, they're really well-coached, they play hard, and it's a veteran football team that he's got."
William & Mary's defense has been its foundation en route to the only 4-0 start in the FCS. In three games since beating Campbell in the opener, 34-24, the Tribe have held opponents to six, seven and three points. Nate Lynn and John Pius have been as-advertised with nine combined sacks, 15 total tackles for loss and five overall quarterback hurries; Kevin Jarrell is making plays against the run and pass; and opponents are averaging just 105.3 passing yards per game.
When it comes to running on the other side of the ball, William & Mary's 246 yards per game rank top 10 nationally. Meanwhile, to Trisciani's point about veteran leadership, central to the Tribe's prolific rushing game has been Bronson Yoder at 102 yards a contest.
Yoder was on the field for the 2019 five-overtime contest, rushing for 54 yards and returning three kickoffs for 60 yards. Lynn was also involved that day with four tackles.
Elon isn't without its own holdovers from the 2019 game, a group including wide receiver Chandler Brayboy. Some of the other headline names for the Phoenix in the 2023 edition either weren't around for the five-overtime installment or didn't have much impact.
But last year's signature victory at Zable Stadium included an interception from Bo Sanders, a forced fumble by Marvin Pearson, and Jalen Hampton's three rushing touchdowns.
Hampton's three scores set a personal best — one that lasted until last week, when he ran for four in a 28-24 win at Campbell. Hampton earned CAA Offensive Player of the Week and matched Elon's single-game record at the Div. I level.
The Phoenix defeat of the Camels encapsulated Elon's identity under Trisciani, and followed a formula similar to how the coach described London's William & Mary program: consistent rushing offense complementing hard-nosed defense.
Elon held Campell to just 1.4 rushing yards an attempt and racked up seven sacks. Each of Pearson, Cazeem Moore, Shon Brown and Jesse Powell II got to the quarterback, and the consistent pressure turned into an interception for Sanders.
"Tony does a good job with his team. He's a really good football coach, he's got a great staff. His student-athletes do a good job of knowing the game," London said of Elon. "They're a really good team now. If you look at the statistical information that the conference puts out, there are a lot of areas where we may be 1 or 2 or right close together with them."
The similarities should make for another thriller between teams jockeying for early Coastal Athletic Association championship position. Both are 2-0 in league play and riding winning streaks coming into Week 5.
Yoder's availability after sustaining a late-game "upper-body injury" in last week's win over Maine could be a significant subplot. However, fellow Tribe running back Malachi Imoh scored two touchdowns in last year's meeting with Elon (one rushing, one receiving), so the dynamic change-of-pace playmaker will be one to watch regardless.
Consider this matchup a coin flip. Rhodes Stadium was rocking for the Phoenix's home-opener, a CAA win over North Carolina A&T. Similar energy for No. 4-ranked William & Mary's visit could be a pivotal point. So, too, could the Tribe's collective experience. Either way, expect a nail-biting finish.
PREDICTION: William & Mary 21, Elon 20
Villanova at UAlbany
Another Week 5 matchup sending a Top 20-ranked CAA team on the road to meet a dangerous opponent pits Villanova against UAlbany. And, like Elon-William & Mary, the pairing of the Great Danes and Wildcats features teams with similar profiles.
Both offenses feature standout quarterbacks in UAlbany's Reese Poffenbarger and Villanova's Connor Watkins, each a dual-capable playmaker. Poffenbarger and Watkins both have sensational wide-receiving corps around them: UAlbany featuring Julian Hicks, Caden Burti and Brevin Easton, Villanova with Rayjoun Pringle, Jaylan Sanchez and the recently returned Jaaron Hayek.
In last season's 31-29 Wildcats win, Easton hauled in a touchdown reception for the Great Danes while Pringle erupted for 143 yards and a pair of scores.
While there are certainly plenty of contributors from both sides back for this season's encounter, and each offense rife with explosive potential, perhaps the most significant subplot shaping this matchup is the strides both defenses have made since 2022.
Last year, Villanova ranked ninth in the CAA at 28.5 points allowed per game. UAlbany's 34.1-point per game yield was second-to-last in the conference.
This year, the Wildcats come into Tom & Mary Casey Stadium ranked third in the CAA at 21.5 points allowed a contest. Just ahead of them? UAlbany at 20.5. Each has been especially stingy against FCS competition, with neither allowing an opponent from the subdivision to score 20 points yet this season.
The dramatically improved UAlbany defense starts up front with the aggressive pass-rush, led by national sack leader Anton Juncaj. Juncaj comes into Week 5 with seven sacks, while A.J. Simon boasts four.
Along with effectively getting to the quarterback, the UAlbany rush defense is limiting opponents to 85 yards per game and 2.6 yards a carry. Against Morgan State, the front seven's ability to get push at the point of attack was vital to the Great Danes securing an overtime win.
Villanova's rush defense is allowing just 105.5 yards per game and 3.1 a carry, while the pass defense has produced as many interceptions (four) as it has allowed touchdowns. The Wildcats secondary features any number of potential big-play backs like Devon Marshall and Jalen Goodman, while the front seven has seen the emergence of Brendan Bell at linebacker and Jake Reichwein on the line as central to generating pressure.
Saturday's matchup should be a slugfest won on the lines.
PREDICTION: UAlbany 20, Villanova 17
Hampton at Richmond
In-state counterparts Richmond and Hampton meet at Robins Stadium, each with reason to feel optimistic.
Richmond opened CAA play winning a physical affair on the road at Stony Brook, rallying to score the game-winning field goal in the final minute. The Spiders are now winners in two straight after a disappointing start after last year's run to the Playoffs, and begin a stretch with four league games at home over the next six dates.
Holding serve at home for those contests and scoring one of the two road dates sandwiched between — Oct. 14 at Rhode Island and Oct. 21 at North Carolina A&T — would have Richmond in the conference-title hunt come the 134th edition of the Oldest Rivalry in the South.
Such a scenario is contingent on the Spiders winning the first of those four home games, however. That means solving a Hampton offense that's been potent through the Pirates' first three games.
Hampton is averaging 31 points and 412.7 yards in a 2-1 start that, without some self-inflicted wounds in Week 2, could easily be a 3-0 start. — Hampton Football (@Hampton_FB) September 17, 2023
