2023 FCS Quarterfinal Odds and Predictions: Furman vs Montana, Villanova vs SDSU, NDSU vs South Dakota & Albany vs Idaho
Odds as of December 6th at DraftKings. Sign up at the top-rated sportsbook with the DraftKings promo code to bet on FCS playoffs this weekend.
Furman vs Montana Prediction & Pick
Kicking off the FCS Quarterfinals is a matchup between No. 2 Montana and No. 7 Furman on Friday evening. The Grizzlies dominated Delaware 49-19 in the opening playoff round, while Furman secured a 26-7 win over Chattanooga.
The Montana vs Furman odds list the Grizzlies as 17.5-point favorites on ESPN2 in Missoula. The Grizzlies have clear edges in this game, including in coaching as 13-year veteran Bobby Hauck is the winningest coach in Big Sky history. Dual-threat senior quarterback Clifton McDowell is also a game-changer.
There’s little doubt Montana will win this game, but will they cover the spread? Furman’s defense has been excellent at getting to the quarterback this season, posting 36 sacks, including half from the linebacking corps. The team is also getting healthy with starting QB Tyler Huff and RB Dominic Roberto returning from injury last week.
We think Montana will pull away in this game, especially with it being played Friday night at home, but there’s some value on Furman to stay within the number. They haven’t been blown out by an FCS opponent all season, and their elite defense (16.8 PPG) should keep them in the game.
- Pick: Furman +17.5 (-110)
Villanova vs South Dakota State Prediction & Best Bet
Kicking off the Saturday FCS schedule is a quarterfinal matchup between No. 8 Villanova and No. 1 South Dakota State at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium in Brookings, South Dakota. This is another large FCS quarterfinal spread, with the Jackrabbits priced as 20.5-point favorites on their home field.
It isn’t hard to see why oddsmakers are heavily favoring SDSU, as the team is on a 26-game winning streak, including a remarkable 19-game streak at home. The reigning champs rank in the top 10 of scoring offense, total offense, scoring defense, and total defense, while boasting the nation’s leading point differential (plus-331).
The key matchup in this game will be South Dakota State’s run game facing Villanova’s run defense. Jackrabbits’ senior RB Isaiah Davis is arguably the best in the FCS, rushing for 1,192 yards and 14 TDs this season (6.7 ypc). He will face a Villanova defense surrendering only 99 rushing yards per game to FCS opponents.
There’s not much value with the spread here, as our projections have this game as a 20.5-point victory for the home squad. We like the “under” with both teams boasting strong defenses and rushing attacks. The Wildcat defense has held their opponents to 18 points per game, while the Jackrabbits’ defense has held half their opponents to seven points or fewer.
North Dakota State vs South Dakota Prediction
Continuing the action on FCS quarterfinal Saturday is a clash between North Dakota State and No. 3 South Dakota at the DakotaDome in Vermillion, South Dakota. NDSU is making a 14th straight appearance in the FCS playoff quarterfinals, while South Dakota is doing so for the first time.
The Coyotes hold home-field advantage in this game after winning 24-19 over the Bison during the regular season. USD’s quarterback was very efficient in the first meeting, completing 10 of 12 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.
It’s very hard to beat a team twice in one season, which is part of why the Bison are being favored for the rematch. Oddsmakers are also aware the public perception is much higher for North Dakota State than it is for South Dakota, which means the line could be slightly inflated.
The Bison were gashed for over 500 yards of offense in a wild 35-34 overtime win over Montana State last weekend and have lost their previous two quarterfinals games played on the road. We like taking the points with the home underdog, as their run game is gaining momentum and their defense is dominant.
- Pick: South Dakota (+6.5 -110)
Albany vs Idaho Picks & Predictions
Concluding the FCS quarterfinals games for Saturday is a matchup between No. 5 Albany and No. 4 Idaho at the Kibbie Dome in Moscow, Idaho at 6:00 PM EST. This is the tightest spread in the weekend FCS odds, with oddsmakers pricing the Vandals as 4.5-point favorites over the Great Danes.
Albany’s defense is elite and could be the difference-maker in this game. The Great Danes are only allowing 16.8 points per game and lead all FCS teams with 47 sacks. Edge linemen Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon have combined for 26.5 sacks and helped the team produce an FCS-leading 27 turnovers.
While the Great Danes hold key defensive edges, they are 0-8 in games played outside the Eastern time zone and 0-3 all-time against Big Sky Conference opponents. UAlbany head coach Greg Gattuso referenced the team’s road success this season and stated, “I’m not fearful of making a hard trip to play a game. It doesn’t worry me even a little bit.”
Idaho required a field goal in overtime to beat Southern Illinois, and we project this game could come down to a similar scenario. Vandals freshman QB Gevani McCoy has thrown eight interceptions with 14 TDs this season, and we aren’t confident he’ll be able to handle the ferocious Albany pass rush.
