Wisconsin vs LSU Odds, Prediction & Betting Promos for ReliaQuest Bowl
Odds as of Dec. 31 at ESPN Bet. Get $250 in bonus bets with SBD’s ESPN Bet promo by entering the promo code DIME.
LSU’s Offense Best in the Nation … With Daniels at QB
Daniels’ Heisman-winning season was one for the ages. The dual-threat quarterback threw for 3,812 yards with 40 touchdowns and just four interceptions while adding a team-high 1,134 rushing yards and another ten touchdowns on the ground.
LSU finished the year ranked first in scoring (46.4 PPG) and first in offensive efficiency (97.5) per ESPN. However, the Tigers went just 1-3 against ranked teams, their only win coming at Missouri (49-39), thanks to a defense that rated a horrendous 102nd in efficiency and 80th in scoring (27.8 PPG).
The defense gave up over 40 points in each of the team’s three losses: 45-24 vs Florida State, 55-49 at Ole Miss, and 42-28 at Alabama.
Nussmeier appeared in five games this season, going just 17-of-33 for 196 yards and one touchdown with a 38.9 QBR. a handful of passes all season,
The good news for Nussmeier is that he should have a full complement of weapons at receiver and running back, including WR Malik Nabers, who led the entire country in receiving yards (1,546) and was tied for third in receiving touchdowns (14).
With Daniels’ legs not part of the equation, LSU will lean a lot more heavily on running back Logan Diggs. The Notre Dame transfer had 652 yards on 118 carries (5.5 YPC) along with seven touchdowns in just nine games for LSU’s pass-happy attack.
Wisconsin Barely Over. 500 Despite Weak Schedule
Playing in the anemic Big Ten East, the Badgers went just 7-5 (including a 5-4 record in conference play). Wisconsin played only one game against a top-25 team all season, losing 24-10 at home to Ohio State.
Their other four setbacks came against Washington State (31-22 away), Iowa (15-6 home), Indiana (20-14 away), and Northwestern (24-10 home). For the season as a whole, Wisconsin averaged just 22.8 PPG (104th in the FBS) and ranked 51st in overall efficiency (78th on offense and 42nd on defense).
That said, the Badgers were forced to play three games without starting QB Tanner Mordecai and went just 1-2 in those matchups. With the SMU transfer under center, Wisconsin was 6-3 and averaged a slightly-more-encouraging 25.0 PPG.
While Mordecai was very underwhelming in his first season in Madison (1,687 passing yards, six TDs, four INTs, 64.6% completion percentage, and a 62.6 QBR in nine games), backup Braedyn Locke was a big step down, going just 76-of-152 (50% completion percentage) for 777 yards, five TDs, one pick, and a 44.8 QBR in parts of five games.
The Badgers aren’t missing anyone of Daniels’ caliber in the ReliaQuest Bowl, but they will be missing a significant piece on defense with linebacker Jordan Turner (61 tackles, three sacks, one forced fumble) entering the transfer portal and taking his talents to Michigan State.
Wisconsin vs LSU Prediction
With the game in Tampa, there is likely to be a partisan LSU crowd in attendance, and LSU has been far more impressive all season than Wisconsin. But there is not enough evidence of how the offense will perform without Daniels for me to lay double-digits on the Tigers. Wisconsin’s defense has been its calling card, and it managed to hold Ohio State to 24 points and 407 yards in late October.
Mordecai and the offense will find the sledding much easier against LSU than the average Big Ten defense it faced this season.
Wisconsin vs LSU pick: Wisconsin +10 (-110)
- ATS: 5-9-1 (-4.45 units)
- ML: 7-3 (+6.06 units)
- O/U: 5-1 (+3.58 units)
- Player props: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
- Total: +3.19 units
