Women's World Cup picks, UFC dog play: Best Bets for July 29
Each day, one of our experts at bet.NOLA.com will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks in Louisiana are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
A reminder for those who haven’t signed up yet: New users can get a risk-free bet at Caesars Sportsbook, meaning that if your first bet loses, you get a bonus bet for the same amount up to $1,250. New users also get 1,000 Caesars Rewards points to redeem for hotel or casino credit.
Here are our best bets for Saturday, July 29:
TOP PLAY
The play: Women's World Cup, Jamaica money line over Panama
The odds/bet: -140 ($42 to win $30)
Time/TV: 7:30 a.m. (Fox)
Our take: Group F was touted as a top-heavy group that was supposed to see Brazil and France tough it out for the top spot. However, Jamaica threw a wrench in that narrative immediately. The Reggae Girlz picked up a point on matchday one thanks to a phenomenal defensive showing against France.
Les Bleues take on Brazil this evening, and depending on how that contest plays out, Jamaica could be top of the group with one match to go. People slept on the Reggae Girlz coming into this one, the line (-140) tells us that isn't the case any longer after their 0-0 draw with the European Championship semifinalists.
Panama, meanwhile, has played three matches in the last 30 days. Las Canaleras have lost those games by an aggregate score of 16-0 to Spain, Japan and Brazil. Panama's team simply looks too inexperienced to compete with the mature heavyweights in this group.
As long as Jamaica puts on a performance on par with last Sunday's, it should be able to overpower its young foes.
WOMEN'S WORLD CUP CHALK
The play: Women's World Cup, Sweden money line over Italy
The odds/bet: -111 ($11.10 to win $10)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 2:30 a.m. (Fox Sports 1)
Our take: Sweden has not looked particularly sharp as of late. Nevertheless, it overcame some struggles against South Africa in the opening match to win 2-1. The Blue and Yellow will now look to make it two-out-of-two in a bout against Italy for sole possession of first place in Group G.
Sweden is the third-rated team in the world, according to the FIFA Women's Ranking. Therefore, -111 can be considered an excellent value given the recent forms of both teams. The Swedes have lost just three times in their last 15 matches, whereas the Italians have lost five of their last 10.
It might not be pretty but we're rocking with the battle-tested Sweden side over the No. 16 ranked side.
BONUS BET IN LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT AT UFC 291
The play: UFC 291, Alex Pereira to defeat Jan Blachowicz
The odds/bet: -105 ($10.50 to win $10)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 10:30 p.m. (ESPN+ Pay Per View)
Our take: We've got a bonus bet for you on this fine Saturday and it takes place nearly 24 hours after the Women's World Cup plays we suggested above. Therefore, if you don't get those tickets in before kickoff, you've still got a chance to win to start off your weekend.
Alex Pereira has minimal experience in the UFC compared to his competitor, Jan Blachowicz. However, the Polish fighter is now 40 years old and he's not as active on the UFC front anymore. He's struggled with injuries and honestly, this isn't a great opponent for him stylistically.
As long as Pereira is able to fend off Blachowicz's ground game — which will be minimal as Blachowicz doesn't have enough gas in the tank to grapple for long periods of time nowadays — he should be able to outlast his opponent. That is if the Brazilian kickboxer doesn't TKO Blachowicz beforehand.
Pereira has faced much tougher competition in Israel Adesanya recently ... and won once. Blachowicz is now coming up against the pupil of the last man to beat him, Glover Teixeira. I really don't like this matchup for the Polish legend, and I really like Pereira at -105 odds. Get them while you can.
HOW WE’VE FARED
Women's World Cup: China-Haiti OVER 2.5 goals (LOST $30)
Women's World Cup: Denmark-England UNDER 2.5 goals (WON $10)
3M Open: Cameron Young to finish in the top 20 (LOST $10)
Friday's profit/loss: -$20 (1-1)
Total for the week: -$142.20 (3-7)
Total for July: -$217.20 (21-29)
Total for 2023: -$606 (171-192)
If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
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