Wood Memorial Prediction & Odds- Tough Post Position for Favored Hit Show
Hit Show Has the Best Resume
If Hit Show drew post position seven, he probably would be in the neighborhood of +180. Though it is a limited number of races, since late in 2017, posts 10 and outward in races over a while on the Aqueduct dirt are 0/11.
Last weekend Kentucky Derby favorite Forte overcame a bad post to win the Florida Derby. Is Hit Show good enough to win despite likely running wide? Breaking from the outside with a short run to the first turn, he isn’t going to have many options to avoid it.
Hit Show has three wins in four races. He dominated Aqueduct’s Withers Stakes in February.
Two of his rivals on Saturday, Arctic Arrogance and General Banker were second and third, but not close to Hit Show. In four races, Hit Show has three wins, and has been the favorite each time. The son of Pacific Classic winner Candy Ride is trained by Brad Cox and owned by Gary and Mary West, top connections.
Todd Pletcher’s Trio Must Be Considered In Wood Memorial Contenders
Pletcher is New York based and has won the Wood in back-to-back years, three of the last four, and in seven of the last 12 runnings.
Dreamlike remains a maiden. A $975,000 son of Gun Runner, he finished second at Gulfstream Park on February 11, and a month later ran similarly. Both races have been fast, and he certainly has improvement in the tank, but there is no doubt he is facing better horses on Saturday.
Crupi is also a maiden, but has gone six career races without a victory. He came close against non-winners in November, and again in January, but was not a factor on February 18 in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.
Classic Catch broke his maiden at Aqueduct in November, finished third in an optional claiming affair at Tampa Bay Downs in January, and last month blew away optional claimers at Gulfstream Park. From a speed standpoint, each of the last three races have been similar. He will need to run faster to win on Saturday.
Recency Bias
It is really easy to make decisions based on what you most recently witnessed. In the case of Slip Mahoney, that may be a mistake. After a ho-hum debut in November, he ran two very strong maiden races to close 2022 and begin 2023. His neck loss to Tapit Trice, among the Derby favorites, was impressive, as was his maiden breaker over Crupi in January. In March’s Gotham Stakes, he got out very poorly, but rallied to finish a distant second.
Trained by Cox, the son of Breeders Cup Classic winner Arrogate needs to improve only mildly from his two maiden races to be in the mix against this group. Getting jockey Dylan Davis back, after he did not ride on March 4, should help too.
Arctic Arrogance is another horse that it might be worthwhile to look past his last race. He was second, but more than five lengths behind Hit Show. Arctic Arrogance has two wins and four seconds in six starts, and his best race fits well with this group. He was +175 while Hit Show was +130 in the Withers Stakes. At +600 now, there might be value on him turning the tables.
Wood Memorial Prediction
It is hard to take a short price on Hit Show based on his post position. Also, while his last race is better than what anyone else in this field has run, it isn’t that way by a large margin.
Though Pletcher has dominated The Wood, the ROI on playing maidens against winner’s isn’t strong. That said, Dreamlike may be special and putting blinkers on is a move that Pletcher uses effectively.
Slip Mahoney is a better price with a legitimate excuse for his last race, which wasn’t great, but wasn’t awful either. His previous two efforts make him a player on Saturday. He offers value in a fairly wide open prep.
Wood Memorial Pick: Slip Mahoney (+600)
