World Cup well within Ireland’s reach

When the draw for this year’s Rugby World Cup was made in December 2020, we resided in a very different world. Seismically different.

It’s barely recognisable now. The world had yet to emerge from a pandemic that had stretched its tentacles into every corner of the globe, Mayo’s own Joe Biden had yet to move into his new residence at the White House and Ireland had just finished third in their first Six Nations of the post-Schmidt era.

It wasn’t by any means a choppy start to Andy Farrell’s tenure as Ireland’s new head coach – at the same time, his side had none of the characteristics of world-beaters. It was clear that Ireland were still hungover following their 32-point humbling at the hands of New Zealand in the 2019 World Cup quarter-final. And the onset of a global pandemic the following winter didn’t exactly help cultivate the conditions needed to turn over a new leaf. For many, Ireland had failed to make hay with a golden generation under the tutelage of Joe Schmidt. Calves at the gates of an abattoir, many felt, had better prospects of prosperous futures than Andy Farrell’s side.

If Farrell was to become a messianic figure like his predecessor, there was a sense that the journey there would be a slow burner. The first step had to be the avoidance of a return to the days of never-ending mediocrity.

Since then though, Ireland’s trajectory has been stunningly steep. Instead of pottering away as a mid-table Six Nations outfit, Farrell’s team is instead steamrolling into this autumn’s World Cup as the number one ranked side in the world. The team hasn’t lost a game since the first Test on their summer tour of New Zealand in the summer of 2022.

Despite that loss, they bounced back to win their first ever series on the All Blacks’ home turf. And the side hasn’t looked back since. With victory over Samoa in Bayonne on Saturday evening, they registered their 13th consecutive win, eclipsing the record they set under Schmidt a few seasons ago.

Still, the stars haven’t aligned perfectly. If the reigning Six Nations champions go on to win the biggest prize on offer in rugby, they’ll have to do so by going through the so-called Pool of Death in France. No side that has come through such a pool has ever gone on to lift the Webb Ellis trophy by the end of the tournament. And if Ireland emerge from the group as expected, they’ll then have to contend with the toughest side of the draw by some distance.

A possible route to the final could feature France or New Zealand in a quarter-final. The ceiling through which Ireland must still find a way to smash will be no easier simply because they’re now recognised as the best side in the world.

It’s an unfortunate reality for Farrell and his side given it’s not difficult to make a case against most of the other major contenders winning the tournament outright. Wales and England have both found themselves in form whereby they are focussing on getting the basic elements of the game in a solid place, as opposed to introducing the element of creativity required to win the quadrennial event. Expectations are therefore exceedingly low in both nations.

Australia, meanwhile, appear to be a side in disarray after their attack coach opted to leave the set-up earlier this month. Before Brad David left, the Wallabies had failed to win a game in the Rugby Championship.

Steve Hansen, a former World Cup-winning coach with the All Blacks, has since joined Eddie Jones’ side but even that has been met with ridicule in some quarters. All Black forward Scott Barrett remarked last week, his tongue assumedly firmly in his cheek, that Hansen must have lost a bet.

Across the other side of the Atlantic, Argentina have yet to win a major competitive trophy in international rugby. Winning their first Rugby Championship title seems like it needs to be the first step if they’re to eventually win a World Cup. The same applies to Scotland, their last major tournament victory being back in 1999 in the then-Five Nations. And while the Scots are clearly on an similarly upward trajectory to Ireland, silverware over the coming weeks would seem to be a step too far.

Until last Friday night, New Zealand were mischievously approaching the tournament like a crocodile with his eyes on a gazelle by the bank of a river. With a clean sweep of victories en route to winning yet another Rugby Championship title, the case against another World Cup victory for the All Blacks’ was almost non-existent. But South Africa brutally flayed Ian Foster’s outfit as if they were a Tier Two side as they registered a record-breaking 28-point win at Twickenham. That victory obviously strengthened the world champions credentials as favourites for the tournament, although they will still have to meander their way through a tough pool and tricky knockout stages without a few pivotal players – Handre Pollard, Lukhanyo Am and Lood de Jager – who were crucial to their victory in Japan four years ago.

That leaves France, a side Ireland overcame by 13 points back in spring. But it was a fairly comfortable 13-point win and the Irish squad seems to have taken its game to a new level in the meantime. All things considered, surely only a final appearance can be deemed a successful tournament for the side.

Deeming a semi-final appearance as success, when entering the tournament as the number one ranked side in the world, only demonstrates a defeatist mentality which will always be exposed over the course of an intense couple of weeks.

If any previous World Cup winner was entering this year’s tournaments with Ireland’s form, talent and relatively short injury list at their disposal, they would be very short favourites regardless of their position in a Pool of Death. Farrell will obviously still need a generous slice of luck to ensure key players remain injury free in what is sure to be a gruelling campaign, but Ireland may never get another shot at winning the tournament.

As evidenced by Ireland’s journey since the draw was made, a lot can happen within a few short seasons. The cards may not have been falling right for other sides recently. But that won’t last forever.