World Series odds: Can the Astros win it all again? Oddsmakers believe so

Pitch clocks and pizza box-size bases. Limited pickoff attempts and Little League-like extra-inning rules. Balanced schedules and no more defensive shifts.

Indeed, Major League Baseball is going to look and feel a whole lot different in 2023 following an offseason facelift.

One thing about America’s Pastime that has not changed? For what seems like the 37th year in a row, the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees walked into training camp as the lead dogs in the 2023 World Series odds market.

However, the gap separating that power trio from the next tier of contenders has narrowed considerably following a flurry of Hot Stove free agent activity.

Can we sell you on a 2023 Fall Classic pitting the Philadelphia Phillies against the Toronto Blue Jays for the first time in three decades? What about a clash between two franchises that have never won a title (the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners)?

If you believe the numbers on the World Series odds board, either matchup is plausible.

With MLB’s first exhibition games less than a week away, let’s examine those numbers with a deep dive into World Series odds and betting action.

Odds updated as of 5 a.m. ET on Feb. 18.

World Series odds

The first thing that jumps out when glancing at odds to win the 2023 World Series: The Dodgers aren’t sitting at the top.

After entering the last two seasons as the clear-cut World Series favorite, Los Angeles has ceded the top spot to the defending champion Astros.

Houston is coming off its second title in five years — and first without the taint of a cheating scandal — after upending the upstart Phillies in the 2022 Fall Classic, winning a thrilling best-of-7 series in six games.

Just how loaded are the Astros? They lost staff ace and reigning American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander to the New York Mets in free agency. Yet they’re still favored to become the first team to successfully defend their title since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000.

Then again, Houston — which began last season with +1000 World Series odds — isn’t anywhere near a runaway preseason favorite.

The reigning champs are as low as +500 at Caesars Sportsbook. However, they’re one of four teams at Caesars and BetMGM — and one of five at FanDuel — to have odds of +800 or shorter.

In fact, FanDuel has the Astros (+600) and Dodgers (+750) as the top two contenders, with the Yankees, Mets and Atlanta Braves all right on their heels at +800.

In all, nine of MLB’s 30 teams (30%) reported to training camp with World Series odds of less than +2000 at all three sportsbooks.

Joining Houston, Los Angeles, Atlanta and both New York clubs as legit contenders are San Diego, Philadelphia, Toronto and Seattle.

Not surprisingly, all nine of those squads appeared in the 2022 postseason, the first year that MLB’s playoffs expanded to 12 teams.

Which dark horses have a shot to see the light?

When the first pitch of the 2022 MLB season was thrown, the Phillies were +1300 to win the National League and +2500 to take home the World Series trophy.

By the All-Star break, those odds had stretched out to +2000 and +4000, respectively.

Yet despite nabbing the NL’s final postseason berth — and having the worst record of any of the 12 playoff qualifiers — Philadelphia made a stirring run to its first Fall Classic since 2009.

So which MLB club currently sitting down the odds board has a shot to be “the Phillies” of 2023?

Let’s start with the only playoff teams from 2022 that aren’t among the top nine favorites: the St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians.

Those three squads all have +2500 odds to win the World Series at BetMGM.

St. Louis’ price is shorter at FanDuel (+2000) and Caesars (+2200); Tampa Bay’s best odds are at BetMGM and Caesars (both +2500); and Cleveland is all the way out to +3300 at Caesars.

The next batch of teams on the World Series odds board are all priced at +4000 or longer.

The most intriguing American League long shot? We like the Baltimore Orioles, who range from +6600 (BetMGM and Caesars) to +10000 (FanDuel).

Baltimore posted 31 more victories in 2022 (83-79) than 2021 (52-110). That remarkable improvement suggests the team’s nucleus of young talent — both on the mound and at the plate — is starting to come together.

The big issue with the O’s: They play in the gauntlet that is the American League East.

However, MLB brought back balanced schedules this season, which means fewer divisional games for each team. In fact, this is the first year in which every team will play at least one series against the other 29 clubs.

Over in the NL, the Milwaukee Brewers look like a strong bounce-back candidate. The 2022 Brewers finished with a solid 86-76 record, but it wasn’t solid enough to extend a franchise-record streak of four consecutive playoff appearances.

No, Milwaukee didn’t add much in the offseason. But it didn’t lose much, either.

More importantly, the Brewers still have a terrific 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with 2021 Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. And late in games, the Brewers get to hand the ball to lights-out closer Devin Williams.

Tracking the World Series betting action

One reason why we believe both Milwaukee and Baltimore are good bets right now? Both teams have seen their World Series odds skyrocket at BetMGM.

The Brewers have shot up from an opener of +3500 to +6600, while the Orioles’ World Series odds have nearly doubled (from +2200 to +4000).

While we see value in Milwaukee and Baltimore, a sizable percentage of BetMGM’s customers are backing two other teams — one contender and one semi-long shot.

As of Thursday, the Mets (+750) and Guardians (+2500) ranked 1-2 in both number of World Series bets made and amount of World Series cash wagered at BetMGM.

The book reported that 11.0% of all tickets and 16.6% of all dollars were backing New York. Cleveland is second in tickets (8.7%) and money (10.7%).

From there, the Phillies (7.9%), Yankees (7.6%), Astros (7.3%) and Padres (6.9%) round out the top six in terms of ticket count.

On the handle side, the Astros (10.6%), Yankees (9.2%), Phillies (8.3%) and Padres (6.3%) fall in line behind the Mets and Guardians.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.