Würth 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Who Will Tame The Monster Mile?

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29 April 2023

Würth 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Who Will Tame The Monster Mile?

For the first time this season, the NASCAR Cup Series will venture up to the northeast for a race. Dover Motor Speedway will round out the April segment of the calendar when it hosts the Würth 400 on Sunday afternoon. Here are our Würth 400 predictions.

With a concrete surface and 24 degrees of banking in the turns, Dover is a force to be reckoned with. The track has earned its nickname of “The Monster Mile” thanks to its propensity to cause multi-car pile-ups. The combination of concrete with a one-mile distance requires drivers to have speed in their cars and to operate with precision behind the wheel.

After hosting two races annually for several years, Dover has held only one NASCAR weekend beginning in 2021. Alex Bowman was victorious in the ‘21 race as part of a 1-2-3-4 finish for Hendrick Motorsports. Last year saw HMS return to victory lane with Chase Elliott taking the checkered flag. Will any other race team be able to challenge the Hendrick cars this weekend?

Here are our best bets and 2023 Würth 400 picks for Sunday’s action at Dover Motor Speedway (odds via FanDuel, SuperBook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Würth 400 picks

Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+1200 via FanDuel) ⭐
Top 3 finish: Kyle Larson (+160 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Group E matchup: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+265 via SuperBook) vs. Daniel Suarez, Ty Gibbs and Ryan Preece ⭐⭐⭐

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Würth 400 odds

Würth 400 predictions

Outright winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+1200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Dover Motor Speedway is one of several NASCAR circuits that fall under the “Martin Truex Jr. home tracks” umbrella. Although Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet have dominated here in each of the last two years, Truex has enough favorable history to make for an intriguing outright selection this week.

Over the course of his lengthy Cup Series career, Truex has gone to victory lane three times at “The Monster Mile.” The most recent of these wins came in the spring of 2019 and marked the first of a four-race stretch where he finished no worse than second here.

Admittedly, the last two trips to Dover have not gone quite as well for the former series champion. Truex was just 19th here in 2021 and 12th last year. However, those two results are outliers when it comes to a larger sample size. In his last 12 starts, Truex has been a top-10 car nine times. Among those finishes are a pair of wins and six top-3 showings.

Truex has 31 Cup Series race wins in his career but has failed to find victory lane since the Fall of 2021. Needless to say, he is overdue to return. With most sportsbooks listing his outright odds at 9- or 10-1, FanDuel’s +1200 price offers considerable value compared to most outlets.

Top 3 finish: Kyle Larson (+160 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Last week at Talladega, Kyle Larson was one-half of a nasty collision that left the right side of his car completely destroyed. It was a hit that no doubt left him feeling sore, but that hasn’t prevented oddsmakers from listing him as the prohibitive betting favorite to win the Würth 400. Given Larson’s track record at “The Monster Mile,” it’s easy to see why.

To date, Larson has made a total of 14 NASCAR Cup Series starts at Dover. Incredibly, he has only finished worse than 12th once. Eleven of those starts have seen him finish top-10, and a Fall 2019 outright win highlights the six top-3 results that he has accumulated. In his last eight starts here dating back through 2017, Larson owns a 5.1 average finish.

Given how brilliantly Larson has tamed “The Monster Mile” over the course of his career and how well the No. 5 team has been running on a weekly basis this season, it’s hard to bet against him this week. SuperBook’s top-3 price of +160 is the line to target. Other major shops are listing Larson as low as +140 to achieve a podium finish.

Group E matchup: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+265 via SuperBook) vs. Daniel Suarez, Ty Gibbs and Ryan Preece ⭐⭐⭐

Historically speaking, none of the four drivers found in this Group E matchup prop have an eye-opening history at Dover. However, the driver who turned some heads with his performance on the one-mile concrete oval a year ago was Ricky Stenhouse Jr. In the Next Gen Car’s debut race at the track, Stenhouse piloted the No. 47 Chevrolet to a runner-up finish.

While last year’s result was by far the best of his career here, Stenhouse does have a few other noteworthy showings in the past. A ninth-place run in 2018 and a 10th-place finish in ‘20 give him three top-10s in his last seven starts. Remove a pair of DNFs from the equation and Stenhouse has come home 20th or better in seven of the last nine races.

Of the drivers joining Stenhouse in Group E, Daniel Suarez would appear to be the greatest threat. Suarez had several quality runs here in the past but only one top-10 in his last six starts. He was 14th in the Next Gen Car last year. Meanwhile, Ryan Preece has never finished better than 18th, and this will be Ty Gibbs’ first start in a Cup car.

It’s also worth noting the apparent momentum that Stenhouse has been building in recent weeks. After winning the Daytona 500, JTG Daugherty Racing scuffled for a few weeks. However, Stenhouse has now finished fourth, eighth, and 15th (with damage) in the last three races. At +265 odds, he is worth a look to win this four-man horse race.