Xavier open as four-point underdogs to Texas in Sweet 16 matchup

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One year to the day of accepting the job as head coach of the Xavier Musketeers, Sean Miller has them playing in the second week of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six years.

An 84-73 win over the Pittsburgh Panthers on Sunday moved the No. 3-seeded Musketeers on to the Midwest Region semifinals against the No. 2 Texas Longhorns. Texas beat No. 10 Penn State 71-66 to advance.

Oddsmakers are leaning toward the lower-seeded Longhorns to win this Sweet 16 matchup. Texas opened as a 4-point betting favorite. This game will be played Friday, March 24 in Kansas City at a start time to be determined.

Texas (27-8, 18-17 ATS) and Xavier (26-9, 18-16-1) will be meeting for the sixth time. The Longhorns are holding a 3-2 straight up edge in the series. They’ve met twice previously in the NCAA Tournament, with each school coming away with a victory.

Both of those games were also regional semifinal contests. And in each instance, the lower-seeded team wound up as the victor. In 2003-04, No. 7 seed Xavier downed No. 3 Texas 79-71 in the South Region semifinals. Texas was a 3.5-point favorite in that game. They also met in the 1990 Midwest Region semis. Playing basically at home in Dallas, the No. 10 Longhorns whipped the No. 6 Musketeers 102-89.

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Their most recent meeting was in the second round of the 2018-19 NIT. Interestingly, Texas was a two seed and Xavier a three seed. It was the Longhorns who won 78-76 in overtime. However, the Musketeers covered as 4.5-point underdogs, meaning Xavier is 2-0 against the spread in the last two games agains Texas.

Each of the last two Texas-Xavier clashes have gone over the total. In this instance, the total is set at 150.5 points. The over was the winning play in five of the Musketeers’ last eight games. Texas is 0-6-1 on the total through the past seven games.

The Longhorns have won six in a row straight up and are 6-0-1 against the spread over their last seven games. Xavier is 7-1 SU over the past eight games, but just 2-4 ATS in their last six contests.

Living next door to one of the Xavier players would be a delight, because they’re always willing to help out their fellow man. Xavier is leading the NCAA in assists, averaging 19.2 helpers per game.

Of their 19 made baskets during the first half of the win over Pittsburgh, the Musketeers dished out 17 assists. That level of unselfishness helped them take a 48-34 scoreboard advantage into the locker room at halftime. The Panthers never drew closer than within eight points of Xavier during the second half.

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The sharing of the basketball was evident in the final totals for the Musketeers. All five starters finished with double digits in points. That level of unselfish play has also enabled Xavier to overcome the loss of forward Zach Fremantle. Second on the team in scoring (15.2 points per game), he’s out for the season with a foot injury.

Forward Jack Nunge paced the Xavier attack against Pitt with 18 points. Guard Adam Kunkel contributed 15 points via five three-pointers. Guard Colby Jones counted a double-double with 10 points and 14 rebounds, while also distributing seven assists. Guard Souley Boum and forward Jerome Hunter were each good for 14 points.

Their ability to move the ball so fluidly enables the Musketeers to almost always engineer quality shot opportunities. Xavier rates No. 8 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the Torvik rankings.

The Longhorns were Big 12 Tournament champions. They survived a scare from a plucky bunch of Nittany Lions in the second round. In guards Marcus Carr (15.8 ppg), Sir’Jabari Rice (12.9 ppg) and Tyrese Hunter (10.1 ppg), they have plenty of backcourt offense. Forward Timmy Allen (10.3 ppg) is also a double-digit scorer and is pulling down a team-high 5.8 rebounds per game.

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However, is was forward Dylan Disu (9.1 ppg) who stepped up to lead the way against Penn State. He scored 28 points and grabbed 10 boards. That can’t happen against the balanced attack of Xavier. The Longhorns will need their best players to be their best players.

The most vital element of basketball today is the three-point shot and this is where Xavier is holding a decisive edge. The Musketeers are fourth in the nation in three-point percentage (39.12%). Texas is 169th in this statistical category (34.12). If the Longhorns can’t defense the Musketeers from long range, an upset will be in the making.

Pick: Xavier Musketeers +4 (-110).

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