NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
The 2024 NCAA Tournament is approaching. Our bubble watch dives into every at-large contender and what they must do to prove they belong in March Madness.
Reaching the NCAA Tournament is a significant accomplishment for any team in college basketball. Not every path to the Big Dance is created equal, though. The at-large selection process includes finding a balance across results, metrics, and the eye test. As each season progresses, bracketology looks into which teams have the best odds at making the field and how they might be seeded.
The Heat Check CBB Bubble Watch page dives into every team competing for NCAA Tournament at-large bids. The piece categorizes each team by their bubble status and provides individual breakdowns of their resumes. Want to find out what your team needs to do moving forward? The 2023 March Madness Bubble Watch has it covered.
For those who are new to our Bubble Watch column, here is a breakdown of the categories:
To fast-forward to a specific conference, click here:
Metrics and resumes are current through the morning of January 31, 2024.
Big East
- Deadbolt lock: UConn, Marquette
- Safely in the field: Creighton
- Some perspiration: St. John’s
- Double the deodorant: Providence, Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier
- On the periphery: None
Creighton Bluejays
The Bluejays entered this season with sky-high expectations, and sans a few hiccups, they have risen to the challenge. Creighton started a bit slowly but has won seven of its last eight games, with the lone loss coming at UConn. They are 7-5 across the upper two quadrants with no bad losses and teamsheet ranks universally in the national top 25. Creighton also played a top-100 nonconference strength of schedule and already owns five true road wins. Greg McDermott’s group is safely in the field and firmly in the mix for a protected seed.
St. John’s Red Storm
St. John’s making the NCAA Tournament in Rick Pitino’s first year is not a sure thing, but the team has put itself in pretty solid positioning. The Red Storm rank in the top 52 across all teamsheet metrics and are 7-6 against the upper two quadrants. However, they are without an elite-level win, and their only victory over a “safely in the field” or better team came at a neutral site over Utah. Their next-best wins — Villanova (twice), Providence, Butler, and Xavier — are all over bubble teams. An early-season loss to Michigan is not aging well, either. The Red Storm appear to be in good shape as a projected single-digit seed at the moment, but KenPom marks them as underdogs in four of the next five games — a pivotal stretch to remain in quality positioning.
Providence Friars
Having beaten both Wisconsin and Marquette, Providence’s resume features two of the best home wins in the country. But how will the committee grade those victories considering they came with Bryce Hopkins? Those wins will still matter, certainly, but Providence will be especially graded based on how it performs without its star forward. Hopkins was injured back on Jan. 3; including that game, Providence is just 3-4 without him, with two of the wins coming over DePaul and Georgetown. For now, the Friars remain on the right side of the cutline thanks to solid metrics and five Q1+2 wins. There are some other items to note with the Friars, though. Firstly, the nonconference schedule featured zero Q3 games and seven Q4 games. Secondly, the schedule ahead is brutal: at UConn, at Villanova, vs. Creighton, at Butler.
Butler Bulldogs
Butler was not expected to be in the bubble conversation this season, but Thad Matta’s transfer additions have exceeded expectations. At least right now, Butler’s resume relies on featuring several wins over the projected field. Using the Bracket Matrix as a base, the Bulldogs have beaten four teams projected in the field, including two away from home: Marquette (A), Texas Tech (H), Boise State (N), and Villanova (H). They also have yet to suffer a loss outside the top two quadrants. Just a 4-7 record in Q1+2 leaves some to be desired, as do metrics ranging between 50-70, but they are in the mix with a solid NCSOS and those high-quality wins. Butler’s season will come down to an upcoming murderer’s row of eight straight games against NCAA Tournament contending teams: at Creighton, at UConn, vs. Providence, vs. Marquette, vs. Creighton, at Villanova, at Seton Hall, vs. St. John’s. Butler can play its way safely into the field or fall entirely off the bubble in a hurry. For now, the Bulldogs are right around the cutline.
Seton Hall Pirates
It is not often that a Quadrant 4 victory this late in the season drastically impacts a team’s resume, but Seton Hall’s demolition of DePaul may qualify. The Pirates’ metrics lagged behind the rest of the bubble after a three-game losing streak, but they bounced back quickly after a 43-point road win. They climbed 12 spots on KenPom and 10 spots in the NET, for instance. Seton Hall’s resume still features four Q1 wins and is now in line with the rest of the bubble regarding metrics. Road wins over fellow bubble teams in Providence and Butler could go a long way down the stretch, as could home wins over UConn and Marquette. Seton Hall already has four true road wins. Seton Hall is hovering around the cutline right now but should be on the correct side heading into a full week off.
Villanova Wildcats
In its most recent game, Villanova fell behind Marquette early at home before storming back to take a second-half lead — which was eventually squandered. In some ways, it was a microcosm of the season. Villanova fell behind early with a road loss to Penn but bounced back with neutral-site wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina and Memphis. Then, the Wildcats dropped three straight to KenPom sub-75 opponents, only to respond with wins over Creighton and Xavier. Now, though, a five-game losing streak has dealt a significant blow to Villanova’s NCAA Tournament hopes. They are just 11-10 overall with resume metric averages nearing the 70s. Even their substantial collection of great wins and top-40 quality metrics probably wouldn’t keep them in the field at the moment. Villanova has to finish strong.
Xavier Musketeers
Xavier ranks No. 1 in strength of schedule this season. That fact keeps the Musketeers in the bubble conversation despite just a 10-10 record, including only 6-10 against the upper three quadrants. They are also only 1-5 on the road. Up until a recent 43-point loss at UConn, Xavier had also played many of its losses against great teams close, which kept its metrics in excellent standing. In fact, the Musketeers are still top-50 in both BPI and KenPom. The path forward is simple for Xavier: it has to start winning some games. The Musketeers have to finish at least two or three games above-.500 to make the field, which would mean rattling off a very strong finish in a tough conference. Xavier must defend the Cintas Center, where it plays three of its next four games; it has already lost four home games this year.
Log in to your HC+ account or to view this content.
