XFL Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Week 4
For the first time this season, the St. Louis BattleHawks are set to play in front of their home fans. This combined with a nonexistent Arlington Renegades rushing attack leads to St. Louis being among our XFL best bets in Week 4.
College basketball conference tournaments may be taking center stage, but bettors will still be able to get their football fix this weekend. Week 4 of the XFL is set to feature a primetime doubleheader on Saturday followed by two more evening games on Sunday.
With each passing week of play, we continue to gain further clarity on the strengths and weaknesses of each team. The Houston Roughnecks’ defense continues to stand out while last week’s game between the BattleHawks and DC Defenders provided plenty of fireworks. All three of these teams are priced as betting favorites in their respective Week 4 matchups.
Here are our XFL best bets for Week 4 (odds via DraftKings and SuperBook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
XFL Week 4 schedule and odds
- Houston Roughnecks (-9) vs. Orlando Guardians
- San Antonio Brahmas vs. Seattle Sea Dragons (-4.5)
- Arlington Renegades vs. St. Louis BattleHawks (-4)
- Vegas Vipers vs. DC Defenders (-6)
Week 4 XFL best bets
- Roughnecks -9 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐
- BattleHawks -4 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Renegades ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Vipers vs. Defenders Over 41 (-110 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐
XFL top picks for Week 4
Roughnecks -9 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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The Roughnecks haven’t played anywhere close to perfect in each of the last two weeks. Despite this, Houston was able to cover as a betting favorite against both Arlington and San Antonio. Wade Phillips’ defense continues to dominate, and there’s little to suggest that this will change on Saturday against the Guardians.
When these two teams first met this season in Week 1, the Roughnecks controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and earned a dominant 33-12 victory. The one wrinkle that Houston faces this week is that it will be the team’s first road game of the season. However, playing at home hasn’t exactly helped Orlando by an immense measure thus far. The Guardians were blown out by San Antonio in Week 2 before losing by a single point to Arlington last week.
Orlando’s offense remains impossible to trust with Paxton Lynch under center and limited talent on the perimeter. This sentiment is only magnified in a matchup against the Roughnecks’ lethal defensive front. Even if the Guardians’ defense manages to force a turnover or two, concerns remain about the offense’s ability to take advantage.
While nine points is a lot to lay, bettors should not wane from backing Houston at this juncture. This is arguably a matchup between the best and worst teams in the XFL through three weeks. The Roughnecks are by far the more impressive team on both sides of the ball.
BattleHawks -4 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The BattleHawks may have come up short last week against D.C., but there were still positives to take away from the game. For the first time all season, QB A.J. McCarron and the offense were able to find their groove before the final quarter. The resulting 28-point output was made all the more impressive by the fact that they were going up against an aggressive defensive opponent.
Speaking of defensive aggression, the Renegades have thrived at forcing turnovers so far this season. Arlington forced another two takeaways in last week’s win over Orlando, but the offense failed to do much in the game as a whole. With Kyle Sloter under center, many were expecting more out of the Renegades’ offense than what the unit has ultimately produced thus far.
Through three games, the BattleHawks’ defense has struggled mightily against the run. Luckily for St. Louis, the Renegades don’t look to be capable of fully exploiting this weakness. Arlington comes in averaging only 2.5 yards per carry on the season which is by far the worst mark in the entire XFL.
Provided that McCarron and the offense can pick up where they left off last week and take care of the football, the BattleHawks figure to be more than capable of covering as four-point favorites. Bettors should also consider the fact that this is St. Louis’ first home game of the year. If the raucous crowds we saw here in 2020 are any indication, the BattleHawks figure to have a decisive home-field advantage.
Vipers-Defenders Over 41 (-110 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐
It should come as no surprise that scoring has gradually been rising in general across the league. This trend only figures to continue as the season progresses and the offenses become more comfortable and cohesive. With this in mind, Sunday night’s showdown between the Vipers and the Defenders has a real chance to play out much differently than when these teams first met in Week 2.
For Vegas, Brett Hundley made his first start at quarterback last week after taking over mid-game against D.C. in Week 2. His presence under center provided a clear spark to what was a struggling offense. Despite completing less than 50% of his passes, Hundley still threw for over 200 yards and two scores. He also finished as the Vipers’ leading rusher. His dual-threat capabilities certainly add an element to the Vegas attack.
When these teams played two weeks ago, the Defenders ran the ball at will. All four ball carriers averaged north of four yards per carry in that game as D.C. totaled 229 rushing yards as a team. While the Defenders were once again able to win in the trenches against St. Louis last week, Vegas gave up another 143 yards rushing to what is clearly a pass-oriented Seattle offense.
Needless to say, it will take a major improvement on the part of the Vipers’ defense in order for them to contain D.C.’s ground game. Couple this with the offensive spark Hundley has provided and Sunday’s matchup will presumably see both teams put up points. Relative to other books in the market, bettors can obtain a half-point of value on this line at SuperBook.
XFL best bets for Week 4 made 03/10/2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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