Yankees postseason odds are plummeting at the wrong time

Sure, the New York Yankees are not far out of a Wild Card berth based on the standings, but Fangraphs have hammered the final nail in the coffin.

The New York Yankees 2023 season has been a rough watch, especially for fans. Sure, they had their fair share of injuries, but so does every other MLB team. But, they were unable to win the winnable games and look downright outmatched against some of the top organizations in the league.

On Sunday, the Yankees blew a 7-3 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins after a brutal outing by closer Clay Holmes, and a questionable decision by manager Aaron Boone to not walk Jake Burger, one of their hottest hitters. Then on Monday night, the Yankees hit the road again to play the Atlanta Braves, and that went as well as you would have expected. An 11-2 loss, after starter Clarke Schmidt surrendered eight earned runs on nine hits in just 2.1 innings.

With these latest losses, the Yankees are 5.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the last AL Wild Card spot. Sure that’s not that far back, which has been stressed ad nauseam by numerous talking heads. But watching the games shows that the math doesn’t match.

Fangraphs keeps tabs on the games and updates every team’s postseason odds. As of Tuesday morning, the Yankees have just a 5.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Yankees’ postseason odds take a massive hit

General manager Brian Cashman declared after not selling or buying substantially that the team was “in it to win it.” Well, that hasn’t been the case. As professional wrestler, Scott Steiner, once said in a famous 2008 promo, “The numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you.”

The decision to not bring in any help has backfired. Their once position of strength, their starting rotation, was ravaged by injuries and off-field issues. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are on the injured list, while German entered rehabilitation for alcohol abuse. Not to mention while their bats have improved, they haven’t been enough to dig themselves out of a hole.

In terms of the record, they are 5-8 since the trade deadline passed. The Yankees haven’t won a single series since they swept the Kansas City Royals (July 21-23).

On Tuesday night, the Yankees are throwing Luis Severino on the mound against the best hitting team in the league. Severino has an 8.06 ERA and opposing players are batting .332 against him this season.

After the Braves series, they face the Boston Red Sox in a three-game series. The Red Sox have a 17.2 percent chance of making the postseason, per Fangraphs.

Could a resurgence for the Yankees happen? It’s possible, as there is over a month left in the season. But based on how they have played, the odds are slim, as Fangraphs shows.